Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. USD/JPY is buoyed by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.75 versus 79.60 early Monday) on stronger-than-expected 1.1% increase in the U.S. March retail sales, its biggest gain since September 2012 (versus +0.8% forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields, demand from Japan's importers and yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 5.4% to 16.11; S&P rose 0.82% overnight) on upbeat 1Q results from Citigroup and strong U.S. retail sales. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exportsr sales, diminished expectations of further easing from the Bank of Japan and lingering concerns over the crisis in Ukraine.
Technical сomment:
Daily chart mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.45. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 10120. The pivot point stands at 102.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 103.
Resistance levels:
102.65
103
103.25
Support levels:
101.45
101.20
100.80
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