Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-one-month low of 101.20 Monday. It is undermined by the flows to safe-haven JPY and selling of the yen crosses amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 14.29% to 16.00, S&P fell 0.74% overnight) on heightened concerns over political crisis in Ukraine. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japan's exports sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers, loose BOJ monetary policy, and positive U.S. dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.06 versus 79.84 early Monday) after stronger-than-expected rise in ISM manufacturing PMI to 53.2 in February from 51.3 in January (versus 52.5 forecast), surprise 0.1% rise in U.S. January construction spending (versus forecast 0.5% fall), higher Markit final U.S. February manufacturing PMI of 57.1 (versus initial estimate of 56.7), higher-than-expected 0.4% increase in the U.S. January personal spending (versus +0.1% forecast).
Technical сomment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five day moving average is below the 15-day MA and is declining.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.20 and the second target at 102.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.30. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.15. The pivot point is at 101.50.
Resistance levels:
102.20
102.45
102.85
Support levels:
101.30
101.15
100.85
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