Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.09% to 14.02; S&P rose 0.44% overnight) as speculation grew that China could adopt a fresh round of stimulus measures to bolster growth, comments from Fed's Plosser and a mixed bag of U.S. economic releases deflated concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected. Plosser said last week's Fed meeting did not reflect a fundamental shift in the central bank's policy, and that he was "a bit surprised" by the market reaction. U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index rose stronger than expected to 82.3 in March from 78.3 in February (versus 78.6 forecast), but U.S. January S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index post a smaller-than-expected 13.2% on-year increase (versus +13.5% forecast), Richmond Fed's manufacturing current business conditions index fell to -7 in March, its lowest since July 2013, from -6 in February; while U.S. February new home sales fell bigger-than-expected 3.3% to 440,000 (versus 445,000 forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and investment trusts and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and weaker USD demand on diminished expectations for earlier rate rise.
Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bullish mode; but stochastics is neutral, 15-day moving average is meandering sideways.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 102.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 102.
Resistance levels:
102.65
102.85
103.15
Support levels:
101.75
101.45
101
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