USD/CAD Wave Analysis for October 16, 2012 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave

Since our last analysis the USD/CAD pair was trading in an upward move, developing corrective wave (2) (coloured green) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured orange). Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement from 0.9810 towards the 0.9768 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this major pair started pushing higher and price retraced back to 0.9810 level. Today the USD/CAD pair finished developing of the (2) wave (coloured green) at 0.9824 level. We are expecting to see price around 0.9706 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci Extensions (0.9834-0.9762-0.9924), with Take Profit at 0.9750 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 0.9706 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9835 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor CAD Foreign Securities Purchases, Manufacturing Production m/m and U.S. Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9753 (S2) 0.9769 (S1) 0.9779 (PP) 0.9795 (R1) 0.9811 (R2) 0.9821 (R3) 0.9837

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9795 with Stop Loss 0.9835, Take Profit 1 at 0.9695 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9706 are recommended.

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