Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 1 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The impulsive rally from a low of 133.07 continues to unfold as expected. In the short term, we are looking for a move closer to resistance at 136.57 to end blue wave iii and call for a small correction in blue wave iv towards 135.86 and maybe even 135.47 before moving higher to 137.52.

As we are in a new impulsive rally, we should be looking for a continuation higher with the next major upside target at 144.03.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.20 and will move our stop higher to 135.25. If you are not long EUR yet, buy in the area around 135.47 - 135.86 with the stop at 135.25.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview: USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a lower range after hitting the 12.5-year high of 124.46 on Thursday. USD/JPY is undermined by the softer USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.87 versus 97.29 early Thursday) as more-than-expected 282,000 US jobless claims in the week ended May 23 (versus forecast 272,000) offset stronger-than-expected 3.4% increase in the US April pending home sales (versus forecast +1.0%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower shorter-dated US Treasury yields (2-year at 0.628% versus 0.652% late Wednesday), diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 0.3% to 13.31, S&P 500 closed 0.13% lower at 2,120.79 overnight) following a steep drop in the Chinese stocks Thursday (Shanghai Composite Index plunged 6.5%), Japan's exports and profit-taking on long-USD positions ahead of the weekend. But USD sentiment is soothed by the comments from Fed's Williams that the US central bank is likely to raise interest rates this year and start the gradual process of the monetary policy normalization. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.30 and the second target at 124.80. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.85 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.45. The pivot point is at 123.40.

Resistance levels: 124.30 124.80 125.50

Support levels: 122.85 122.45 121.70

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the softer USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.87 versus 97.29 early Thursday) as more-than-expected 282,000 US jobless claims in the week ended May 23 (versus forecast 272,000) offset stronger-than-expected 3.4% increase in the US April pending home sales (versus forecast +1.0%). The pair is also supported by the franc demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the negative Swiss interest rates, the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9335. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9280. The pivot point stands at 0.9480. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9515 and the second target at 0.9550.

Resistance levels: 0.9515 0.9550 0.9610

Support levels: 0.9335 0.9280 0.9245

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting the four-year low of 0.7127 on Thursday. It is undermined by the contagion from the weak Aussie after disappointing Australian Q1 capital expenditure data, diminished investor risk appetite, and the 1.7% drop in the New Zealand April building consents. The pair is alsoo bosted by soft dairy prices, the kiwi sales on the buoyant EUR/NZD cross, and speculation that the RBNZ would cut interest rate in the coming months. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the softer USD sentiment, NZD-USD interest differential, and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7090. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7030. The pivot point stands at 0.7210. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7270 and the second target at 0.730.

Resistance levels: 0.7270 0.73 0.7350

Support levels: 0.7090 0.7030 0.7

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental outlook: GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the improved euro sentiment and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 190 and the second target at 190.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 188.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 187.80. The pivot point is at 190.05.

Resistance levels: 190.60 191.20 191.75

Support levels: 188.60 187.80 187

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EUR/NZD : analysis for May 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5411 in a high volume. The short-term trend is bullish. According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand in a high volume with a strong price action. According to the H1 time frame, the price had tested the level of 1.5400 and we saw a weak price action, which is a sign of potential bearish correction. Buying looks risky since we are in the bullish trend and we got strong bullish activity in the background. Anyway, watch for potential buying opportunities after the bearish correction (buy on dips). Major resistance is at 1.5400. So, watch for buying opportunities above the level of 1.5400. If the price breaks the level of 1.5400 in a high volume, the resistance levels will be set at 1.5460 and 1.5800.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5280

R2: 1.5350

R3: 1.5460

Support levels:

S1: 1.5060

S2: 1.4990

S3: 1.4880

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage since we can observe strong a bullish activity (volume) in the background and broken supply trendline.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 29, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The weekly chart illustrates a 10-month bullish swing that extended between price levels of 1.2200 and 1.5800.

For several times, Fibo level 50% of the same bullish swing has provided significant support for the EUR/AUD pair.

Successive signs of a bearish pressure have been shown on the chart. However, the bullish breakout above the depicted downtrend was executed on April 30.

For a few weeks, the EUR/AUD pair has been trapped between the levels of 1.4000 and 1.4350 (Prominent daily resistance corresponding to previous daily tops).

If price zone of 1.4350-1.4400 remains defended by bears, a bearish pullback should be expected towards 1.4000 shortly after.

On the other hand, daily fixation above 1.4350 (range breakout) is likely to pause the long-term bearish tendency of the market.

It exposes higher price levels such as 1.4444 and 1.4550 for a quick visit.

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