Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 99.19 versus 99.67 early Thursday) after a surprise 0.6% on-month drop in US February retail sales (versus forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower shorter-dated US Treasury yields (2-year at 0.664% versus 0.688% late Wednesday) and Japan's exports. But the USD sentiment is soothed by fewer-than-expected U.S. jobless claims of 289,000 for the week ended on March 7 (versus forecast 305,000), a higher-than-expected on-month rise of 0.4% in U.S. February import price index (forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY downside is also limited by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 8.6% to 15.42; S&P 500 closed up 1.26% at 2,065.95 overnight) as the weak report on US retail sales gives the Fed more leeway to hold off before raising rates. USD/JPY downside is also tempered by demand from the Japanese importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.90 and the second target at 120.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.50. The pivot point is at 121.65.

Resistance levels:

122

122.50

122.75

Support levels:

120.90

120.60

120.20

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EUR/NZD analysis for March 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.4324 in a high volume. We can observe a successful rejection from our resistance level around the price of 1.4465 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The short- and mid-term trends are bearish and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after corrections. I found a range zone according to 30-minute time frame around the price of 1.4390-1.4300. According to the long-term time frames, we may see a possible testing of Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.3550. If the price breaks the level of 1.4290, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1.4175 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%).

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4472

R2: 1.4521

R3: 1.4600

Support levels:

S1: 1.4315

S2: 1.4266

S3: 1.4188

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement (after bullish correction).

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a four-day high of 0.7442 on Thursday. Kiwi sentiment is boosted by the 5.2-point rise in seasonally adjusted BusinessNZ manufacturing index to 55.9 in February from the previous month. NZD/USD is also supported by the NZD-USD yield differential, weaker dollar sentiment, kiwi demand on the buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion, and kiwi demand on the soft EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD crosses and on the buoyant NZD/CAD and NZD/CHF crosses. The NZD/USD gains are tempered by kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD cross and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is bullish at oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7380 and the second target at 0.7445. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7215. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7180. The pivot point is at 0.7275.

Resistance levels:

0.7380

0.7445

0.75

Support levels:

0.7215

0.7180

0.7150

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range.It is underpinned by positive investor risk sentiment, the stronger EUR/USD undertone and demand from the Japanese importers. The GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exports and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold levels. Inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 178. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 177.25. The pivot point stands at 180.16. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 180.80 and the second target at 181.75.

Resistance levels:

180.80

181.75

182.35

Support levels:
178

177.25

176.75

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Gold analysis for March 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of $1,151.22 in a high volume. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance and have got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,164.00 (successfully tested). My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe supply in a high voume. If the price breaks the level of $1,150.00 (the long-term support), we may see a potential testing of the level of $1,143.00 and $1,139.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels :

R1: 1,161.98

R2: 1,166.28

R3: 1,173.23

Support levels :

S1: 1,148.08

S2: 1,143.78

S3: 1,136.83

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement.

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Daily analysis of USDX for March 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The instrument is still inside the valid bullish pattern formation on the daily chart because the USDX is above the support level of 99.19 and it is trying to reach the next resistance at the level of 100.49. A breakout of that zone will unleash the bullish momentum and the USDX will reach the resistance level of 101.60 in the near term.

On the H1 chart the USDX is making a rebound at the support level of 99.13 and probably the instrument will test the resistance level of 100.01 again. As we expected, that zone will produce some pullbacks in the USDX because the bullish trend is currently reaching extreme zones and the instrument will start making more deep corrective moves eventually.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 100.49 / 101.60

Dailychart's support levels: 99.19 / 98.01

H1 chart's resistance levels: 100.01 / 100.88

H1 chart's support levels: 99.13 / 97.93

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 100.01, take profit is at 100.88, and stop loss is at 99.13.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

On the daily chart the pair is still showing a solid bearish structure and it is getting ready for breaking the support level of 1.4820. Remember that low is very important as that level is a fresh multi-year low. For now, we could expect a bearish pattern formation and, more probably, some retracements because the GBP/USD pair will reach oversold levels in lower time frames soon.

The GBP/USD pair will finish developing a lower low pattern formation on the H1 chart because the pair is doing a breakout at the support level of 1.4844. To the downside, the pair will find a support at the zone of 1.4746. Also, GBP/USD will get more bearish momentum in the near term because the MACD indicator is still in a solid negative territory.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.4948 / 1.5086

Dailychart's support levels: 1.4820 / 1.4649

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4891 / 1.4948

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4844 / 1.4746

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4844, take profit is at 1.4746, and stop loss is at 1.4940.

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