GBP/CHF breaks down; selling on rallies favoured Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair has broken down the intermediary support line last week as depicted here. Furthermore, the initial support of 1.40 levels has also been tested again before the pullback last Friday. The recommended trade strategy would be to sell rallies from here on. Prices are at past support turned resistance zone at the moment around the 1.4200/20 levels, and likely to head lower. The 1.44 level would be acting as strong resistance now and all counter rallies should be well capped below that. The trend line resistance is around 1.43 now; hence initiating short positions now and around the 1.43 level would be a better strategy. Looking lower in the sessions to come by.

Trading recommendations:

Sell now and around the 1.4300 region, stop above 1.4450, target open.

Good luck!

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for August 2, 2013 Trend News

Gold has broken downwards as expected. Once the trend lines were broken, the downward move was only a matter of time to arrive. In yesterday's analysis we also mentioned that we would add to short positions once 1,301 was broken with 1,286 as the first target.

Trend is down both in short and longer term. Intermediate-term trend is challenged at 1,260. We expect the downward move to continue lower and challenge the intermediate support levels. The impulsive move down from 1,340 is a great sign for bears and a confirmation of our view that the upward corrective wave from 1,180 has finished at 1,348.

The longer term upward sloping trend channel was broken. This is a negative sign for bulls and the bullish alternative. The sideways move that was forming a triangle was broken downwards. The next important level to watch out is 1,260 that will cancel the bullish alternative wave scenario. This scenario has diminished chances, but as long as prices trade above 1,260 and there is no overlap, there will be still some small chances. Nevertheless, we have the bearish scenario as our primary choice as mentioned for so long. Our stop for our bearish position is 1,330 now and for short-term traders this stop could be lowered to 1,313.

Concluding we remain bearish with lowered stops and we could add to short positions if support at 1,260 is broken. Long-term trend remains bearish and so do we. We target at a new low towards 1,150 at least.

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#USDX Analysis for August 2, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index managed yesterday to break above short-term resistance levels and make a daily candle close above the red candlestick we noted in yesterday's analysis. Prices managed to close above 82 and are now testing the next important resistance at 82.35.

It is a good sign that after all the expectations we see the upward break. The blue downward sloping trend line is broken. Prices bounced off the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and Wednesday's bearish red candle is taken back and prices made a higher high covering the entire length of the red candle. The MAs are crossing once agan signalling the trend change. Short-term trend has changed to up and this is now confirmed. What should be expected now is to test the intermediate-term trend and challenge it. Resistance is found at 82.35 and 83.45.

The short-term upward move looks impulsive and that is another positive sign for the trend reversal we were talking about. The rise has paused at the 82.35 resistance level. Any pullback should be bought with the lows as stop. Concluding we are bullish as we were expecting this trend reversal. The rise is impulsive and we are expecting to continue to rise. The pullbacks should be corrective and a pattern with higher highs and higher lows should start to form if a bullish momentum is to be built.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 2, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6842

R2: 1.6790

R1: 1.6738

Current Spot: 1.6719

S1: 1.6693

S2: 1.6671

S3: 1.6652

Technical summary:

We should be in the very early parts of red wave iii higher. Red wave iii is most likely to become an extended wave and should at least reach 1.7326, but could well extend much further, only time will tell. In the short term we are looking for support at 1.6693 to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 1.6738 and, more importantly, a break above resistance at 1.6790, which will confirm the next powerful rally higher towards 1.7045. However, if support at 1.6693 should be broken, the downside should be limited and only a break below 1.6600 will invalidate our bullish count.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6411 and will lift our stop to 1.6595. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6693 or upon a break above 1.6738 with a stop at 1.6595 too.

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EUR/USD - Key fractal 1.3230 - for August 01, 2013 (daily strategy) Trend News

The euro in the Asian session was trading at this level of 1.3276. The Fed said yesterday that persistently low inflation could hamper the economic expansion and pledged to keep buying $85 billion in bonds every month. This data originated that the euro has a strong bullish momentum towards 1.3336 area. On the other hand, we observe the Momentum Indicator that has a small space to touch the area of the moving average of the MACD. If it is likely, it supports a bounce that would reflect that the euro could bounce off the 1.3325 area, and if the Momentum Indicator MACD sharply falls it could be a good sell signal, which confirmed the closure would remain in daily graphs below the fractal of 1.3230. So we leave the following recommendation drawn on the graph.

If you need personal consultation, Skype: gerardofx or contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY H1 and H4 analysys for 01/08/2013 Trend News

General overview for 01/08/2013 11:30 CET:

Long time anticipated Bull Flag technical pattern target projection at 132.45 has been hit and price is now in reverse mode as there are some indications that a corrective wave (b) cycle might has been finished: price broken out below red channel trend line in five impulsive waves and now it is trying to test the channel line from the downside. Price is expected to fail here and continue lower in impulsive wave development and the first clue will be a break of longer time frame golden trend line.

Judging by the wave structure on H1 time frame it looks like the overall corrective cycle might get more complex here so please consider more whipsaws while trading the correction. Price is now on Weekly Pivot level area and Intraday Resistance zone @ 130.75 - 130.98 that had capped the rally. However, there is a possibility of a slight further advance to the 61% Fibo area if the Weekly Pivot level will get broken.

Support/Resistance:

132.72 - Swing High

131.90 - WR1

131.32 - 131.42 - 61%Fibo | SUPPLY ZONE |

130.98 - Weekly Pivot

130.75 - 130.98 - Intraday Resistance Zone

129.33 - Intraday Support level

129.23 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Selling the Weekly Pivot level at 131.98 with SL above 61% Fibo at 131.42 in anticipation of a new low to come produce a min. 5:1 R/R trade.

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#USDX Analysis for August 1, 2013 Trend News

The dollar index as we noted in yesterday's analysis was making an overlapping sideways move that was rejected at resistance. A new low was expected and finally delivered. Now the index is reversing higher breaking above the first short-term resistance level at 82. We need now to see a break above the high at 82.20 because from that high we see the new low.

Prices start to break out of the downward sloping trend channel and we think it is very possible to low is in. Prices seem that they are making a trend reversal as expected for so long as the downward move from 84.75 was looking more like a correction than an impulsive wave down. Short-term resistance is found at 82.20 and 82.35. Short-term support is found at 81.60.

The daily chart as shown above is giving us the first signals of a trend reversal. However today's candlestick will need to break above yesterday's red candlestick and manage to close above in order to have a confirmed break of the resistance. The low at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement is now important support that if broken, will push prices towards 81 and maybe 80.75.

Concluding we remain in our neutral to bullish stance. We expect 82.20 to be broken upwards together with the first short term resistance at 82.35. If prices pull back we could again enter long with yesterday's lows as stop. We believe the trend reversal is starting to take form.

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