Technical analysis of AUD/CHF for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The change in the momentum for the AUD/CHF pair has been detected; it should result in a corrective wave up. After the pair bounced from the downtrend trendline, the price broke above the key resistance R1 (0.7092).

While the bullish divergence has been formed on longer- and short-term scales, it indicates that sentiment is changing in bulls favor. At the same time, the price rejected the uptrend trendline that could be a signal that AUD/CHF is ready to move higher today or this week.

Consider buying AUD/CHF near R1 targeting either R2 (0.7209) or R3 (0.7272) resistance levels taken from the Fibonacci applied to the 07.05 low and 14.05 high. One move lower than S1 (0.7042) could either result in the consolidation or continuation of the downtrend.

Support: 0.7042

Resistance: 0.7272, 0.7209, 0.7272

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Global macro overview for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 21/07/2015:

After almost a month of Greek negotiations with creditors, the market is now going back to the fundamentals. The creditors made some important decisions towards the future of the eurozone and the euro currency during the hectic weeks of negotiations with Greek people. It looks like the worst scenario for Greece (Grexit) has been avoided for now, so the market participants again can focus on the economic data from the EU. The first important news release is today's German IFO business climate indicator for the month of July. The market expects the number to be quite high at the level of 107.4 with the current assessment data at the level of 113.1.

The most liquid currency in the world is trading just above the key support at the level of 1.0815 at the time of writing.

The scheduled news release is as follows (GMT):

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate 107.4

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment 113.1

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations 102.0

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USDX technical analysis for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US Dollar Index remained strong yesterday despite weakness in the early trading hours. The price is now breaking above the 98 resistance level increasing chances of success for the bullish scenario. The US Dollar Index could make a short-term pullback but othe verall trend remains bullish.

Black lines - upward sloping channel

The US Dollar Index is inside an upward sloping channel. Tenkan-sen (red line) support is held for now. If broken we could see a push towards the lower channel boundary and most probably towards the kijun-sen indicator (yellow line).

Blue line - horizontal resistance

The weekly chart remains bullish and now that the recent high at 98 is broken, the bullish scenario of new highs gains even more points. Tenkan- and kijun-sen are positively sloped, price is making higher highs and higher lows. I remain bullish.

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Gold technical analysis for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price bounced yesterday after a sharp decline towards $1,090. It managed to reach only the 38% retracement. The price has been sliding lower since then last night we saw gold prices going back below $1,100 once again. With $1,095 as a short-term low support, gold prices try to bounce again, but the trend remains bearish.

Blue line - trend line resistance

Gold prices remain below the blue trend-line resistance and the Ichimoku cloud. As long as the price is below $1,130-40 resistance we should be heading towards $1,030 or even $900. The price bounced right at the 38% retracement and got rejected. Short-term resistance is seen at $1,120. If it gets broken, we could see a bounce towards the 61.8% retracement of $1,135.

Blue line- long-term trend line support

Red lines - equal size decline projection

The blue trend-line support is broken. Unless we see a back test towards $1,135-40 soon, we should expect a decline in gold prices to be of similar size to the distance from the trend-line support to the January highs. So, gold is expected to move towards $1,000 or even lower in coming weeks.

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Technical analysis of AUD/CAD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The fall in commodity prices badly hurts the Australian economy. After the commodities super cycle, iron prices have been falling very badly. The recent gold prices added some more pressure to the AUD.

Goldman Sachs expects iron ore prices to continue to fall until the second quarter of 2016.

The nuclear deal makes oil prices move lower. Lower oil prices directly effects the Canadian economy.

At yesterday's session, data on the Canadian whole sales came out on the down side. Wholesale sales decreased by 1.0% to $54.5 billion in May, following two consecutive periods of increases.

Technical view: The cross has been trading on a bearish bias. The cross re-test 0.9400 three times in 15 months, but successfully managed to close above that. The 20Dsma is found at 0.9515, 50Dsma is found at 0.9515 and 20Wsma is seen at 0.9570. Traders can keep an eye on this cross, big moves are likely to take place in coming days. A weekly close below 0.9400 opens gayes to a big fall. In the weekly charts, we can observe a big head and shoulder pattern. The cross has been testing the neck line.

In the daily chart, the cross formed a double top at 0.9587 and 0.9617 again. The intraweek pattern shifts to mild-buying with sl 0.9500. We recommend fresh selling below 0.9500 towards 0.9420 and 0.9400.

Intraday support is found at 0.9550, 0.9520 and 0.9510. Resistance is seen at 0.9575, 0.9587, and 0.9617. Small buying is available above 0.9600 with targets at 0.9615, 0.9630, and 0.9660.

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Forecast of AUD/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

RBA meeting minutes were released at today's Asian session. The Board decided to leave the rate unchanged at 2.0%.

Members noted that global economic conditions remained consistent with growth in Australia's major trading partners being around average over the period ahead.

Domestically, the key forces shaping the economy over the past year were much as they had been for some time. Very low interest rates supported strong growth in dwelling investment and, together with strong housing prices, underpinned consumption growth.

Recent data indicated that employment had grown more rapidly than the population and the unemployment rate had been relatively stable since the latter part of the previous year.

Commodity prices fell further and the Australian dollar was depreciated over the past month. Although the exchange rate against the US dollar was close to levels last seen in 2009, the decline in the Australian dollar had been more modest in terms of a basket of currencies.

AUD/USD

The aussie bounce froma 6-year low ahead of the RBA minutes. After the minutes, the aussie volatility was arrested at the Asian session. US dollar bulls are unlikely to lose their grip. Traders eye Q2 inflation readings and RBA governor Stevens's speech scheduled for tomorrow.

The cross found support at 0.7268 and 0.7233. The cross is trading at 0.7369 at the Asian session. In the daily chart, the recent price movement brought 0.7349 as the key level to watch on a daily closing basis. The real selling ignites below 0.7230 for another 200 pips fall. The fall in commodity prices badly hurts the Australian economy. After the commodities super cycle, iron prices have been falling very badly. The recent gold prices added some more pressure to the AUD.

For an intraweek period, the cross favors selling on a rise. In an extreme case, the cross can climb towards 0.7460, but it is unlikely to happen. Use rises to sell with sl 0.7500. The intraday support is found at 0.7330 and 0.7300. Fresh selling is available below 0.7300 with targets at 0.7270, 0.7250, and 0.7230. A low around 0.7300 is likely to be reached today.

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Global macro overview for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 21/07/2015:

Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia released minutes from its monetary policy meeting. The Australian central bank admitted the currency is overvalued on current market levels, however it looks like the bank wants to keep it this way and further cuts are not on the table right now. The biggest impact on the Australian economy came from a falling mining investment, unemployment at 6% and subdued wages. The current interest rates are at 2%, so there is still a room for a further cuts.

The AUD/USD technical picture reveals no big surprises as the AUD is slowly but surely falling to test the key support at the level of 0.7266.

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