Global macro overview for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 21/07/2015:

Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia released minutes from its monetary policy meeting. The Australian central bank admitted the currency is overvalued on current market levels, however it looks like the bank wants to keep it this way and further cuts are not on the table right now. The biggest impact on the Australian economy came from a falling mining investment, unemployment at 6% and subdued wages. The current interest rates are at 2%, so there is still a room for a further cuts.

The AUD/USD technical picture reveals no big surprises as the AUD is slowly but surely falling to test the key support at the level of 0.7266.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 21/07/2015 09:00 CET

As mentioned yesterday, the sideways corrective cycle will continue for some time now in wave 2 black or wave alt: iv green. Nevertheless, it is still a correction that has tested the golden trendline from the downside and got rejected right on the level of 1.3022. Please notice the market is trading in a tight range, but a breakout to the upside is expected to complete the impulsive wave progression. The first weekly technical target for both counts is seen at the level of 1.3072. Only a sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2804 would invalidate the bullish scenario.

Support/Resistance:

1.3072 - WR3

1.3022 - WR2

1.3006 - WR1

1.2955 - Weekly Pivot

1.2947 - Intraday Support

1.2932 - WS1

1.2890 - WS2

1.2862 - WS3

1.2804 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Buying on dips is the way to trade on this market and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 1.2947 is clearly violated ( hourly candle close below this level).

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 21/07/2015 08:50 CET

Sideways consolidation continues fter a successful intraday test of the intraday support at 134.36. The market is range bounded between the levels of 135.04 and 134.36. A breakout to the upside is being expected, but any breakout below the intraday support at the level of 134.36 would extend a downfall towards the wave A blue support at the level of 133.28.

Support/Resistance:

135.77 - WR3

136.17 - WR2

135.34 - WR1

135.04 - Weekly Pivot

134.74 - Intraday Resistance

134.36 - Intraday Support

134.23 - WS1

133.89 - WS2

133.28 - Swing Low

133.09 - WS3

Trading recommendations:

Due to the sideways price action, trading advise is still valid: buying on dips is a way to trade on this market and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 134.36 is clearly violated ( hourly candle close below this level).

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: Bears have not shown any signs of relenting this week, although there was no significant movement on Monday. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern is intact in the market, and the support line at 1.0800 could be violated. In case the support line is successfully breached, the next target would be the support line at 1.0750.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair still epresses willingness to go further north by moving upward by 40 pips on Monday. This is a slight continuation of the current dominant bullish bias, and the resistance level at 0.9650 is under siege now. In case the resistance level gets breached to the upside, the next target would be the resistance level at 0.9700.

GBP/USD: Irrespective of recent consolidation, there is still a clean bullish bias on the cable. For the bullish bias to continue being valid, the distribution territory at 1.5650 must be breached to the upside: otherwise there could be a risk of a strong bearish correction this week.

USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has been trending strongly for the most part of this month. The price has closed above the demand level at 124.00, going towards the supply level at 124.50. Should that supply level be broken to the upside, the next target would be another supply level of 125.00.

EUR/JPY: The fate of the EUR/JPY pair would continue to be determined by whatever happens to the euro. The euro is currently weak - hence the bearish outlook on the cross. The bearish outlook can only be reversed in case the euro becomes significantly strong.

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Forecast of Gold for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The metal lost 4% at yesterday's session closing below the level of 1100.00.

About 3.3 million physical contracts for the metal were traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. In the South Africa, the mining sector waged negotiations resumed on Monday.

The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust holdings, faced a decline in output of 0.26% to 694.46 tons compared to the previous day.

China official Gold reserves hit the level of 1658 tons at the end of the previous month. This was the first reported increase in 6 years.

Indian government curbs gold imports. India is the second largest customer of the precious metal after China. The rural economy has been struggling for a while in India. This factor influences gold sales along with two-wheeler, tractor, and FMCG sales.

The nuclear agreement with Iran depresses commodities like gold and crude.

Barclays says if the price of gold falls below $ 1,100.00, gold production will be vulnerable.

Technical forecast: In the weekly chart, the metal manage to hold the channel support trend line finds at $1,085.00.

The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below a large bearish head & shoulders pattern. In all time frames, the precious metal lost all moving averages.

At yesterday's session, we advised to refrain from fresh selling. Selling accelerates only below $1,085.00. Selling on a rise is likely to be profitable.

Intraday support is found at $1,094.00 and $1,085.00. Resistance is seen at $1,108.00, $1,120.00, and $1,134.00. The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,068.00, and $1,060.00. The metal is likely to test $1,068.00 initially and $1,045.00 and $1,005.00 later. The level of $9,65.00 is likely to be hit in the next 6 months in the extreme case. The strong supply zone is seen at $1,134.00, $1,142.00, and $1,163.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,063 and $1,045.00 in the near term.

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Forecast of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

At yesterday's session, the cable rejected at 20Dsma again, falling below 50Dsma, but managing to close above that level. It was the 4th consecutive day in a row.

The near-term picture turns bearish, as the cable is likely to re-test 1.5500. It has been moving towards higher lows and higher highs in the daily chart.

Earlier in July, the cable broke the 20Dsma, but was unable to close above it. In the near term, it seems to be capped at 1.5700. A strong close above 1.5600 20Dsma is likely to enable bulls to come back on track, aiming to breach the 1.5700 mark. In this case, gates to 1.5800 will be open.

The cable broke the 3-month ascending trendline and failed to close above that. These are few factors supporting the near-term bearish view towards 1.5500.

The 50Wsma is found at 1.5600 and the 20Wsma 1.5270.

Recently, the S&P lowered the British 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.6 % (previously expected growth of 2.8%), but improves the forecast for GDP in the eurozone.

Bulls: The cable gave a break from the bullish broadening wedge closing above that. The trend favors buying on dips with sl 1.5450. The 50Dsma is found at 1. 5560 and 100Dems is found at 1.5440.

Intraday support is found at 1.5540 and resistance is seen at 1.5575, 1.5600, and 1.5610. At yesterday's session, the cable hit a low at 1.5538. The intraday key zone to watch is located between 1.5510 and 1.5500, selling will accelerate below these levels towards 1.5450 during a day.

We can observe a bearish h&s pattern in the H1 chart. The cable has been managing to hold the neck line, but it is unlikely to go further to 1.5450. Safe selling is available below 1.5520 with targets at 1.5500, 1.5485, 1.5450, and 1.5435.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Given lack of macroeconomic data, today is understandably a quiet day on the euro and USD markets. Things should pick up rapidly on Friday, however as we don't have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward.

The pair closed below 20Wsma. The pair reached a large distribution territory between 1.1467 and 1.1437. In the daily chart, the pair lost all moving averages. The nearest support is found at 1.0785. We advised selling on rises with a target at 1.0720. The 20Wsma is seen at 1.1080. In different time intervals (hourly and daily charts), the oscillators indicate oversold levels.

The pair has been reaching lower lows and lower highs, falling below the lower end of the ascending trendline. We recommend fresh selling only below 1.0780 with an initial target at 1.0720 and extending towards 1.0630 later.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0840, 1.0870, and 1.0910. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0750, and 1.0720.

Weekly resistance is seen at 1.0920, 1.0960, and 1.0980. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0720, and 1.0650.

Monthly support is found at 1.0730.

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