Best and Easy Analyst News

Tuesday, 31 March 2015

#USDX technical analysis for March 31, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index continues to show signs of strength. The reversal from 96 is likely to be a confirmed trend change and resumption of the uptrend towards new highs above 101. The longer-term trend remains bullish as the weekly chart is confirmed and held above support.

The Dollar index reversed from the 61.8% retracement purple area. Now, it is trying to break above resistance of the red ichimoku cloud at 98-98.20. Breaking above this area will be a medium-term buy signal that will increase the chances of the bullish scenario. Support is found at 97. Breaking below 97 and a rejection at 98 is not something a bull would like to see.

The weekly chart remains fully bullish with the price holding above the tenkan-sen and the Chikou span taking a positive slope. Bulls need to be cautious as the kijun-sen and tenkan-sen are flat. This week's candle is gpoing to be be important to see if we have a follow through the last week's reversal candle. I remain bullish as long as a weekly close is above the tenkan-sen.

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Gold technical analysis for March 31, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price continued its downward move towards short-term support at $1,180-75 as expected. Now, it is testing the short-term support levels and bulls need to step in if they want to push the price back above $1,200. The longer-term trend remains bearish and the weekly chart makes me favor the bearish scenario towards $1,130 and lower.

Short-term support is seen at $1,172 at the 61.8% retracement. This is also a lower boundary of the green Ichimoku cloud. As long as gold price is above that level, bulls have hope for an upward reversal.

Last week's high is important resistance as the price got rejected at the kijun-sen. We have a bearish crossing between the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen. If resistance at $1,220 is broken, we should expect gold price to move towards red cloud resistance at $1,250. Important long-term support is at $1,130. In case it gets broken, a medium-term move towards $1,000 and $900 can be expected.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 31, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has nearly forfeited all the bullish gains it got last week. The current near-term weakness in the market has put the extant bullish bias in jeopardy. There is a good possibility that things will go completely bearish if the price goes below the support lines at 1.0750 and 1.0700.

USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument continues to make its efforts to go upwards with some visible results. A movement above the resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850 would mean the end of the current bearish bias and the beginning of a good bullish bias.

GBP/USD: The cable moved only sideways throughout last week, but the price started consolidating to the downside trying the accumulation territory at 1.4800. Currently, a long trade does not look as the best thing for this market, unless the price reaches the distribution territory around 1.5050, which seems a far cry now.

USD/JPY: The bullish effort is paying off. The price has gone above the demand level at 120.00. Now, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The next targets for bulls are located at the supply levels at 120.50 and 121.00. Those are the target for this week, because the bullish expectations are strong.

EUR/JPY: We would recommend to stay away from this cross until there is a vivid trending movement. The current situation on the market is a kind of dicey and one would need to wait to see where the coming momentum will take the price. Nevertheless, a movement to the upside is very likely.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 31 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The expected upward rally is still on track. We are gathering strength to accelerate higher towards 1.4595 and much higher in the long term. In the short term, we expect minor support at 1.4389 to be able to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 1.4495 calling for acceleration to 1.4595 and above. A break below 1.4389 is likely to delay the expected upside pressure, but the potential downside should be limited to support at 1.4362.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.4335 and are going to keep our stop at 1.4275 for now. If you are not long EUR yet, buy closer to 1.4389 or upon a break above 1.4457 with the same stop at 1.4275.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 31 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

As long as minor resistance at 131.51 protects the upside, we will be looking for more downside pressure. A break below support at 128.99 and more importantly a break below support at 128.33 will call for one final decline closer to 125.98 before the impulsive decline from 149.55 finally is over and a new impulsive rally can be expected. Only an unexpected break above 131.51 will indicate that wave C of the expanded flat correction, which we have been tracking since late December 2013 terminated at 126.87 and a new impulsive rally is already developing.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 129.85 with stop placed at 130.40. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell upon a break below 129.67 with the same stop.

Technical analysis and trading recommendation for Gold for March 31, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Yellow metal slipped from 2-week highs and is trading below $1,200.00 mark after the Yellen's testimony. Chair Janet Yellen said she expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. That subsequent increase will be gradual without following a predictable path. "I expect that conditions may warrant an increase in the federal funds rate target sometime this year,” she said.

After the initial increase, officials won't follow “any predetermined course of tightening" that involves similar-sized increases at regular intervals, Yellen said on a research conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California March 27, 2015. Pending home sales in February increased to their highest level since June 2013 as sizeable gains in the Midwest and West were offset by smaller declines in the Northeast and South, according to the National Association of Realtors. These factors helped USD to rebound.

The metal price rejected at 20Wsma. Parallel support was found at $1,179.00. We recommend selling below $1,179.00 with targets at $1,176.00, $1,170.00, $1,167.00, and $1,164.00. Intraday resistance is seen at $1,191.00 and weekly resistance is seen at $1,197.00.Until the metal closes below $1,197.00 bears have the upper hand. The 20Dsma is found at $1,176.50. It is likely to lead to bears' grip in case the price closes below this level. In the hourly chart, lower lows and lower highs formation is expanding. Today, traders eye on consumer confidence index. In case of negative reading, the metal will extend its fall towards $1,176.50 and $1,168.00. It can bounce towards $1,194.00.

Trade:Selling below $1,179.00

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Monday, 30 March 2015

Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for March 31, 2015 Market Analysis Review

German CPI: the inflation rate in Germany is expected to be 0.3% in March 2015. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.5% on February 2015.

Spanish flash CPI: according to the flash estimate published by the INE, the annual inflation is 0.7% in March 2015. This indicator provides a preview of the CPI that would imply an increase of four-tenths in its annual rate. In February it changed by 1%. This increase is mainly explained by the increase in fuel prices (gas and diesel oil).

Upcoming events: Macro calendar offered a data-heavy day in the eurozone and European countries. Today, traders eye on German retail sales, unemployment change, French consumer spending, Italian unemployment change, CPI flash estimates, core CPI flash estimates, and unemployment rate. It's a big data for the euro. We are expecting another positive data from German and French.

Technical view: The US data dominated at yesterday's session. USD rebounds from the lower levels, pressured on its peers. The euro fell against USD at yesterday's session but managed to hold at 20Dsma. Parallel support is found at 1.0800 below this, 1.0768 will be crucial. In case the price closes below 1.0768, we can expect 150 more pips on the down side. The selling pressure is likely to be applied below 1.0800 and strong selling pressure will attack below 1.0768 with targets at 1.0700, 1.0650, and 1.0620. In the hourly chart, we can observe lower lows and lower highs formation. We have been advising the near term trend was going to be capped. Intraday resistance exists at 1.0860 and weekly resistance is seen at 1.0950. We recommend fresh selling below 1.0800. Intraday support is found at 1.0820 and 1.0800, last hope is at 1.0768. In case US consumer confidence does not meet the expectations, then we can see some bump up in the price. We recommend buying above 1.0860 with targets at 1.0900 and 1.0950.

Trade: selling below 1.0800, panic below 1.0760.

Buying above 1.0860, strong upswing likely above 1.0950

Key technical levels of the euro against USD/JPY/CAD/GBP, and AUD :

EUR/USD-Weekly mode favors SELLING with sl 1.0950

EUR/JPY- Weekly mode favors turned to selling with sl 130.50

EUR/CAD- Weekly mode favors turned to buying with sl 1.3680

EUR/GBP. Weekly mode still favors buying, but struggling at 50Dsma

EUR/AUD. buying with sl 1.3940 with target at 1.4150, initiated at 1.3850.Target completed high made 1.4186. Use another dip to buy at 1.4080

We will re-analyze if the weekly trend changes.