Wednesday, 4 March 2015

#USDX technical analysis for March 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend after a triangle break out. It is only a matter of time before the index will make new highs and accelerate upwards. A long-term target is at 100-101.


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Red lines= triangle


The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows. Support is at 94.80 and resistance is at 95.55. I believe we are going to see new highs soon, and the upward move will expand towards 97 for the short term.


usdxd.jpgThe Dollar index is now testing the 50% retracement on the monthly chart as shown above. I believe, we will break above 96 and eventually reach the 61.8% retracement at 100-101 over the coming weeks. I remain bullish.


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Gold technical analysis for March 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The gold price continues to trade above the support at $1,200. However, there is no clear sign of strength that could push the price above $1,225. A short-term trend is neutral. As long as the price is above $1,190-$1,200, bulls have hope for a bigger bounce towards $1,250.


goldh4.jpg

Black line = trend line resistance


Now, the Ichimoku cloud is back above the Gold price again. Gold has not managed to reach the 38% retracement of the decline, but I still believe that it may hit that level. The short-term support is at $1,200 and the short-term resistance is at $1,213.


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The weekly chart is not good for bulls as the rejection at the kijun-sen (yellow line) is a bearish sign. Support is found at $1,190. If broken bears are in control, we could see a sharp move downwards towards $1,130.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

gbpusdh1.png

Overview :



  • The market of the GBP/USD pair showed the signs of instability. The trend movement was debatable as it took place in the narrow sideways channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.5328 and 1.5440, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait until the sideways channel is passed through. Then the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy deals are recommended above 1.5330 with their first target at the level of 1.5390. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.5412 and further to the level of 1.5440 (it will act as a strong resistance for this week because it is representing the weekly pivot point). However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.5440, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.5440. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the level of 1.5440 with the first target at 1.5387. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.5328 then 1.5328 in order to test the double bottom and the support 1 on the H1 chart. It should be noted that the weekly resistance 1 is at the level of 1.5328 and the double bottom is already placed at the point of 1.5332.



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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

eurusdh1.png

Overview :



  • The double bottom of EUR/USD is likely to set at the level of 1.1154 and supports are going to be set at the 1.1150/1.1160 levels. It should be noted that the last range was very small, around 55 pips only. Today, we expect the range of 80-110 pips. Moreover, the price has not hit support 1 nor the weekly pivot point this week. So, according to past events, the market is likely to move between the levels of 1.1150 and 1.1255; because the major support is going to be set at 1.1150; and the resistance had been already set at the level of 1.1255 (the weekly pivot point). Also, it should be noted that the price of 1.1255 represents the double top in the H1 chart. Therefore, it will be very useful to buy above the price of 1.1150 in the short term with the first target at 1.1197. Additionally, if the trend is able to break the first target at 1.1197, then it might resume towards the price of 1.1255.



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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: This pair is still bearish in outlook, not yet able to go upwards significantly, following the strong bearish run that happened at the end of the last week. As long as the pair is weak, USD/CHF (which normally gets negatively correlated to the EUR/USD pair) would not be able to go downwards. The price is currently between the support line at 1.1150 and the resistance line at 1.1200. The support line may be breached to the downside but the price may not be able to close below it, because the outlook on the EUR is upbeat.


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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair continues to go upwards in a determined manner. The bullish movement is slow and gradual, as the price forms a series of lower highs and higher highs in the chart. The price is now above the support level at 0.9600, and it may get to the resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700.


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GBP/USD: The outlook for the Cable this week is downbeat and it is not a surprise that the price is showing some signs of weakness. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. This shows a serious Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart: the price may trend lower from here.


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USD/JPY: In spite of the effort of bears, expectations remain bullish. While, it is possible that the price could touch the demand levels at 119.50 and 119.00, the supply levels at 120.00 and 125.00 can also be attained.


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EUR/JPY: Although, the current price action shows that this cross is weak, a bullish breakout is expected at any day this week. It may be today, tomorrow, or Friday, but eventually, there would be a rally in the market and the rally could go on for a few weeks. One reason behind this is the expected weakness of the JPY.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 04/03/2015 08:25 CET


The current wave progression does not really confirm the impassive wave development to the upside and the outlook for the intraday wave count is more and more in favor of more complex and time consuming corrective cycle in wave X brown. However, this point of view has not been yet confirmed by the market and an impassive breakout below the intraday support at the level of 133.43 is needed to draw that kind of conclusion. In that case, the next support is seen at the level of 132.77.


Support/Resistance:


132.77 - WS1


133.43 - Intraday Support


134.22 - Weekly Pivot


134.59 - Intraday Resistance


135.02 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


The buy orders should still be kept open, but please keep an eye on the level of 133.42 as any breakout below this level invalidates any possibility of a bullish wave progression.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 04/03/2015 08:15 CET


The alternative wave count had been invalidated after the level of 1.2474 violation and now the main count is the one to keep an eye on. The corrective cycle labeled as wave abc green had been completed. The first impulsive wave to the upside had been made and the market is in the corrective cycle now. The most important level is the intraday support at 1.2430 as any breakout lower would invalidate the current intraday impulsive count and make the corrective cycle more complex and time consuming. Please notice the bias is still bullish and break out higher is expected soon.


Support/Resistance:


1.2367 - WS1


1.2443 - Intraday Support|Key Level|


1.2515 - Weekly Pivot


1.2564 - Intraday Resistance


1.2600 - Dynamic Trend Line Resistance


Trading recommendations:


As advised yesterday: the buy orders should be still kept open (SL below the level of 1.2430 and TP open for now), as the market might be in the middle of the impulsive wave to the upside.


usdcad_h1.jpg

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