Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 140.37

R2: 139.88

R1: 139.42

Current spot: 139.32

S1: 138.75

S2: 138.12

S3: 137.36

Technical summary:

We have seen a minor five wave decline from 142.47 to end blue wave iii and we should look for a minor correction towards 139.88 before the next powerful decline towards 137.01 to end the red wave iii. It should be remembered that the correction during the third wave tends to be small or even sub-normal.

In the longer term we are still looking for a much bigger correction of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69, with the ideal corrective target coming in at 126.00.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 140.95 and keep your stop at 139.95. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell EUR near 139.88 with the same stop at 139.95.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 16, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD had hit the support line at 1.3650 before it rallied a little. The little rally has taken the price above the resistance line at 1.3700, but it should be halted at the resistance line at 1.3750. It is possible for the price to go downwards again and test the support line at 1.3650. When this happens, the support line might be breached to the downside as the price goes towards another support line at 0.3600.

USD/CHF: USD/CHF had topped the resistance level of 0.8950 before it pulled back. The pullback was halted at the support level of 0.8900. It is possible for the price to go upwards again and test the resistance level at 0.8950. When this happens, the resistance level might be breached to the upside as the price goes towards another resistance level at 0.9000.

GBP/USD: The downtrend on the Cable has been halted at the accumulation territory of 1.6750, but the ensuing upward bounce was also halted at the distribution territory of 1.6800. The price is expected to go further downwards in the context of a downtrend, testing the accumulation territory of 1.6750 again and probably breaking it downwards.

USD/JPY: This is a bear market, though the perceived strength in USD has prevented the pair from going down significantly like other JPY pairs. The price should go southwards more, thus breaking the stubborn demand level at 101.50 to the downside.

EUR/JPY: This crossed dropped seriously and tested the demand zone at 139.00. The price is still at the demand zone and could go further downwards. The indicators in the chart confirm the established southward bias.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair seems to have hit the fibonacci 0.618 support around the 139.00 levels as seen here. This fibonacci support is the retracement of rally between 136.00 to 144.00 levels as seen here. The pair can be expected to reverse and stage an impressive rally from here on. Recommendation is to remain long, risk remains around 138.50/60 levels.

2. Support is at 138.50, followed by 136.00, 134.00 and lower, while resistance is at 141.00, followed by 142.50, 143.50/144.00 and 145.50 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY could still recover from sub 139.00 levels and print fresh highs above 144.00 levels before reversal.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop at 138.50/60, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 16/05/2014 08:30 CET

This could have been little changed and the difference is in wave (iii) green bottom placement that currently is at the level of 1.0814. That means the current wave development looks like a triangle wave (iv) green with the first two waves already presented. . There are waves c, d and e green missing here, so we can expect a ranging market between the levels of 1.0925 and 1.0835 until this corrective cycle is completed .

Support/Resistance:

1.0814 - Wave (iii) green low

1.0835 - Technical Support

1.0850 - Intraday Support

1.0886 - Intraday Resistance

1.0898 - Weekly Pivot

1.0925 - Top of the supply zone

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy stop positions if the level of 1.0891 is clearly broken with SL below the level of 1.0850 and TP at the level of 1.0925. Please notice that trading inside of a possible triangle formation is full of false breakouts and whipsaws.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 16, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 16/05/2014 08:50 CET

The current count is still very bearish and lower prices should be expected, but the chances are rising for a short-term upside bounce as the bullish divergence is building on the momentum oscillator on H1 time frame. That means the key level here to keep an eye on is at the level of 139.38 - 139.45 zone because any breakout above this zone will be the first clue that the corrective cycle has started. Moreover, any breakout above next technical resistance at the level of 139.87 would invalidate the impulsive bearish count. Otherwise more downside is anticipated with the fist target at the level of 138.86 with a possible extension to the level of 138.15.

Support/Resistance:

139.87 - Technical Resistance

139.38 - 139.45 - Intraday Resistance |Key Level |

138.97- Intraday Low

138.86 - WS1

138.15 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should open buy stop positions if the level of 139.46 is broken with SL below the level of 139.08 and TP at the level of 139.87.

Swing traders should still keep the running short positions as lower prices are still expected with SL slightly above the level of 140.20.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May16, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair again tests 1.5000 levels before reversing sharply. The pair currently trades around the mid 1.4900's and it is expected to continue drifting lower towards 1.4700 levels as seen here. Bulls have managed to take out important resistance at 1.4950/60 recently and the pair could produce a meaningful retracement. Recommendations are to remain short, risk remains at 1.5040.

2. Support is at 1.4780, followed by 1.4630, 1.4550, 1.4450 and lower, while resistance is at 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure still remains constructive for bears to gain control till prices stay below 1.5040/50 levels. Rallies should fade around 1.5980 levels if reached.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at 1.5045, target is open.

Good luck!

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Forecast and technical analysis of USDX for May 16, 2014 Trend News

Today traders eye building permits. Yesterday's data was mixed. The core CPI rose to 0.3% in April, the unemployment benefits claims in the week ending May 10 advanced to seasonally adjusted 297,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level, the industrial production declined in April. Federal Chairwoman Yellen delivered a speech, she applauded small businesses for helping in the economic recovery. She didn't say much about the monetary policy.

The US dollar faced resistance at the weekly upper trend line, 38.2 correction fib level from 82.67-79 levels, and daily 200 EMA levels. The weekly oscillators favor long side. If the price breaks 80.45, then it will spike up to 80.80, 81, 82.5 and 84 levels. On the down side, the initial support exists at 79.78 (this week's low) and 23.6 correction fib level and daily 50SMA level. We expect the price will come back to take the support and it will try to break the resistance level.

Weekly key level-

Support- 79.78

Resistance- 80.45

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