EUR/NZD analysis for March 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, the price tested the level of 1.6128 on ultra high volume (selling climax). Be careful with selling since we've got selling on very high volume. We can observe testing the level of 1.6130 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%). The EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish phase. To confrim potential bullish phase, we need to see strong demand on high volume on the market. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.6130 on high volume, we may see testing the level of 1.6020 (Fibonacci expansion 100%) before any larger upward movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6300

R2: 1.6332

R3: 1.6382

Support levels:

S1: 1.6199

S2 : 1.6167

S3: 1.6116

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair since we got selling climax.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the Kiwi demand on NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion and weaker dollar sentiment, reduced concerns over China and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the caution before Wednesday's Federal Reserve monetary policy decision and Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart is positive biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday, MACD is bullish , stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, the five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8650 and the second target at 0.8675. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8490. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8430. The pivot point is at 0.8515.

Resistance levels:

0.8650

0.8675

0.87

Support levels:
0.8490

0.8430

0.84

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for March 18, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last couple of days, the USD/CAD pair has been trading downwards, corrective wave (ii) (coloured green) of the bigger wave [c] (coloured black) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart above, we can see that price is doing a Zig-Zag correction from the 1.1153 level high, if this is a correct count, we should see one more push lower towards the 1.1029 level - 61.8% retracements of the (i) wave, before we see higher movements again in the (iii) wave. Our focus for this week is going to be on the upside, but remember that price needs to stay above the 1.0955 level all the time, so we can use it as our stop loss level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 1.1348 (161.8% of wave (i)).



Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.1025, (S2) 1.1044, (S1) 1.1071, (PP) 1.1090, (R1) 1.1117, (R2) 1.1136, (R3) 1.1163.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.1029 with stop loss at 1.0955 and take profit at 1.1348 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for March 18, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair has extended the upward movement during the first trading day of this week, let's see how this new movements wil fit the current wave count. In the 1-hour chart of the AUD/USD pair above, we can see that we are currently correcting the short-term cycle from the 0.8995 level, wave ii that is developing from 0.9109 should find support around the 0.9050 - 0.9038 area, and from there we are going to see new upside movements. Our strategy stay uncharged, we are going to buy after every pullback in the (iii) wave, while price remain above the 0.8994 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 0.9236 (161.8% of wave (i)). Swing traders can also try the same position, but for potential profit targets we are going to use the 0.9300 - 0.9400 region.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.8948, (S2) 0.8972, (S1) 0.9001, (PP) 0.9025, (R1) 0.9054, (R2) 0.9078, (R3) 0.9107.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9050 with stop loss at 0.8995 and take profit at 0.9236 are recommended.

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#USDX Technical analysis for March 18, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index remains in downtrend. The index continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Short-term support remains at 79.15-20. Short-term resistance is found at 79.50-60. Breaking short-term resistance could push the index towards the next resistance at 79.90. Breaking support could push the index towards 79 which was our bearish flag target from 80.20 for some time now if you follow our posts.

The Ichimoku cloud confirms that short-term trend is down. The contracting downward sloping channel is also confirming downtrend. However we witness a decrease in volatility and a decrease in the price swings. It may be time that a short-term bottom is being formed. However it is too early to say anything as we have no buy signals even in the short-term.

Our longer term view remains the same. Trend is down and the index continues to make lower lows and lower highs. However we should note that 79 is an important support level. We are now trading at 79.40 and if you feel a reversal is coming, being long with 79 as stop is a good strategy. If a trader want to play it more safe, can wait and enter a long position if resistance at 79.60 breaks with 79.20 stop. If a bounce is to be made, 80 is the first target and then 80.50. The longer-term trend will change if 81.30 is broken upwards.

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Gold technical analysis for March 18, 2014 Trend News

Yesterday, we mentioned a short-term sell signal that would be given if Gold price falls below $1,378. Our first target was $1,368 and our second target was the 50% retracement at $1,360. All our targets were achieved. Short-term trend remains down. Short-term upward sloping trend line was broken. We are now in a corrective phase.

Important support as shown in the chart above is found at $1,350-45. This is where the Ichimoku cloud and the blue longer-term trend line support is found. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1,352 is also very possible to be reached. Gold price has short-term resistance the $1,370 level and needs to break above it in order to re-test $1,380.

Daily trend remains bullish but we witness a short-term trend reversal at $1,390. Important support is found at $1,330-50. Breaking below this important support could open the road for a move towards $1,300-$1,270. The longer-term trend remains up. The long-term support is at $1,250. This support is important to hold for our double bottom target of $1,500-$1,600 to have chances.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 18, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 18/03/2014 08:50 CET

The market is currently trading in the range zone and yesterday's bar was an inside candle. From Elliott Wave perspective, there are two possible wave scenarios here: main and alternate. The main scenario assumes the completion of the regular flat correction at the level of 1.1108 (1.1128 max) and impulsive downtrend resumption. The alternate scenario assumes more immediate downside wave progression as soon as the level of 1.1042 is violated. Only new high above the level of 1.1157 would invalidate both scenarios.

Support/Resistance:

1.1120 - 1.1128 - Key Level

1.1101 - 1.1108 - Target for wave c

1.1096 - Weekly Pivot

1.1081 - Intraday Resistance

1.1042 - Intraday Support

1.1040 - WS1

1.1005 - Techncial Support

Trading recommendations:

Sell limit orders should be opened from the level of 1.1108 with SL above the level of 1.1128 and TP at the level 1.1042 and 1.1005 with a possible downside extension.

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