GOLD Wave Analysis for October 19, 2012 Trend News

GOLD Elliott Wave

Since our last analysis gold was trading in a downward move like we expected, final 5 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (C) (coloured green) is developing. During the yesterday’s Asian and European sessions we could observe strong descending movement from 1751.37 towards the 1737.38 level. Therefore, during the early New York session gold did not manage to hold this level and price retraced back to 1745.50 level. Today this commodity continued trading in a bearish mood and we are expecting to see price at 1713.34 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 4, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 4 with Take Profit at 1728.57 (100% of wave 4) and Take Profit 2 at 1713.34 (161.8% of wave 4). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1739.36 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor U.S. Existing Home Sales data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 1722.3 (S2) 1730.6 (S1) 1736.7 (PP) 1745.0 (R1) 1751.1 (R2) 1759.4 (R3) 1765.5

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1733.70 with Stop Loss 1739.36, Take Profit at 1728.57, and Take Profit 2 at 1713.34 are recommended.

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USD/CAD Wave Analysis for October 19, 2012 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave

Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading in aт upward move like we expected, corrective wave (2) (coloured green) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured orange) is developing. During the Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 0.9763 towards the 0.9804 level. Therefore, during the New York session the USD/CAD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price reached a new daily high at 0.9858 level. At the moment this major pair is trading around 0.9855 level and we are expecting to see price lower when development of the (3) wave (coloured green) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with Take Profit at 0.9745 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 0.9674 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9879 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor CAD Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and U.S. Existing Home Sales data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9730 (S2) 0.9766 (S1) 0.9789 (PP) 0.9825 (R1) 0.9861 (R2) 0.9884 (R3) 0.9920

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9845 with Stop Loss 0.9879, Take Profit 1 at 0.9745, and Take Profit 2 at 0.9674 are recommended.

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EURUSD Bullish Outlook - For October 18, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The EUR/USD pair stopped yesterday after the rally to 1.3138 strong weekly resistance because around that area it will continue to offer resistance, as you may see on the chart. It is likely to reverse to the level of 1.3010 fractal.

At a fundamental level, if Span finally asks for a bailout, the euro will trigger. Therefore, it is only recommended to buy this pair at the support level or if it is seen a pullback. If you have sales positions we recommend great caution as a new rally to 1.3250 is likely.

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Fundamental Analysis For October 18, 2012 Trend News

A marked optimism about the summit meeting of European leaders which is held on Thursday and Friday in Brussels is giving bullish strength relative to the euro and to a lesser extent the British pound and the Swiss franc.

The single currency failed to break 1.31during the Wednesday's session, while the pound was around 1.62 during early American trading session.

The Australian dollar retook power in the last hours after China announced strong growth in its GDP. The Aussie is very dependent on China’s current situation. This country is the main destination for Australian exports.

As for the yen, it is bearish technically (bullish on charts) against the dollar. There is still the possibility of intervention by the Bank of Japan, which has not yet successful in finding the right action to prevent further strengthening of the yen against the dollar.

Of course, the general weakness of the U.S. currency concealed a stronger yen each day.

During Thursday's session, retail sales will be released in the UK at 4:30 Eastern.

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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for October 18, 2012 Trend News

After the USD/CAD pair broke below 0.9845 the market went to the downside. It reached the price level of 0.9635 testing the lower limit of the depicted bearish long-term channel which expressed a considerable bullish strength.

The USD/CAD bullish movement managed to break above the upper limit of the depicted long-term channel (0.9725) which was considered to be a bullish signal in the long term with a possible bullish 123 reversal pattern appearing on the DAILY chart targeting 0.9980.

Intraday Price Action towards 0.9730 (61.8% Fibonacci) should be watched for a valid Intraday BUY entry.

Price zone 0.9820 - 0.9850 is an intraday resistance zone. In order to resume the targets for the bullish patterns targeting around 0.9980 there should be a break above the intraday resistance zone.

Fixation below price level of 0.9650 breaking the established bottom around 0.9740 invalidates the bullish scenario for the current situation.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for October 18, 2012 Trend News

The GBP/USD pair reacted strongly towards 1.6300 - 1.6350 zone confirming the bearish retracement scenario expected in the previous weeks.

GBP/USD expressed daily closure below the lower limit of the depicted bullish channel which extended the bearish movement towards 1.5970 which has been providing considerable support for the pair.

The lower limit of the depicted 4H channel provided considerable support pushing the GBP/USD pair to the upper limit of the bearish 4H channel around 1.6125 which has been broken during yesterday's consolidations.

The lower limit of the broken DAILY channel was retested around price zone 1.6160 - 1.6180 yesterday. It triggered a suggested SELL entry with SL located above 1.6215.

The GBP/USD pair needs to be reclosed inside the depicted 4H channel (below 1.6095) in order to resume the expected bearish scenario on the DAILY chart.

Support: 1.6125, 1.6070, 1.6020, and 1.5970.

Resistance: 1.6175, 1.6260, and 1.6315.

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NZD/USD Candelstick Analysis for October, 18 Trend News

Daily



The NZD/USD rate closed with bullish candlestick pattern on Wednesday. At the same time the quotes consolidation under the correctional level of Fibonacci 76.4% - 0.8230 gives us the reason to consider the rate continues its descending movement towards the correctional level of 61.8% - 0.5081. The candlestick formations Counterattack lines and Engulfing Pattern on these sections, while many candlesticks open and close approximately at the same levels, do not influence the market. Giving the consolidation of quotes under the level of correction 61.8% we may expect the rate continues its down move towards the level of correction 50.0% - 0.7963. Consolidation of the quotes above the Fibonacci level 74.6% of Fibonacci gives the pair possibility to resume ascending move towards the correctional level of 100.0% 0 0.8471.

4h



On the 4H Chart the NZD/USD rate has fixed above the correctional level of Fibonacci 38.2% - 0.8187 after the bullish engulfing pattern was built. However, the pair paused and the next 4 candlesticks opened and closed at the same level. The consolidation above the level 38.2% Fibonacci makes a rate growth towards the correctional level 23.6% - 0.8251 of Fibonacci possible. The building of bearish candlestick formation may enable the pair to make a swing in favour of USD and fall towards the correctional level of 38.2%. We may observe the rebound from the correctional level 23.6% of Fibonacci and a swing in favour of USD could be seen.

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