Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a six-year high at 109.75 on Monday. USD/JPY is undermined by the unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 7.61% to 15.98, S&P 500 slipped 0.25% overnight to close at 1,977.8) as pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong added to concerns over global economic outlook, while caution prevail ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision Thursday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data Friday. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.479% versus% 2.535 late Friday), surprise 1.0% on-month drop in U.S. pending home sales index to 104.7 in August (versus forecast for no change); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY is downside limited by ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japan importers and positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 85.798 Monday, last at 85.601) on relative out performance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies and stronger-than-expected rise in Dallas Fed Business Activity Index to 10.8 in September from 7.1 in August (versus forecast 9.0), as-expected 0.5% on-month increase in U.S. August consumer spending and 0.3% rise in personal income.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 110. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 110.30. The pivot point stands at 109.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.05 and the second target at 108.80.
Resistance levels:
110
110.30
110.45
Support levels:
109.05
108.80
108.50
Fundamental Overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a 14-month high 0.9532 on Monday. It is supported by the positive USD sentiment, contagion from weak EUR on CHF and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. USD/CHF is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.479% versus% 2.535 late Friday), surprise 1.0% on-month drop in U.S. pending home sales index to 104.7 in August (versus forecast for no change), positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 85.798 Monday, last at 85.601) on relative outperformance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies; stronger-than-expected rise in Dallas Fed Business Activity Index to 10.8 in September from 7.1 in August (versus forecast 9.0); as-expected 0.5% on-month increase in U.S. August consumer spending and 0.3% rise in personal income.
Technical Comments:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone; five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9620 and the second target at 0.9650. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9485. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9455. The pivot point is at 0.9530.
Resistance levels:
0.9620
0.9650
0.9685
Support levels:
0.9485
0.9455
0.9415
Fundamental Overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a 13-month low 0.7707 on Monday. Kiwi is hurt after Reserve Bank of New Zealand revealed it has sold a net NZ$521 million in August versus just NZ$2 million in July, suggesting that the central bank had intervened to weaken the currency and Prime Minister John Key was reported as signaling that US$0.6500 would be a fair value for the Kiwi. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive dollar sentiment and waning investor risk appetite; Kiwi sales on cross trades versus major currencies.
Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7730. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.77. The pivot point stands at 0.7830. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7910 and the second target at 0.7955.
Resistance levels:
0.7910
0.7955
0.8035
Support levels:
0.7730
0.77
0.7675
Fundamental Overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a range. It is undermined by the weak EUR sentiment, reduced investor risk appetite; worse-than-expected drop in U.K. GfK consumer confidence index to -1.0 in September from +1.0 in August (versus forecast of 0.0). and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY downside move is limited by the demand from Japanese importers and buoyant USD/JPY undertone and by the sterling demand on buoyant GBP/NZD cross as well as expectations of rate increase from Bank of England in early 2015.
Technical Comment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 178.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90.
Resistance levels:
179.15
179.90
180.35
Support levels:
176.75
175.80
175.30
Overview:
Our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6215 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). Our Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.6300 held successful, which is a sign that buying looks risky. According to the 4H time frame, EUR/NZD is in a bearish corrective phase. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6165 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5900. Anyway, to confirm further bullish movement, the price needs to break the level of 1.6300 in a high volume and with healthy price action.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.6426
R2: 1.6506
R3: 1.6635
Support levels:
S1: 1.6169
S2: 1.6090
S3: 1.5961
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair, since we since we can observe bearish corrective phase
Today's support and resistance levels:
R3: 1.6338
R2: 1.6309
R1: 1.6266
Current spot: 1.6247
S1: 1.6217
S2: 1.6190
S3: 1.6155
Technical summary:
The correction from the 1.6446 high has been deeper than expected and we could see a move slightly lower to 1.6190 and even 1.6155, but this support should be able to protect the downside for the next rally above 1.6337 confirming the next rally higher towards 1.6803 and higher. Longer term we are looking for much higher levels, but need to allow for this correction to unfold first.
Trading recommendation:
We are long in EUR from 1.5826 with stop place at 1.6100. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6190 with the same stop at 1.6100.
The Dollar index made a short-term pull back towards 85.50 as expected yesterday and did not break lower. The trend remains bullish as long as we trade above yesterday's lows and we should expect new highs. If support is broken a bigger downward correction will start.
Red line = resistance
Blue line= support
Green line = price channel
At 85.50 we find the important short-term support. If this support is broken we should expect the Dollar index to break lower towards 85. The trend is neutral in the 30-minute chart and we should wait for a breakout signal above 85.66 or below 85.47 before opening a position.
Green line = price channel
Red line = resistance
The longer-term trend remains fully bullish. According to the ichimoku cloud indicators trend remains fully bullish. Only if we see a change in the slope of the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen we should worrying for a bigger trend reversal. Important support is at 85.50 area. If broken, a deeper correction will start towards 85 or even 84.50. On the other hand, we could see one more new high at least if we break and close the day above 85.66.
Gold price remains unable to make a strong bounce. Although price remains above critical short-term support at $1,207, the sideways move will soon be over with more chances favoring the bearish scenario for a push lower towards $1,180. Short-term trend is neutral while intermediate- and long-term trend remain bearish.
Blue line= support
Green line = price channel
Gold price remains inside the downward sloping channel and below the Ichimoku cloud. The resistance at $1,220-30 remains intact and so does the support at $1.212 and $1,207. Today or the latest tomorrow I expect Gold price to make a break out. If it breaks support I will prefer short positions targeting $1,180. If resistance breaks, I will remain neutral as this would be a countertrend bounce. I would prefer to wait for the bounce towards $1,240-50 to complete before selling again.
Blue line = support
Red line = resistance
In the 30-minute chart as shown above, the short-term trend line that was upward sloping has been broken. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and as long as support at $1,212 holds, bulls still have a chance of a break out towards $1,240. I remain longer-term bearish and I believe that short-term traders should only look for selling opportunities and signals.
EUR/USD: This is a bearish market. With more bearish journey, the price could stay below the resistance line at 1.2750, while targeting the support line at 1.2600. The resistance lines at 1.2750 and 1.2800 should serve as barriers against bullish attempts that may happen long the way.
USD/CHF: The strength in the Greenback is one of the reasons why this pair is going upwards. There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, brought about by the perpetual weakness in the EUR/USD and the perceived strength in the Greenback. Since the middle of July 2014, the market has moved upwards by close to 600 pips, and this would continue as long as the Greenback is strong. Any sudden weakness in the Greenback can enable the price to be pulled back towards the support levels at 0.9450 and 0.9400 respectively.
GBP/USD: The Forex markets are now at critical points. For instance, the bias on the Cable is bearish but there is a need for the price to go below the accumulation territory at 1.6200 so that the bias could be stronger. On the other hand, a rally above the distribution territory at 1.6350 would mean the end of the bearish bias.
USD/JPY: This is a bullish market as well and the pair is currently trading above the demand level at 109.00. There is a possibility that the price could reach the supply level at 110.00, but should there be a sudden stamina in the Yen, the price could tumble.
EUR/JPY: This cross is also making some bullish attempts, following the bearish run that happened on it last week. With a continuation of the southward movement, the price could break below the demand zone at 138.50, going towards another demand zone at 138.00.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
The cable took the support at the 61.8 fib level and pulled back towards 20Dsma. Today, the pair opened above the previous close and looks stronger. Now, as of today, the pair has made a high at 1.6268 unable to breach previous days high . The pair has strong resistance at 1.6285 20Dsma, above this it can fly up to 1.6333 and 1.6342 levels. The cable has a strong resistance zone at 1.64-1.6415 and 1.6410 on closing basis. If a daily close is above 1.6410, the near-term view turns to positive with upside targets at 1.6465, 1.65, and 1.6563; until then sell on every up move.
For an intraday move, the pair has been facing strong resistance at 12ema or 1.6275 above this, 1.6320 will act as strong resistance. On the downside, it has support at 1.6225 and 1.6215 below these, selling pressure will lead in this pair towards the 1.62,1.6185, and 1.6160 levels.
Safe buy above 1.6320, risky traders buy at 1.63.
Sell below 1.6215.
The pair breached the 200Msma but unable to sustain above that. Today's closing will provide further room in the near and short term. A monthly close above 177.65 adds further bullish thought. The pair has support at 177.15, below this at 176.65 and 176.40 levels. The pair is making a symmetric triangle on the daily chart. The height of the triangle is 2 units. The trend decider levels existed at 177.15 on the downside and 178.20 on the higher side. The weekly support existed at the 175.28 level. If a daily close is below 20Dsma, the pair will fall to the 173.51 levels.
For an intraday view, the prices are closed below 35DEMA and 12ema levels. Safe traders can sell below 177.38 and risky traders can sell at cmp 177.70 using sl 178.20. Huge buying will take place above 178.20 with an upside target at 178.45-178.50 and 178.75, maybe 179.20.
Huge buying above 178.20.
The pair hit the 50Wsma and closed below the upper end of the descending triangle. This week, as of now the pair is facing strong resistance at 139.20 unable to breach it. The Japanese key data are pending in today's session. The retail sales, household spending and Preliminary industrial production will determine a further trend. The safe buy will trigger above the 140 level. The pair has support at the 138.38 and 138 levels, below these the pair will face selling pressure. For the latest 2 days, the pair has managed to close above 20Dsma. If a daily close is below 20Dsma, the weekly trend turns to more negativity. The weekly support existed between the 137.75-137.70 levels.
Support 138.38 138 137.75-137.70
Resistance 139.15 139.65 140 on cb
For an intraday view, the prices are closed below the hourly key moving averages. A strong sell will emerge below 138.65 with a downside target at 138.50, 138.38, below this at the 138, 137.75-137.70 levels. The free fall mode will trigger below 138.38. Currently, the pair is trading on a verge of a break down level in the h4 chart.
Sell below 138.65; panic will be below 138.38.
Buy above 139.15.
The stronger US data have dominated in the recent weeks. The pair is trading at 109.41 near the resistance level of 110.66. Today the US data will provide enough support to breach the near resistance for further increase towards 112 and 114.70 in the near term. Japan will release key data: retail sales, household spending and prelim industrial production. On the higher side, 114.70 is the 80.0 fib level from 124 levels in June 2007 to 75.57 in October 2011. The pair has support at 106.50 200MSma on a closing basis. On the US dollar front, as we recommended earlier, in case of a breach above the $85 mark, the yen is expected to tick down towards 114, 118, 120, and 123 in the longer time frames. We mentioned the same probability in December 2013 when this pair was trading around 99). Again, we recommended 101 levels on July 11, 2014. This pair is on a verge of another breakout in the monthly chart. Today is the last trading day in this month and the quarter. Today's closing will give further direction.
A close above the trend line adds a further bullish sign towards 120-123- pending
For an intraday view, the pair is facing strong resistance at 35DEMA. We recommend buying above 109.50. The pair has support at 109.30, 109.10 and 109. We expect some weakness only below 109 towards 108.50 and 108.25. Use a dip to buy.
When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Retail Sales m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, German Unemployment Change, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2750.
Strong Resistance:1.2742.
Original Resistance: 1.2730.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2710.
Target Inner Area: 1.2688.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2658.
Original Support: 1.2646.
Strong Support: 1.2624.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2626.
In Asia, Japan will release the Household Spending y/y, Unemployment Rate, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Retail Sales y/y, Average Cash Earnings y/y, Housing Starts y/y and the US will release some economic data such as S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 109.98.
Resistance. 2: 109.77.
Resistance. 1: 109.55.
Support. 1: 109.28.
Support. 2: 109.07.
Support. 3: 108.85.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The USDX continues to show great strength in the current bullish trend in the H4 chart. This strength is because the USDX has found strong support at the bullish trend line there near the 85.50 level, which has helped this instrument consolidate in the current trend and so it is very likely that the USDX will try to go up to the level of 86.75, where another bullish trend line is.
H4 chart's resistance levels: 86.75 – 86.30
H4 chart's support levels: 85.06 - 84.52
In the H1 chart we see that USDX continues moving in a range, due to a bullish consolidation being carried out above the support level of 85.49. If the USDX gets away from that dominated by bearish force area, it would be expected to rise to the resistance level of 85.95 in the short term. The USDX is still holding above the 200-day moving average on this chart.
H1 chart's resistance levels: 85.73 - 85.95
H1 chart's support levels: 85.49 - 85.27
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.27, take profit is at 85.49, and stop loss is at 85.03.
At the H4 chart, GBP/USD has been in a precipitous drop from the 200 SMA, where the pair performed a pullback, forming various patterns of a bearish fall to the support level of 1.6247. A breakout below this level could lead the GBP/USD to touch the support level of 1.6051 in the medium term.
H4 chart's resistance levels: 1.6435 - 1.6464
H4 chart's support levels: 1.6247 - 1.6051
However, we must stress the bearish consolidation that is taking the GBP/USD on the H1 chart, because this pair still remains below the 200 SMA. However, the GBP/USD had performed a rebound on the support level of 1.6216, but hours later, the pair performed a pullback near the level of 1.6265; next bearish target for this pair is the support level of 1.6218. The MACD indicator is trying to show overbought levels.
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6252 – 1.6291
H1 chart's support levels: 1.6216 – 1.6170
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6338, take profit is at 1.6375, and stop loss is at 1.6299.
Overview :
Overview :
The weekly chart :
Intraday Key Levels :
Overview:
On July 15, extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been downtrending limited by the depicted downtrend line.
Two bearish impulses were initiated around 1.7180 and 1.6630 corresponding to the downtrend line.
The price level of 1.6140 constituted a prominent weekly support to meet the pair. Bullish rejection was witnessed in the recent daily candlesticks. This led to a previous bullish weekly closure ( above the weekly support level around 1.6250 ).
Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6350-1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse is expected to be applied.
This price zone corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted channels as well as Fibonacci level of the recent bearish impulse between 1.7180 and 1.6060.
Trading recommendations:
Based on the previous data, the market offered a valid SELL opportunity around 1.6460 during last week's consolidations.
This short position remains valid as long as the bears keep defending price zone of 1.6310-1.6400 ( 23.6% Fibonacci level and previous top).
Bearish targets are located around 1.6160 and 1.6080.
Around price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart), the market paused the previous bullish momentum, thus initiating the current downtrend within the depicted bearish channel.
Several congestion zones were established around the price levels of 1.3515 and 1.3335 before further bearish decline could take place.
Two weeks ago, the pair showed bullish recovery around price level of 1.2860. However, the following bearish engulfing daily candlestick indicated severe weakness of the bulls.
This enhanced the bearish trend towards 1.2750 and 1.2680 as initial target levels.
Today's daily candlestick should be monitored for bullish rejection. The EUR/USD pair is currently testing the lower limit of the ongoing bearish channel. That's why, any signs of bullish reversal should indicate upcoming corrective movement towards 1.3060.
The current short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2995 (the recent weekly high). Moreover, another descending high was established on Wednesday around 1.2920.
The bearish slide below 1.2820 invalidated the possibility of a bullish reversal. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2750 and 1.2680 took place shortly after achieving the projection targets of the bearish flag pattern.
Careful watching of price action around the current price levels is essential to determine the next destination of the EUR/USD pair.
In case the bulls initiate a corrective movement around the lower limit of the channel being tested today, the first target levels to be visited should be located around 1.2940 and 1.3060.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver remains locked between $17.30 and $18.00 since a few days as seen here. The trend remains bearish with Silver clearly trading in the sell zone at the moment. A push below $17.30 levels would see further lows into $16.00. Immediate support remains at $17.30 (interim) while resistance is seen at $18.00 (interim), followed by $18.60/90 and above respectively. The metal needs to clear $18.00 at least, for bulls to regain control. Furthermore, a break above the sloping trend line, which is passing through $18.90 levels for now, would instill further confidence in the bullish setup.
Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Gold remains in a trading range between $1,00.00/05.00 and $1,230.00/40.00 for now. The metal is attempting to rally at the moment but a break above $1,240.00 would be imminent for bulls to remain in further control. On the flip side, a break below $1,206.00 would drag prices towards $1,180.00/85.00 at least. It is recommended to exit long positions taken last week and remain flat, awaiting a break on either side. Immediate support is at $1,206.00 (interim), followed by $1,180.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,230.00/40, followed by $1,275.00 and higher respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Exit long positions for now (remain conservative). Wait for a range break to enter again.
Good luck!
Overview:
Our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6441 in an ultra high volume (buying climax). Our Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.6300 is on the test so be very careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage. We can observe buying climax according to the 4H time frame, so we may see potential reaction from sellers (bearish correction) before any larger bullish continuation. Anyway, to confirm futher bullish movement, the price needs to break the level of 1.6300 in a high volume and with healthy price action.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.6148
R2: 1.6176
R3: 1.6222
Support levels:
S1: 1.6056
S2: 1.6028
S3: 1.57982
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we may see a bearish corrective phase
