Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

A bullish path is very strong on the GBP/USD daily chart because the pair is looking to rise until the resistance zone of 1.5745. We could expect some kind of sideways consolidation above the 200 SMA in this time frame as the pair is trading in favor of the overall trend. The MACD indicator is already supporting the current bullish bias.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is already trading with a bullish pattern formation in progress as the pair is looking to reach new highs after a possible breakout at the resistance level of 1.5706 in the short term. Currently, we can observe some fractals in the current short-term bullish structure, which is already calling for more upside move.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5745 / 1.5907

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5371

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5706 / 1.5794

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5597 / 1.5533

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5706, take profit is at 1.5794, and stop loss is at 1.5617.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 12, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why the market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout and the depicted weekly uptrend).

That is why we expected these price levels to provide significant signs of bullish price action. However, bearish breakout shouldn't be excluded this week as bearish pressure has originated this week (successive lower highs were expressed around the price zone of 1.2100-1.2150).

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2330-1.2350 remains a significant intraday resistance zone for further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry while retesting.

Trading recommendations:

Risky traders could have taken a buy entry anywhere around the price level of 1.1950. T/P is projected at 1.2100, 1.2270 and 1.2320.

Note that breakdown of the recent low at 1.1940 invalidates this bullish scenario.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2300-1.2340 for a low-risk sell entry. T/P levels should be placed at 1.2220, 1.2100, and 1.1950 while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 12, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Significant supply levels located around 1.5300 (weekly 38.2% Fibonacci level) and 1.5500 (weekly 50% Fibonacci level) have been providing significant supply over the GBP/USD pair for a few months.

Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

As mentioned in the previous articles, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly supply zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (roughly corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level), where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

The current weekly candlestick closure should be monitored to determine the next destination of the pair.

As anticipated, persistence above the weekly supply at 1.5530 ends the ongoing bearish trend for a few weeks.

Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency had been expressed on the daily chart until the bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a Full-body bullish candlesticks).

The price zone between 1.5000 and 1.5050 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) now constitutes the prominent demand level for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, it offered a valid buy entry for retesting that took place on Tuesday. S/L can be advanced to 1.5250 to secure some profits now.

As already mentioned, daily candlestick closure above the weekly supply zone 1.5500-1.5530 exposed the next supply level located at 1.5730 (100% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing).

The next SUPPLY level to meet the pair is located near the price level of 1.5950 (141.4% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing) if enough bullish momentum is maintained above 1.5740.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 12, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1,500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle as depicted on the chart.

This probably hinders further bearish decline for some time. On the other hand, it enhances a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1600 if a daily closure persists above the level of 1.1250.

In the long term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level of 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 allowed the market to fall dramatically shortly afterwards.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

The price zone between 1.1050 and 1.1150 failed to neutralize the ongoing bullish momentum.

Moreover, a bullish continuation pattern with an ascending bottom was previously established around the level of 1.0650.

This applied a strong bullish pressure over the prominent supply levels at 1.1150 and 1.1240. Thus, bears failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

The current daily candlestick closure should be monitored for further price analysis as daily persistence above the price levels of 1.1150 and 1.1250 enhances the bullish side of the market. This exposes the nearest daily supply level at 1.1500 for quick retesting.

On the other hand, the failure to close above 1.1250 indicates further sideway movement without significant bullish momentum.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 12, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. Liquidity was thin in Asia today as financial markets in Japan were shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY is undermined by weaker USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.10 versus 95.44 early Tuesday) after much wider-than-expected US March trade deficit of $51.37 billion (versus forecast $42.5 billion). USD/JPY is also weighed by the flows to haven JPY amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 11.36% to 14.31, S&P 500 closed 1.18% lower at 2,089.46 overnight) on weak trade data from the US, sharp 4.06% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index on Tuesday, and concerns about Greece's standoff with its creditors. But USD sentiment is soothed by an unexpected rise in the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI to 57.8 in April from 56.5 in March (versus forecast for drop to 56.3). USD/JPY losses are also tempered by higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.181% versus 2.135% late Monday) and sell-yen orders from Japan importers.

Technical comment:
The daily chart mixed as the MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics are turning bearish near overbought levels. Bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Tuesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.25 and the second target at 120.50. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.40. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119. The pivot point is at 119.80.

Resistance levels:
120.50
120.75
121

Support levels:
119.40
119
118.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 12, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a near-three-month low of 0.9233 on Tuesday. Undermined by weaker USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.10 versus 95.44 early Tuesday) after wider-than-expected US March trade deficit of $51.37 billion (versus forecast $42.5 billion) and franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9190. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9135. The pivot point stands at 0.9295. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9360 and the second target at 0.9415.

Resistance levels:
0.9360
0.9415
0.9450
Support levels:
0.9190
0.9135
0.9065

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 12, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the higher-than-expected New Zealand Q1 unemployment rate of 5.8% (versus forecast 5.5%); 3.5% drop in Fonterra's GDT Price Index, 1.8% fall in average price for whole milk powder to $2,386/mt at latest Global Dairy Trade auction, increased risk aversion, and kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by weaker USD sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7340. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.73. The pivot point stands at 0.7415. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7460 and the second target at 0.75.

Resistance Levels:
0.7460
0.75
0.7550

Support levels:
0.7340
0.73
0.7265

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