Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the softer dollar sentiment and lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.948% versus 2.009% late Thursday) after a weaker-than-expected third estimate of the US Q4 GDP annual growth rate of +2.2% (versus forecast +2.4%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports. The USD sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected US March UoM final consumer sentiment index of 93.0 (versus forecast 92.0). The USD/JPY downside is also limited by the diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 4.62% to 15.07; S&P 500 closed up 0.24% at 2,061.02 Friday), demand from Japan's importers, and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining. Stochastics is turned bullish at oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.30 and the second target at 120.55. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.85. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.30. The pivot point is at 119.25.

Resistance levels:

120.30

120.55

120.85

Support levels:

118.85

118.30

117.85

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the softer dollar sentiment and lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.948% versus 2.009% late Thursday) after a weaker-than-expected third estimate of the US GDP Q4 annual growth rate of +2.2% (versus forecast +2.4%). The USD/CHF downside is limited by the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish at oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to be trading in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9720 and the second target at 0.7765. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7525. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7485. The pivot point is at 0.7570.

Resistance levels:

0.9720

0.9760

0.9820

Support levels:

0.9525

0.9485

0.9425

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weak commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 1.97% at 215.16 Friday), kiwi sales on the buoyant EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD crosses. The NZD/USD losses are tempered by the softer dollar sentiment, receding investor risk aversion, and kiwi demand on the soft AUD/NZD cross.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7455. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7370. The pivot point stands at 0.7600. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7675 and the second target at 0.7750.

Resistance levels:

0.7675

0.7750

0.78

Support levels:

0.7455

0.7370

0.7340

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. The cross is supported by the diminished investor risk aversion and demand from Japan's importers. The GBP/JPY upside is limited by the Japanese exports. The sterling sentiment is boosted after Bank of England's Broadbent said that the chances of a deflation in the UK are slim, while Bank of England Governor Carney said the "central view" of the Monetary Policy Committee is that the next move in the interest rates is going to be a hike.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is neutral.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 178.30 and the second target at 178.90. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 176. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 175.45. The pivot point is at 176.55.

Resistance levels:

178.30

179.30

178.65

Support levels:
176

175.45

175

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

On February 5, temporary bullish breakout above 1.5220 (previous consolidation range) took place. Shortly after, an ascending channel was established at the level of 1.5170-1.5200. This indicates bullish sentiment on the market.

A projected target for this bullish breakout has already been reached around 1.5550 where the previous daily bottoms were located (solid resistance).

Two weeks ago, the bearish breakdown of lower limit of the depicted channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market and confirming the Flag pattern as bearish.

Significant bearish pressure was applied at the price of 1.5200 (R2), then 1.4950 (R1 = broken weekly bottom).

Bearish persistence below 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline. Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700.

Recently, GBP/USD bulls managed to defend the recent bottom at 1.4700. Evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4630 resulting in the formation of a bullish head and shoulders reversal pattern.

Fixation above 1.4980-1.5000 (neck-line) is likely to extend the pattern's projection target towards 1.5200.

Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair remains in the long-term downtrend as depicted on both the daily and weekly charts. If so, bearish breakdown of 1.4700 is needed to resume this bearish scenario.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for the H4 closure above 1.5000 for a short-term buy entry.

TP levels should be set at 1.5080, 1.5120, and finally at 1.5200.

SL should be set as daily closure below 1.4900.

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EUR/NZD : analysis for March 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downwards. The price has tested the level of 1.4382 in a high volume. The price found resistance around the level of 1.4440 (our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%). The short-term trend is neutral. So, be careful when trading EUR/NZD. First major support is seen around the level of 1.4320 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%) and if the price breaks the level of 1.4440, we may see a potential test of the levels of 1.4490-1.4560.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4431

R2: 1.4472

R3: 1.4538

Support levels:

S1: 1.4300

S2: 1.4260

S3: 1.4192

Trading recommendations: We are in neutral trend. So we need to see a clear direction in the next period to search for better opportunities.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level the market looks quite overbought.

However, bullish pressure is still expressed as the previous weekly closure came above 1.2550 (consolidation zone mid-line).

Successive lower highs were established within the wedge pattern. However, the market expressed a bullish breakout above 1.2550-1.2600 shortly after.

The market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a double-top pattern that calls for confirmation (daily closure below 1.2350).

On the other hand, the support level around 1.2350 (lower limit of the wedge pattern) and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) have been providing support for successive weeks on the daily chart.

In the long term, a projected target for USD/CAD wedge pattern would be located near the level of 1.3050 (the origin of the last bearish swing initiated on March 2009).

Last week, the resulting weekly candlestick came strongly positive (bullish hammer) closing above the price level of 1.2550 (mid-zone of the consolidation range) which failed to provide enough resistance for the pair.

This enhances the bullish side of the market. The next resistance level, hence the next target to meet the USD/CAD pair is located at 1.2790.

Trading recommendations:

As anticipated for risky traders, bearish pullback towards 1.2350 was considered for buy entry, which is running in profits now. S/L is likely to be located slightly below 1.2300.

T/P levels to be located at 1.2550, 1.2700 and finally 1.3050.

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