Review and forecast of USD/CAD for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

IMPACT ON THE USD-

Today, the focus has shifted to PPI, core PPI, and prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Yesterday, the economic data gave another uptick to the economy. In the week ending December 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 294,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 297,000. The 4-week moving average was 299,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 299,000, according to the source from DOL. Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November showing utmost growth in eight months. The lower crude oil prices are affecting greatly the retail sales data.

IMPACT ON THE CAD-

The Canada new housing pricing index rose 0.1% in October, following an identical increase in September.

TECHNCIAL VIEW

The pair erased the double top formation and gave a strong close at yesterday's session. Today, the pair opened with a bullish bias, but was unable to break the previous day's high at 1.1549. As of now, the pair made a high at 1.1548 levels. We have been recommending buying on every dip with the targets at 1.1570, 1.1640, and 1.1740 on a positional basis. We still recommend the same strategy. Today, bulls can hardly hold the gains above 1.1476. In case if the prices close above 1.1502 on a daily basis, it can challenge 1.1540, 1.1565, and 1.1575 in the near term. At yesterday's session, the pair met the criteria and touched 1.1540. Again, we recommend fresh buying above 1.1550 with the targets at 1.1565, 1.1575, and 1.1590. The intraday support exists at 1.1500. On the h4 chart, the pair gave an upswing to running symmetric triangle breakout height of 145 pips and a minor ascending triangle breakout height of 103. Both the triangle breakouts are aiming at the 1.1604 levels.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

IMPACT ON THE EURO-

The second allotment of the TLRO came in at 129.84 billion Euros, but it was expected at 148 84 billion Euros. Today, the focus has shifted to the industrial production report, employment change data, and German wholesale price index. We are expecting industrial production to rise by 0.2% or 0.3% after a progress in October. As for the employment data, we are expecting the same. Speaking about Germany's WPI, we are expecting 0.3% growth after a 0.6% fall.

IMPACT ON THE USD-

Today, traders are focused on PPI, core PP,I and prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

TECHNICAL VIEW

The pair made a triple top at 1.2448 (rounded to 1.2450) and closed below 20Dsma. At the session on Wednesday, we recommended buying at 1.2400 with the targets at 1.2460, 1.2500, and 1.2560. At yesterday's session, the pair made a high at 1.2497 and turned back to the lows again. The pair has parallel support at 1.2387 and 1.2360. Today, the pair opened below the previous close and is trading below that. We recommend Intraday fresh selling below 1.2360 with the targets at 1.2340 and 1.2300. Bears hold the grip, until the prices close below 1.2450 on a daily closing basis. On the higher side, it has resistance at 1.2420 and 1.2430.

Trade: sell below 1.2360.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: EUR/USD is now at a critical stage in which there is no clear direction. It is either price would break below the support line at 1.2300 to make the recent bearish outlook become strengthened further, or price would break above the resistance line at 1.2500 to underline bulls’ supremacy. However, the former scenario is more likely.

USD/CHF: USD/CHF is now at a critical stage in which there is no clear direction. It is either price would break below the support level at 0.9600 to make a bearish outlook conspicuous, or price would break above the resistance level at 0.9800 in order to strengthen the recent bullish trend. However, the latter scenario is more likely.

GBP/USD: The Cable is still engaged in a slow and steady bullish run – something that has maintained the novel bullish bias. Slowly and steadily, price could reach the distribution territory at 1.5800, and this is something that would strengthen the new bullish bias more.

USD/JPY: This market now looks difficult to trade and it would be OK to wait till there would be a clear direction. Nevertheless, the most likely direction would be northwards. Price is expected to manage its way above the supply level at 120.00, after which things would turn bullish again.

EUR/JPY: The recent Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market has been considered useless as bulls and bears continue their battle. It is better to stay away until there is a clear direction because there are mixed signals in the market. For example, the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 (showing a bearish signal), while the RSI period 14 is above the level 50 (showing a bullish signal).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German WPI m/m, Industrial Production m/m, and Employment Change q/q. Besides, the US will release the economic data too such as the PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2455.

Strong Resistance:1.2448.

Original Resistance: 1.2436.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2424.

Target Inner Area: 1.2395.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2366.

Original Support: 1.2354.

Strong Support: 1.2342.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2335.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m. Today, the US will also release some important reports such as PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

Resistance. 3: 119.54.

Resistance. 2: 119.31.

Resistance. 1: 119.07.

Support. 1: 118.79.

Support. 2: 118.55.

Support. 3: 118.32.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair dropped to 1.5100 levels yesterday, before raising back into 1.5230 levels as seen here. The pair could face intermediary resistance from the backside of support trend line around current levels. Please note that the pair has bounced from fibonacci 0.786 support and just ahead of 1.5075 levels, which is past support as seen here. It is recommended to remain ling for now, risk at 1.5000 levels. Bulls should remain in control till prices remain above 1.5075 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.5075 levels, followed by 1.4950 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5350/60 levels, followed by 1.5450/75 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop at 1.5000, the target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has taken support from the $1,215.00 region yesterday. Please also note that the metal has bounced off the immediate trend line support as well. A push above $1,240.00 now, could bring the metal at $1,255.00 levels at least, on the flip side a break below the trend line support could test lower levels, before the rally resumes. Immediate support is seen at $1,215.00 (interim), followed by $1,190.00, $1,142.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,255.00 and higher up respectively. It is recommended to look to buy Gold on further dips towards $1,180.00 levels from here on.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now, look to buy lower. Aggressive setup is to remain long, stop at $1,213.00, the target is at $1,255.00.

Good luck!

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