Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 1, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate. NZD/USD is undermined by the increasing risk aversion, the positive dollar sentiment, weak dairy prices and continued impact from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Gov. Wheeler's comment last week that the Kiwi's strength is "unjustified and unsustainable" and hint of a pause in the RBNZ's rate-tightening cycle. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the NZD-USD interest differential and Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics is staying suppressed in the oversold zone, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8560 and the second target at 0.8585. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8430. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.84. The pivot point is at 0.8460.

Resistance levels:

0.8560

0.8585

0.8620

Support levels:

0.8430

0.84

0.8375

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 1, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower rande. Financial markets in Switzerland were shut today for the bank holiday. USD/CHF is supported by the positive dollar sentiment and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF upside is limited by the flows to haven CHF amid increasing risk aversion, franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated in the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9025. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9. The pivot point stands at 0.9095. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9110 and the second target at 0.9130.

Resistance levels:

0.9110

0.9130

0.9155



Support levels:

0.9025

0.9

0.8975

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 1, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with risks skewed lower. USD/JPY is undermined by selling of yen crosses amid increasing risk aversion (VIX fear gauge surged 27.16% to 16.95, S&P 500 tumbled 2.0% to close at 1,930.67 overnight) amid worries that interest rates might rise sooner than expected after Wednesday's strong U.S. 2Q GDP report, fears of contagion on emerging markets from Argentina's debt default. USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.46 versus 81.42 early Thursday) as Wednesday's strong U.S. 2Q GDP data continue to impact; positions adjustment before the weekend. U.S. data overnight were mixed as higher-than-expected +0.7% rise in U.S. 2Q employment cost index (versus forecast +0.5%) and less-than-expected 302,000 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended July 26 (versus forecast 305,000) offset surprise drop in U.S. ISM-Chicago PMI to one-year low of 52.6 in July from 62.6 in June (versus forecast for rise to 63.0).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but stochastics is turning bearish in the overbought zone, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 102.40. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 102.15. The pivot point stands at 103. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.15 and the second target at 103.40.

Resistance levels:

103.15

103.40

103.75

Support levels:

102.40

102.15

101.85

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 1, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish a bias. GBP/JPY is undermined by the increased risk aversion and Japan's export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are in a bullish mode, five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172.70. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 172.45. The pivot point stands at 173.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.75 and the second target at 174.20.

Resistance levels:

173.75

174.20

174.55



Support levels:
172.70

172.40

172

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 1, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5900

R2: 1.5868

R1: 1.5845

Current spot: 1.5825

S1: 1.5795

S2: 1.5774

S3: 1.5756

Technical summary:

We've reached a new high at 1.5825 where we should expect a continuation higher to the next extension target at 1.5900 and maybe even higher. Short-term minor support at 1.5795 ideally will protect the downside for the rally higher to 1.5900. In the longer term, we are looking for much higher levels closer to 1.6205 and higher.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.5525 and will move stop higher to 1.5750. If you are not long in EUR yet, then but EUR near 1.5795 with the same stop at 1.5750.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 1, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 138.44

R2: 138.11

R1: 138.05

Current spot: 137.91

S1: 137.72

S2: 137.56

S3: 137.25

Technical summary:

Red wave iv is still unfolding, but it should still stop next to resistance at 138.05, from where a new strong decline to 135.49 is expected. In the longer term, we are still looking for a decline to the equality target at 134.34, where wave C will be equal in length to wave A. At this point, only a break above 138.11 will invalidate the bearish scenario. At 138.12, red wave iv will overlap red wave i, which in not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle.

Trading recommendation:

We will sell EUR at 138.00 or upon a break below support at 137.73 with stop placed at 138.25.

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#USDX Technical analysis for August 1, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index remains in an uptrend that started at 79.75. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart as shown below and the price is making higher highs and higher lows. Short-term support is found at 81.40. If broken, it can fall towards 81.25. Short-term resistance is at 81.60. Breaking above it will push the index closer to our 81.75 target.

In the daily chart as shown below, we clearly see that the trend remains bullish and the price is still inside the upward sloping channel. The price is also above the Ichimoku cloud and getting closer to our target of 81.75. A pullback towards 81 cannot be ruled out. This would be a buy opportunity.

The upward move that started at 79.75 is not complete yet. Even if we see a strong pullback towards 81, we should see after that a new higher high maybe towards 82.

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