Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for March 26, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD

Fundamental factors-

The German Ifo business confidence index fell for the first time for five months in March, data showed on Tuesday, as the Crimea crisis hurts the sentiment in Europe's biggest economy. The Ifo economic institute's closely watched business climate index fell to 110.7 points this month from 111.3 points in February. The Euro fell against most of its 16 major counterparts as below-forecast European business data fueled speculation that the region’s economy may struggle further to recover. On the other hand, the Fed indicated it could raise the US short-term rates earlier than expected, which is highly negative for the euro. Is this the starting point for trend reversal in EUR/USD?

Technical factors-

Forecast

EUR/USD made a long-term top in 2008 at the level of 1.6038. Since then it has corrected in a huge down trend channel which seems to be a double zigzag correction. Currently, it seems to have completed 'x' inside the larger Y of DZZ near 1.40, which is also weekly Channel Resistance, or if the pair trades above the level 1.3966, it may extend its rally up to 1.41 levels. With RSI Negative Divergence signaling reversal break, the area below 1.36 would be an indication of the short-term trend reversal towards 1.32.

Intraday-

In the H4 chart, the pair is trading between the levels at 1.3749-1.3853. RSI is giving a positive indication, we expect the up move still to continue with sl at 1.3749. In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.3827 facing immediate resistance levels at 1.3830 and 1.3853. On the down side, the support exists at 1.3814 and 1.3780. If the pair breaks the 1.3749 level, next strong support level exists at 1.3714.

In the daily chart, RSI favors sell side. So any pull back leads to generate sell positions, and huge short covering will take place if the pair breaks the 1.3966 level on up side, until it go shorts on a positional basis at higher levels.

S1 1.3815 R1 1.3876

S2 1.3749 R2 1.3934

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 26, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as GfK German Consumer Climate, Italian Retail Sales m/m, Italian Prelim CPI m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Flash Services PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Bank Stress Test Results, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3886.

Strong Resistance:1.3877.

Original Resistance: 1.3864.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3851.

Target Inner Area: 1.3818.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3785.

Original Support: 1.3772.

Strong Support: 1.3769.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3750.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3772 and 1.3864. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3769 and by 1.3877 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3750 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3886 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3785 and at 1.3851, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3818.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the CPI y/y, and the US will release some economic data such as Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Flash Services PMI, Crude Oil Inventories,Bank Stress Test Results. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.81.

Resistance. 2: 102.61.

Resistance. 1: 102.41.

Support. 1: 102.16.

Support. 2: 101.96.

Support. 3: 101.76.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.76) and resistance 3 (102.81). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



For detail explanation and best discovery on market trends you may visit via Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014 . Thanks for your support on Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for March 26, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: This is a bear market, and it is expected that the price would continue to go bearish in spite of the current turbulence in the market (plus the fact that there is a serious battle between the bulls and the bears). The support line at 1.3750 was tested last week, and this week; it is going to be tested again. Ultimately, the support line would be breached to the downside, as the price goes to the main target at 0.3700.

USD/CHF: The bias on the USD/CHF is bullish, though the market is currently volatile.In spite of the volatility, it is assumed that the bulls would continue to gain upper hands, pushing the price towards the resistance level at 0.8900, which is our target for this week or next week.

GBP/USD: There is a rally in this market, but it is expected to be transient. This is because the extant outlook is southward. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, though the RSI period 14 is almost giving a bullish signal. Should the price drop further, especially from the distribution territory at 1.6550, the price could reach the accumulation territory at 1.6450. At this time, the RSI period 14 would have crossed the level 50 to the downside.

USD/JPY: Basically, this is a sideways market, but it is likely that that the price would go upwards when it breaks out of the sideways phase. Upon a close look at the chart, it could be seen that the bulls are slightly exuding some preponderance in the market.

EUR/JPY: This cross is as good as being flat. Therefore, one would do well to wait for the next directional move before one takes a position. It is either the price would break the supply zone at 142.00 to the upside, or break the demand zone at 141.00 to the downside.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014 Trend News

The USD/JPY moved sideways in a narrow range between 102.01 and 102.50. Resistance is at 102.50, a break above this level will trigger another rise to test the 103.76 resistance. Support is at 102.01, a break down below this level will signal completion of the uptrend from 101.20, then the following downward movement could bring the price to the 100 and 98.00 zone.

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Technical analysis of USDX for March 26, 2014 Trend News

The data released on Tuesday showed U.S. Consumer confidence touching a six-year high in March and house prices rising in January. The majority of the FOMC members expect the first rate hike in 2015, which is a bullish note. The US Dollar Index has made a Double Bottom near 79 and reversed up. With Positive Divergence on RSI, the US Dollar Index has broken out of the short-term Falling Wedge. With this, the Correction in Wave 2 or X seems to have completed. Further breakout above 81 will be indicated to move towards 85 and perhaps 90 and above in the months to come.

In the daily chart, the US Dollar is facing strong resistance level at 80.34 (50SMA). If the price crosses the 50SMA level, it will fly up to 80.73 and 81.32 in the near term. On the down side, the level of 79.77 (50SMA) is acting as strong support, below it 79.27-79 is the major support.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for March 26, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair has continued upward movements inside an impulsive [iii] wave (coloured black) of the bigger wave C (coloured blue). In the hourly chart above, we can see that wave [iii] is unfolding in an double three pattern, and should currently be inside the final c of (y) wave. For traders who are holding long in the pair, we should start to consider moving our stops to break even or to close half of the positions at 0.9200 and leave rest to run. For trading opportunity today, we can only look for some short-term buying opportunity if we see a pullback, or to wait [iii] wave to complete the cycle from the 0.8993 level and to try sell the [iv] wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [iii] should extend 161.8% of wave [i], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [i] with take profit at 0.9210 (161.8% of wave [i] ). To protect our buying position, we are going to use the low at the 0.9100 level as the stop loss point.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9077, (S2) 0.9098, (S1) 0.9131, (PP) 0.9152, (R1) 0.9185, (R2) 0.9206, (R3) 0.9239.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9130 with stop loss at 0.9100 and take profit at 0.9210 are recommended.

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