Daily analysis of USDX for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: Again, the USDX has consolidated above the support level of 80.62 and now above the 200 SMA. This bullish momentum indicates much indecision in the market, because the USDX has not got out of the range between the levels of 81.50 and 80.11. However, it is very likely that the USDX will try to climb to the resistance level of 81.50. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H4 chart: The USDX is forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 80.99 and above the 200 SMA. If the USDX manages to break the resistance level of 81.19, it is expected to rise to the level of 81.29. Furthermore, if the USDX achieves in break the support level of 80.99, it is expected to fall to the level of 80.83. The MACD indicator is still in positive territory.

H1 chart: The USDX formed two fractals near the resistance level of 81.09. This level is quite important since the point of control is located there. However, if the USDX manages to break that resistance level, it's expected to rise to the level of 81.40. Furthermore, if the USDX achieves in break the support level of 80.93, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.73. The MACD indicator is in extreme overbought zone and entering negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 81.98, take profit is at 81.40, and stop loss is at 80.77.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD had a drop below the level of 1.6540 and reached to touch the support level of 1.6447. Now this pair is forming a bearish pattern above that level, but we should remember that at this level the pair usually finds strong support and makes a bullish rebound again to try to consolidate above the level of 1.6540. However, if the pair manages to break the support level at 1.6447, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6326. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.

H4 chart: The GBPUSD managed to fall to the level of 1.6441, where the 200 day moving average is located. There, the pair made a bullish rebound and formed a fractal. If it manages to break the resistance level of 1.6516, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6592. Moreover, if this pair does break the support at the level of 1.6464, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.6441. The MACD indicator is still in negative territory.

H1 chart: This pair is forming a higher low pattern below the 200 SMA and the point of control. If the pair manages to break the support level at 1.6464, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6419. Moreover, if this pair manages to break the resistance level of 1.6507, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6544. The MACD indicator is moving into positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6464, take profit is at 1.6419, and stop loss is at 1.6509.

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Elliott Wave analysis of AUD/USD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair continued moving downwards yesterday, so our primary count is still valid and we are still going with an idea that wave .c (coloured black) of the bigger wave iii (coloured blue) is developing at the moment. In the 1-hour chart, we can see that the AUD/USD pair has missed our invalidation point by few pips, and now the descending move from the 0.8826 level looks like FLAT pattern. Traders who are already short should remain short against the 0.8826 level and swing traders should wait next week to get a clear signal that the wave iii is over before opening long positions at the 0.8595 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave C should retrace 100% of wave A, we can define the potential targets by measuring wave A with take profit at 0.8595 (100% of wave A).

Alternate count: While price holds above the 0.8657 level, our alternate count is still valid, and we are looking at the wave i (couloured blue) as completed at 0.8658, pullback that started from 0.8709 as the part of the ii wave. 0.9090 area.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8645, (S2) 0.8677, (S1) 0.8735, (PP) 0.8767, (R1) 0.8825, (R2) 0.8857, (R3) 0.8915.

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short position at level of 0.8700 with stop loss at 0.8750 take profit at 0.8595 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for January 31, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards, corrective wave .c (coloured black) of the wave [y] (coloured green) has been developing. According to our last forecast, we expected this commodity currency to break below the lower trend line before opening the short position, but if the price breaks the last high at the 1.1198 level, we should go with an idea that wave [y] (coloured green) still has room to go higher and this can provide a short-term buying opportunity against the low at the 1.1478 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [y] should retrace 123.6% of wave [w], we can define the potential targets by measuring wave [w] with take profit at 1.1289 (123.6% of wave Y).

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.1092, (S2) 1.1121, (S1) 1.1140, (PP) 1.1169, (R1) 1.1188, (R2) 1.1217, (R3) 1.1236.

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.1200 with stop loss at 1.147 and take profit at 1.1289 are recommended.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. Liquidity was thin in Asia as financial markets in many countries in the region were shut for holiday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.07 versus 80.55 early Thursday) as advance estimate of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP matched forecasts with growth of 3.2% which reflects the Federal Reserve's confidence over the U.S. economy as it continue to scaled back its bond-buying stimulus program. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. treasury yields, reduced safe-haven appeal of yen since global risk sentiment improves (S&P rose 1.13% overnight) as emerging-market currencies are stabilizing. The Turkish lira, South African rand and Russian ruble were bounced back from earlier lows on Thursday, demand from the Japan importers and investment trusts and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But dollar sentiment is dented by bigger-than-expected 8.7% fall in U.S. December pending home sales index (versus minus 0.8% forecast). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan exporter sales and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.75 and the second target at 103.05. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.8. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.55. The pivot point is at 102.

Resistance levels:

102.75

103.05

103.55

Support levels:

101.8

101.55

101.25

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. It is undermined by the weak EUR/USD undertone and Japan exporter sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and improved investor risk tolerance. It is also affected by the positions adjustment of traders before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone; five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 167.25 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 166.6. The pivot point stands at 169.8. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, the price is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 170.9 and the second target at 171.65.

Resistance levels:

170.9

171.65

172.40

Support levels:

167.25

166.6

166

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment, reduced safe-appeal of franc as emerging-market currencies are stabilized and weaker-than-expected Switzerland January KOF economic barometer of 1.98 (versus 1.99 forecast). But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish at oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.906 and the second target at 0.908. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.898. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8955. The pivot point is at 0.9.

Resistance levels:

0.906

0.908

0.9105

Support levels:

0.898

0.8955

0.8925

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