#USDX analysis for January 3, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has made a small upward breakout. Short term resistance at 80.40 was broken yesterday. However the big sideways triangle needs to be corrected in order to capture the sideways move better. So prices still remain inside the big sideways triangle despite breaking above the short term resistance. Prices have now short term resistance at 80.90 and short term support at 79.95.

The price pattern from 81.50 is still corrective. We feel that the Dollar index has more chances of making a new upward move than new lows. The new shaped triangle as shown above, shows very well where the resistance levels are. Prices are now testing the upper boundaries. This is a good place to go short with 81 as stop. Bulls should wait for a breakout to go long again.

The daily chart of the Dollar index shows a promising breakout of the green downward sloping trend line resistance, however it needs to break above the blue MA at 80.70 and then above the red resistance area where it was previously rejected. Support that should hold for bulls is the 79.70 lows. Longer term target is 82.50. Concluding we remain neutral, however we favor long positions near 80 and short positions near 80.60 with 80.95 stop.

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Gold analysis for January 3, 2014 Trend News

In yesterday's analysis we noted that the bigger degree upward corrective move started. Prices opened with a gap up around the $1,225 price level. We mentioned yesterday that long positions should only be considered if the gap was closed. We were expecting a pull back down and then another move upwards. Prices moved exactly as expected. The gap was filled and prices are now making new higher highs as the short term trend changed up after breaking upwards the downward sloping trend channel.

The first short term target is $1,250 where the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $1,270 to $1,180. Prices are expected to continue their upward bounce. This upward move is part of a corrective pattern upwards.

The daily chart continues to support our longer term bearish view. Trend remains down as prices remain below the purple downward sloping resistance trendline. The slope of our MA is still negative and the pattern of lower lows and lower highs continues to apply. Concluding, we will look for selling opportunities near $1,270.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 3, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6659

R2: 1.6623

R1: 1.6577

Current Spot: 1.6537

S1: 1.6517

S2: 1.6470

S3: 1.6443

Technical Summary:

We have tested important support at 1.6569 and have even broken it slightly. The important question now is whether we are ready to challenge the upside again or the downside pressure is to strong. A break above minor resistance at 1.6577 will be the first indication that a bottom could be in place, but to confirm the bottom a break above 1.6659 is needed. If however, the downside pressure continues to force prices down, it will take a break below 1.6443 to invalidate our bullish preferred count and instead make our alternate count (see below) the preferred count.

Trading Recommendation:

Our idea of selling EUR again at 1.6785 was correct, but we place the stop a little too close and was stopped out at 1.6820. We will buy EUR here at 1.6537 and place our stop+revers at 1.6440 in case our preferred count proves to be wrong.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 3, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 143.63

R2: 143.25

R1: 142.81

Current Spot: 142.59

S1: 142.30

S2: 142.10

S3: 141.76

Technical Summary:

The powerful break below the base channel support line does support our count perfectly. Short-term we should see support at 142.30 protecting the downside for a red wave iv correction towards 143.26. The red wave iv correction will likely be a simple zig-zag correction as the red wave ii correction was a flat correction. Once red wave iv is done near 143.26, we will be looking for red wave v to go lower towards 140.98.

Trading Recommendation:

Take profits on the short EUR position from 145.10 here at 142.59 for a nice profit. Re-sell EUR at 143.15 with a stop at 144.50 and place take profit at 141.15.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 2, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 02/01/2014 11:00 CET

Today we will take more broader look at this pair on weekly, daily and intraday charts.

From the bigger perspective view the Elliott Wave count on the weekly chart still shows the possibility of another high that could be made as long as the DEMAND ZONE between the levels of 138.25 - 139.50 will provide the support. Only if this level is broken, the price might test the lower levels of the previous wave four area.

The count on daily chart with the alternate labeling of wave 4 black Triangle pattern looks unfinished as well. There are missing waves 4 and 5 purple of the overall impulsive wave progression.

The intraday range zone indicated couple of days ago has been maintained and as long as support zone holds the line, the price is about to be ready to make another high. Please notice that on H4 time frame chart the price stays within the blue uprising channel and currently is testing the Weekly Pivot level. The H1 chart clearly shows that only a breakout below the SUPPORT ZONE is bearish and, according to the EW labeling, a Triangle breakout to the upside is expected here.

Support/Resistance:

146.71 - WR1

145.68 - Swing High

145.14 - Intraday Resistance

144.34 - Intraday Support

144.26 - Weekly Pivot

143.52 - Invalidation Line

Trading recommendations:

As long as the support zone between the levels of 144.18 - 144.34 holds, long positions should be in play with SL below the level of 144.17 and TP at the level of 145.16 and 145.68.

Breakout below 144.17 is bearish.

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#USDX analysis for January 2, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index, despite gapping up today, has reached the important resistance level at 80.40 that we noted in our last analysis and was rejected right away. Prices are pulling back down to fill the gap. The current price action remains corrective inside the triangle boundaries. We remain neutral.

As can be seen in the chart above, prices got rejected in the upper triangle boudaries. We expect the lower level at 80.10-15 to be tested. Trend remains sideways. We prefer to stay neutral until we see a formation that will increase our probabilities of a profitable trade. Sometimes it is wise not to have any position at all and that is our strategy now.

Nothing new from the daily chart as well. Prices remain in a sideways corrective pattern. We have no buy or sell signal from the daily chart.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 2, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6818

R2: 1.6790

R1: 1.6765

Current Spot: 1.6733

S1: 1.6683

S2: 1.6621

S3: 1.6569

Technical Summary:

We are currently at strong support near 1.6683 and a break below here will indicate continuation towards the 1.6569 area. However, if this support protects the downside from a break above 1.6807, the green wave ii will be done and a new powerful rally towards 1.6996 and higher to 1.7239 will be in green wave iii. For now we just have to be patient and let time show us which scenario is the correct one.

Trading Recommendation:

Book your profit from the short position taken at 1.6785 here. Look to sell EUR again at 1.6785 with a stop at 1.6820.

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