Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 9, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6688

R2: 1.6601

R1: 1.6556

Current Spot: 1.6521

S1: 1.6470

S2: 1.6454

S3: 1.6443

Technical summary:

We did not expect an expanding flat correction to develop, but as long as important support at 1.6443 stays untouched, we will be looking for a break above 1.6556 and more importantly a break above 1.6750 confirming a new powerful rally higher. However, a break below 1.6443 will be a game changer and call for a new decline towards 1.5900 and likely even below.

In the short term we would like to see support in the 1.6500-1.6510 zone protecting the downside for a rally above 1.6556 indicating that we have seen the expanding flat correction end at 1.6470.

Trading recommendation:

To our suprise, our stop at 1.6520 was hit, but we will re-buy EUR here at 1.6521 with a stop + reverse at 1.6440.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 6, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 140.69

R2: 140.02

R1: 139.61

Current Spot: 139.22

S1: 139.12

S2: 138.46

S3: 138.16

Technical summary:

We did not get a resolution yesterday, as this cross traded in a narrow band between 138.46 and 139.56 all day. We are still looking for confirmation, that a major top is in place at 140.02, which a break below 138.46 will bring and call for a impulsive decline towards at least 137.82 for the short term and much lower towards at least 124.92 for the longer term. Or whether one more new high just above 140.02 is need, which a break above 139.61 will confirm.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short EUR from 139.50 with a close stop at 139.65. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell upon a brea below 138.46 with the same stop at 139.65.

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#USDX analysis for December 5, 2013 Trend News

Weakness signs from the short term view in the Dollar index continue to put pressure on bulls. As we noted last time, prices were stalling sideways. The 4 hour chart shows that support is broken and the triangle has been breached. We expect more weakness in the short term.

This does not pose an immediate threat for the longer term bullish view as the decline from 81.50 is clearly corrective. However, the correction could continue even lower towards 80.15. Short-term resistance that must be broken for bulls to have a chance is the 81 price level. As long as prices trade below that level, momentum will favor bears.

The daily chart has not changed anything according to the longer term view. The sideways sliding action is corrective but still inside a downward sloping channel. For a new upward move to start, bulls will need to push prices above the black channel resistance levels at 81-81.15. So for now, we remain neutral and enter long only if prices break above 81.15 with 83 as target.

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Gold analysis for December 5, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices bounced upwards as expected for the bigger degree wave 4. We noted yesterday that the wave formation was not a complete impulse down from 1,360 and so prices in order to complete 5 waves down needed to make an upward bounce for wave 4 of bigger degree and a new lower low for wave 5. Wave 4 happened yesterday as prices had risen towards 1,245$ where we expected wave 4 to move.

The preferable wave structure is shown above. Prices moved in the area of the previous 4th wave of lesser degree and touched the downward sloping trend line. Now prices are pulling back down after being rejected by the downward sloping trend line.

Longer term trend remains down, but for the short term we can see prices concluding their downward move from 1,360$. So bears should be extra carefull at these levels, specially if prices break above 1,258$. This should be the stop for short positions. Target for wave 5 to end is between 1,200-1,180$.

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EUR/JPY H1 analysis for December 5, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 05/12/2013 08:30 CET

The level of 140.00 capped the upside progression and now some downside movement has started but it is lacking momentum so far.

The alternate count here seems to fit better than the main one due to ovelaping price action. This is why the main count is abc green as for Triangle pattern. Anyway, there is still a possibility that this is first i-ii, (i)-(ii) wave progression and if the golden channel holds, the price is likely to impulsivley break the channel lower line to the downside.

On the other hand, the zone of 139.41 - 139.59 is Demand Breakthrough Zone and the price above this zone increases the probability of another high tracked by alternate count.

Support/Resistance:

140.00 - 4 Year high | Technical resistance |

139.59 - 139.41 - Demand breakthrough zone

139.28 - Intraday resistance

138.80 - Weekly pivot

138.41 - Intraday support

137.96 - 138.30 - MAIN SUPPORT ZONE

137.84 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

As long as golden trend line holds, short positions should be in play with entry as close as possible to 139.00 level and SL above 139.30. TP levels are TP1 @ 138.80 and TP2 @ 138.42.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 5, 2013 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 140.02

R2: 139.61

R1: 139.19

Current spot: 139.14

S1: 138.80

S2: 138.43

S3: 138.16

Technical summary:

The decline from 140.02 do have some impulsiveness to it, but it is not enough to confirm that we have an important top in place at 140.02 and that a major correction in wave II has taken over, for a decline to at least 124.92 in longer term.

To confirm the top, we need resistance at 139.61 to protect the upside for a clear impulsive break below 138.43 towards at least 137.85 for the short term. If resistance at 139.61 is broken, the decline from 140.02 has clearly only been in three waves, which means it has been corrective and that a new rally towards 140.02 and slightly higher should be seen.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short and lower you stop to 139.65. If you are not short yet, then sell a break below 138.78 with the same stop at 139.65.

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Gold analysis for December 4, 2013 Trend News

Gold has extended its 3rd wave down from 1,360$ and therefore there is more downside to be expected. Short term support is found at 1,200-1,190. Short term resistance is found at 1,240-50. We believe that the downward move from 1,360 is not over and we should expect wave 4 and 5 to unfold.

Wave 4 should reach near 1,230-40 and wave 5 should make a new lower low towards 1,200-1,190. The trend remains down as prices continue to make lower lows and lower highs. Breaking above 1,258$ will put this wave count into question.

The longer term trend as shown in the daily chart above remains down. Prices on a daily basis continue to trade within the blue downward sloping channel. The head and shoulders pattern was broken and we have 1,140$ as target. The 34 day MA has a negative slope. The lower lows and lower highs pattern confirms downtrend. All these are signs that trend is down. Only if prices break above 1,360$ we can say that the trend has changed in the intermediate term. For now we remain bearish with 1,140$ as target.

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