GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 27, 2013 Trend News

Strong bullish sentiment was found in the support zone around 1.4830, which pushed the pair to the upside reaching 1.5400 then 1.5700 where two prominent tops were established.

The uptrend line around 1.5430-1.5400 applied bullish pressure on the pair which was able to break trough 1.5720 which corresponds to August's highest level and the recently established top.

The market expressed obvious closure above 1.5575 which invalidated the H&S reversal pattern. This opened the way towards 1.5900, 1.6000 and 1.6170.

It is important to note that the market expressed bearish rejection off 1.6150 which resulted in an inverted hammer WEEKLY candlestick. That is why, bearish movement was expected to take place during this week provided that the bears remain defending the weekly high at 1.6150. However, lack of bearish momentum enhanced by the weakness of the USD prevented further decline.

Fibonacci expansion 100% is located at 1.6040 where the upper limit of the ongoing channel is located. Stablilization above this level opens the way towards the next one around 1.6200 where Fibonacci Expansion 127.2% is located.

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#USDX Analysis for September 27, 2013 Trend News

The price formation from the 80.05 low to yesterday's 80.62 is not impulsive. The sideways pattern makes us believe that this is just a pause to the larger downtrend. Prices got rejected once again at the 80.65 resistance and we believe that soon downward pressures will reappear.

However, if prices break above the red resistance trendline at 80.65-70, we will anticipate a move towards 81 with 80.28 as a stop. However, we believe that it is more possible to see a new low towards 80-79.90.

The daily chart confirms the fact that the resistance still holds and that prices cannot manage to break above it. When resistance is not broken, it is expected to see a downward move instead. So we remain bearish biased as long as prices stay below 80.65.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 27, 2013 Trend News

Gold made a strong pull back yesterday from 1,338 to 1,320 breaking the short-term support. The upward sloping trendline was broken but the important support at 1,300 still holds. Prices have risen as much as the 50% retracement and if we look at this having a short position, then we could say that the upward correction can be over and prices will be starting a new downward move.

Bulls, on the one hand, see the support at 1,300-1,310 holds, but bears, on the other hand, see that prices pulled back down from the 50% retracement. It is very possible to see another move upwards towards 1,340-45, but for now we remain neutral as the current price action and the price pattern does not provide us with a good risk/reward opportunity. Important levels for trading are 1,291 and 1,375. If prices break any of these two levels, then we should expect a big move. If prices move close to these levels, we should take action in favor of the support or resistance. For example, if prices move towards 1,300 and support holds, then we should take action in favor of the support by buying with 1,291 stop reverse. The opposite, if prices move towards 1,645-50, where the 61,8% and 76,4% Fibonacci resistance levels are, we should sell with 1,375 as stop reverse.

Concluding we remain neutral now, as the short-term support has failed, as prices could move lower towards 1,300 and give another buy opportunity. Until then we remain on the sidelines waiting for a good opportunity to come once a signal is given.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 27, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 134.71

R2: 134.00

R1: 133.58

Current Spot: 133.19

S1: 132.88

S2: 132.68

S3: 132.27

Technical Summary:

As we broke back below the neckline of the inverted S/H/S bottom, that was, of couse, invalidated and caused a deeper decline. However, the short-term count with the highest odds shows a possible new and even bigger inverted S/H/S bottom building (see the 15-minute chart below). To trigger this bottom, we need a break above 133.58 and more importantly a break above 134.00, which will call for a rally higher towards 135.32 on the way higher to 137.45.

The risk to the above scenario is a break below 132.88, that will shift the odds towards the expanding leading diagonal we mentioned a few days ago. If this count becomes the preferred count we are only in wave ii and should see a deeper correction towards 132.11 and, maybe, even lower towards 131.43, before wave ii is over.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 133.60 with stop at 132.85. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy upon a break above 133.58 with the same stop at 132.85.

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#USDX Analysis for September 26, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index formed a bearish flag that we noted in yesterday's analysis, which should make us anticipate a break down in prices. Once the flag was broken, prices fell towards 80.30-20 and are now making a back test bounce. I expect the downtrend to resume soon towards 80.

The short-term resistance that could change short-term trend if broken is at the 80.60 price level. The trend is expected to continue downwards and if the low at 80.28 is broken, we could witness a downward acceleration towards 80. The main component of the Dollar Index is EURUSD and from its point of view things are pretty bearish for the Dollar.

Concluding, the upward bounce at the start of today's session is most probably a back test. I anticipate lower prices as long as 80.60 is not broken upwards. Support is now found at 80.30 that if broken will push prices lower towards 80.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 26, 2013 Trend News

Gold, as expected by our analysis, has started a small trend reversal with an upward direction. Prices have been supported at 1,300-1,320 and are now making a try to challenge the highs. Prices are forming a pattern with higher highs and higher lows. This confirms the short-term trend change to upward. We expected this bounce to come from this price area as the support at 1,300-1,310 was very important. Currently, trading near 1,337, Gold is possible to continue much higher as long as the support at 1,315-22 holds.

The downward move from 1,375 to 1,305 has a Fibonacci retracement of 61,8% and 50% at 1,347 and 1,341. These two levels are important resistance levels, and if they are broken upwards, the chances to break above 1,375 towards 1,400 will rise. The initial 5 waves up from 1,291 to 1,375 made us expect a short-term bottom near 1,320-1,310 and that is exactly what happened. Our wave analysis anticipates now another leg up similar to the first one from 1,291 to 1,375.

The daily chart shows clearly that 1,300 is important support and the next leg up could target once again the broken blue trendline as it did in the first upward move at 1,375. Now the target is near 1,390-1,400 and rising. However, we must focus on the price structure from 1,305 and when we see 5 waves up completed, we should exit whether the target was hit or not. Breaking below 1,300-1,290 will push the precious metal towards 1,250-1,200. Concluding we remain long as long as prices trade above the short-term support at 1,320 and the longer-term support at 1,300. Target is at 1,370-1,400.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 26, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6542

R2: 1.6473

R1: 1.6407

Current Spot: 1.6392

S1: 1.6368

S2: 1.6329

S3: 1.6302

Technical summary:

We saw a attempt top break clearly above resistance at 1.6380, but it was not successful, instead we are seeing a consolidation just around this resistance, but it should only be a matter of time, before we will see the next rally higher. In the short term we will see a slight downside pressure as long as minor resistance at 1.6407 protects the upside, which could cause a move towards 1.6329, but from here or upon a break above 1.6407 the upside is open again for the next rally higher towards strong resistance at 1.6542.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 1.6275 and move your stop higher to 1.6255. If you are not long in EUR, buy near 1.6329 or upon a break above 1.6407 (one order done cancels the other), with the same stop at 1.6255.

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