#USDX analysis for August 13th, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index held its support levels as we expected yesterday and is rising towards our first target at 81.70. We were looking for a low around this area for a long time and it seems that another upward move has started in the Dollar Index. The short-term trend may change to upward one but the intermediate term is still downward.

The short-term resistance is found at 81.70 and then at 81.90 and 82.50 where the intermediate term trend is challenged. Support is found at 81.45 and 81.30. Breaking below 81.45 will push towards 81.30-15. The longer-term stop for bulls should be at 80.86.

It is time for the daily chart to test the blue downward sloping trendline at 81.80-90. Breaking above it will give a bullish momentum to the Index that will help it to challenge the intermediate trend at 82.50. We are cautiously bullish above 80.86. The first warning signal will come if the price breaks below 81.40 and 81.30.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for August 13th 2013 Trend News

Gold reached 1,343 resistance area yesterday and pulled back down towards 1,336. Prices are moving upwards in an impulsive pattern giving increased chances to the scenario that a new high above 1,349 will be seen. Trend remains up for the short term and resistance is found at 1,349 after 1,343. If resistance is broken our next target is 1,365-95. Short term support is found at 1,331, 1,320 and 1,314.

The blue upward sloping trend line if broken could push prices towards 1,310. This upward impulsive move could just be a part or the entire 5th wave from 1,180. Important support levels for bulls are the 1,250 and 1,280 price levels. If those two levels are broken, chances for a test of 1,180 will increase and also increase the probability of a new low.

The longer-term picture looks promising as the prices break above the longer-term downward sloping channel. Today, we post an alternative elliott wave count that if it holds then the bullish potential of Gold prices could reach 1,500 and above. The chart below shows the wave alternative count where it implies that the upward move from 1,180 to 1,349 was the entire wave I and the move to 1,270 was wave II. We then should now be in wave 1 of III.

So how do we trade Gold now. For now, we prefer to be neutral as entering long at this level is too risky. Stop for bulls could be the 1,331 for short term and 1,270 for longer term traders. The bearish stop is 1,350 or short positions could be opened once 1,331 support fails.

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USD/CAD H1 analysis for 13/08/2013 Trend News

General overview for 13/08/2013 07:00 CET:

The price has stucked in consolidation mode between levels of 1.0273 - 1.0315 and is still trading below the Weekly Pivot level.

Small real bodies of the candles suggest a lack of trading activity during the night.

So far there isn't much of an impulsive bullish price action yet, but none of the invalidation levels hasn't been violeted, so patience is required now.

Bigger time frame wave development is still in favour of bullish wave progression, so bias is to the upside.

All yesterday's level are still valid and general outlook hasn't changed much since then.

Support/Resistance:

1.0244 -Swing Low

1.0267 - 88%Fibo

1.0273 - Intraday Low

1.0315 - Intraday High

1.0327 - Weekly Pivot

1.0347 - Technical Resistance

1.0380 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Bias is still to the upside and long positions should be considered here with SL below the intraday low.

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USD/CHF - Mathematical analysis with Murray lines for August 13, 2013 Trend News

Daily Graphic


At the beginning of the week there were many significant changes for the USD/CHF pair and it closed just 14 pips of its opening price.The Swiss report retail sales had no major impact on the currency even though there was an increase of 2.3% in June beating the forecast of 1.9% expected. Meanwhile, we can expect USD/CHF to move within its range area between the line 4/8 and 3/8 Murrey lines today.

Graphic 4 Hours

In 4h chart possible continuation of the upward trend is limited by the line 4/8 (blue line) the same resistor becomes important because it acted as a support was not easily overcome in the days before in the downtrend. Hence also now be difficult for the couple above this level for a possible change of trend.

But on the contrary we believe that the pair tried to still make a new low at the moment the price is underneath the level of 3/8 (green line) and line breaks the short-term uptrend that has formed since the last minimum reached.

Graphic 1 hour

In 1 hour charts oscillator strength bars shows decrease approaching the zero point. On the other hand, the trend oscillator is emerging from oversold zone and the apex of the two trend lines for this time frame coincides with the line 7/8 (yellow line) a line of weak resistance. So we can expect that today the price move downward taking first objective 0.9216.

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Silver faces resistance now at 21.50/70 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal has raised through the resistance at 21.50. As it is depicted here, this area is re-enforced by fibonacci trend and counter trend convergence at 21.00/30 respectively. It is now recommended to initiate short positions with a stop above 22.50. A push through 22.50 at this juncture would be turning into bullish reversal for the long term and our trading strategy shall turn to buy on dips from there. Resistance is 22.50 while support is 19.25/30 at the moment. A more conservative trade strategy would be to remain flat for now and see how the price reacts ahead of 22.50.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive: Go short with a stop just above 22.50

Conservative: Remain flat for a while.

Good luck!

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Gold rallies through 1,340.00 area. 1,350.00 remains the key Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal rallied from 1,340.00 levels yesterday just to meet the backside of the rising trend line; as depicted here. This would act as resistance now and indicates that next bearish leg should resume soon. 1,350.00 levels remain key resistance here and a push through that would confirm further upside towards 1,370/80 and 1,400/05 levels soon enough. Aggressive trading strategy from here could be that of initiating short positions with risk above 1,350.00, while a conservative approach is to wait for 1,350.00 levels to give more clarity.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive: Initiate short positions now, stop at 1,351.50, target 1,244.00

Good luck!

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EURJPY rallies. Stay long for now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The currency pair is bouncing from the convergence level discussed on Friday. Yesterday, there was an engulfing bullish signal, indicating further uptrend. It is recommended to remain long from Friday and maintain trading strategy on buying at dips from here to upwards. Immediate support now is a 128.00 area, followed by 125.00 and lower; while intermediate resistance is at 132.00/50 marks. Fibonacci extensions are pointing towards 135.00 levels on the higher side. A push higher through 132.00 levels would instill further confidence in the under lying up swing.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, set stop below 128.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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