The US dollar index made a new short-term high, but I believe we should prepare for some dollar weakness over the coming days. Resistance is at the 99.80-100 area and I expect to see a rejection in this area.
The gold price has made an upward breakout. The short-term target is at $1,095. If it is surpassed, then we should expect a move towards $1,101 where the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $1,190 is found.
The gold price has turned the short-term trend into bullish as we have a clear break above the Ichimoku cloud. As long as the price is above the cloud we could see a even bounce towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The minimum upside target is at $1,095. Support is at $1,070.
The price is below the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart. The long-term trend remains bearish. But the fact that the stochastic is oversold and we are at the lower boundary of the wedge justifies a strong bounce towards the Ichimoku cloud if not the kijun-sen (yellow indicator). As I have been saying for the last month, as long the gold price trades around $1,070, this is not the market to go short.
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Overview:
Overview:
Intraday technical levels:
Date: 6/01/2016
Pair: AUD/USD
The NZD/CHF pair is clearly trending upwards since August 25, 2015 and the price is moving within the ascending channel.
Currently, the price is retesting the lower trend line of the channel and S1 support at the same time. The S1 support is 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level applied to the low of December 9 and the high of December 31. The price could still go slightly lower to test either 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci, but only a breakout of S3 could change the trend.
While S3 is holding, consider buying NZDCHF near the lower trend line of the channel, targeting either 0.6900 or 0.7000 psychological resistance levels. Stop loss should be placed below S3 (61.8% Fibs).
Support: 0.6710, 0.6660, 0.6615
Resistance: 0.9600, 0.7000
After a heavy downtrend, AUD/CHF found the bottom at the 0.7045 level and slowly started to move higher. The first resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci was rejected several times, but eventually the price broke above and found the resistance at 50% Fibs.
The most recent wave down stopped right at the previous level of resistance (S1) where it found a support that has been rejected on January 4. Currently, the price is retesting this level of support and the lower trend line of the ascending channel. If the price holds the current support, it could be the starting point of another wave up to retest R2.
Consider buying AUD/CHF if the daily close is above the ascending channel targeting the R2 (0.73) area. Stop loss could be placed just below the strong psychological support at 0.7000.
Support: 0.7160
Resistance: 0.7240, 0.7300, 0.7350
Global macro overview for 06/01/2016:
A bunch of PMI Services data from the main eurozone countries has been released this morning and in general the data beat the market expectations. The overall EU PMI composite index was better than expected (54.0 points vs. 54.0 points forecasted) and still shows a positive tendency to rise above the 50-point level. There are still no signs of fast acceleration on the horizon, but for the moment there are convincing clues that a moderate expansion is still a viable forecast. The eurozone is gradually repairing the damage that lingers from the financial crisis.
The EUR/USD pair is trading right on the 61%Fibo support at the level of 1.0722. The next support is seen at the level of 1.0691 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 1.0795.
