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Wednesday, 6 January 2016

Global macro overview for 06/01/2016 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 06/01/2016:

A bunch of PMI Services data from the main eurozone countries has been released this morning and in general the data beat the market expectations. The overall EU PMI composite index was better than expected (54.0 points vs. 54.0 points forecasted) and still shows a positive tendency to rise above the 50-point level. There are still no signs of fast acceleration on the horizon, but for the moment there are convincing clues that a moderate expansion is still a viable forecast. The eurozone is gradually repairing the damage that lingers from the financial crisis.

The EUR/USD pair is trading right on the 61%Fibo support at the level of 1.0722. The next support is seen at the level of 1.0691 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 1.0795.

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Global macro overview for 06/01/2016 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 06/01/2016:

The FOMC meeting minutes will be released today at 07:00 GMT and they might unveil policy makers' insight into historic decision regarding interest rate hike. Almost a month ago, the US Federal Reserve ended a seven-year stretch of near zero rates with the first interest rate hike since 2008. The hike was 25bp and it was considered small. The current question market participants are asking is whether the next hikes will be gradual (like the first one) or more aggressive. This is a rather important matter because Fed Chair Yellen only clarified during her press conference in December that gradual does not mean mechanical and the Fed policy decisions are still data-dependent. In that case, any hawkish statements from the committee will likely boost the USD, and more dovish comments could deflate the USD and dampen more rate hike expectations in 2016.

The US Dollar index has broken above the technical resistance at the level of 99.30 (now support) and it is trying to test another technical resistance at the level of 99.98.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 6, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Wave summary:

We have seen a failed test to break above 1.6220, but we think the next test to break above this minor resistance will be successful. A clear break above 1.6220 will open up the upside for a continuation higher towards 1.6446 and 1.6749 as the next upside targets.

In the short term, we expect minor support at 1.6059 to be able to protect the downside for the anticipated break above 1.6220 for a continuation higher to 1.6446.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5810 and will keep our stop at 1.5925 for now. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.6220 with your stop placed at 1.6050.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 6, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Wave summary:

We have seen the expected downside acceleration as wave (iii) lowered towards the expected target near 116.13. We were looking for a minor sideways consolidation near minor support at 128.03, but there was no support to be found here and it is typical behavior of wave (iii). Corrections during a third wave tend to be small or even sub-normal. When this occurs, I stay focused on longer-term targets and try not to get caught in possible minor targets.

In the short term, we have seen the 200% target of red wave (i) tested at 127.18, which could cause a bounce back to 128.04, but the downtrend looks strong and could easily take out this support too for a decline closer to 125.45 as the next minor downside target.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 130.95 and will move our stop lower to 129.50. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 128.00 and use the same stop at 129.50.

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 6, 2016 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 06/01/2016:

An impulsive wave progression in the last wave c might be about to terminate as the cycle is looking mature and the bullish divergence supports the view. Nevertheless, the price must break out higher above the level of 128.67 to confirm this point of view.

Support/ Resistance :

127.32 - Intraday Support

127.98 - WR3

128.67 - Intraday Resistance

129.31- WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should watch this pair closely and consider buying on the dips in this market with tight SL as the downside trend might reverse any time soon.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 6, 2016 . Thanks for your support.

Daily analysis of major pairs for January 6, 2016 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: There is a vivid bearish signal for this currency trading instrument as bears push the price lower and lower. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the Williams' % Range period 20 is not far from the oversold region. Potential targets for this week remain at 1.0700 and 1.0650.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is in an uptrend; and according to the current price action, it would be profitable to buy pullbacks in the market. The upward journey would go on, but there would be occasional muscles flexing from bears, which would cause occasional bearish corrections. The time during these corrections would be ideal for long trades if a bullish candle forms next.

GBP/USD: This pair consolidated on Tuesday within a downtrend. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it is much more likely that the bearish movement would continue. The accumulation territory at 1.4650 has been tested and it could be tested again. Another target for bears is the accumulation territory at 1.4600.

USD/JPY: This pair continues experiencing some weakness, just like most pairs containing the yen experienced weakness at the same time. The bias on the pair is bearish, and thus, further weakness is expected in the market, which might make the price test the demand level at 118.50.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair went down smoothly on Tuesday, almost testing the demand zone at 127.50. The price has moved downwards by 300 pips this week before the current upwards bounce, which is shallow. It is expected that the downward movement would resume into the favor of the bears.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 6, 2016 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 06/01/2016:

As anticipated yesterday, an impulsive wave progression to the upside has been broken above the 1.4000 level. Moreover, the overall cycle has not been completed yet as there are missing internal waves to the upside. The first projected target is at the level of 1.4058.

Support/Resistance :

1.4058 - WR3

1.4018 - Intraday Support

1.4000 - Round Number Support

1.3932 - WR2

1.3872 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Buy orders opened on Monday should be ready for closure as the projected TP has been set at the level of 1.0458.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 6, 2016 . Thanks for your support.