EUR/NZD : analysis for December 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the level of 1.6065. We can observe low liquidity and weak price action. In the daily time frame, I found a weak supply bar and a strong head-and-shoulders confirmed formation (a broken neckline). According to the H1 time frame, the price is trading below 50, 100, 200 SMA. I found 2 climatic actions in a background and a strong up-thrust bar in an ultra high volume (sign of weakness). Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since lower prices are expected. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of 1.6070 (broken), Fibonacci expansion 100% is at the level of 1.5840, and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% is seen at the level of 1.5470.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6075

R2: 1.6100

R3: 1.6140

Support levels:

S1: 1.6000

S2: 1.5975

S3: 1.5940

Trading recommendations : Buying EUR/NZD looks very risky at this stage since the price confirmed the head-and-shoulders formation. Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold : analysis for December 28 , 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,070.62. In the daily time frame, I found a weakly supply bar, which is a sign that selling looks risky. An intraday trend is neutral. In the 30M-time frame, we can observe successful re-testing of our channel and a breakout of a bullish flag, which made a good buy point at the level of $1,072.00.The first resistance is seen at the level of $1,080.00 and second at $1,088.70. The key price action resistance is seen around the level of $1,100.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,076.20

R2: 1,076.50

R3: 1,077.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,075.15

S2: 1,074.80

S3: 1,074.25

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunites, selling looks risky.

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Global macro overview for 28/12/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 28/12/2015:

The Japanese inflation data released overnight showed the core consumer prices climbed for the first time in five months in November. Japan's industrial production however decreased for the first time in three months in November, as exports declined more than analysts had expected. The industrial output was reported at the level of -1.0% vs. -0.4% expected, but it was still 1.6% higher than a year before. Amid the latest reports we can suspect that BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda may start additional stimulus measures as early as the next month.

The USD/JPY pair is just bouncing off the important technical support at the level of 120.35. The next resistance is seen at the level of 121.37.

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Global macro overview for 28/12/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 28/12/2015:

The last week's data from the US job market was slightly better than analysts had expected as the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits declined 5,000 people to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 in the week ended December 19. This low level of unemployed US citizens was last seen in 1973, so it is a very good sign that the US labor market continues to strengthen. Please remember that the initial claims number below 300 000 is associated with strong labor market conditions and this kind of situation helps to boost consumer spending, This might be very important amid current economic conditions as the US is now facing headwinds from the strong US dollar and slowing global economic growth.

The US dollar index has been rejected after hitting 61% Fibo level of the previous sell-off range. Currently, it is trading slightly below 21 and 50 periods moving average, just above the technical support at the level of 97.18.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 28/12/2015 08:40 CET

The wave c purple in the complex corrective structure hasn't been completed yet and the new lower low is still being expected in this pair. Nevertheless, any breakout higher above the intraday resistance at the level of 132.77 will be the first clue that wave XX brown might not been completed as well. Moreover, any breakout above the level of 133.76 will invalidate the idea of a complex corrective cycle, so this level is worth keeping an eye on.

Support/Resistance:

129.87 - WS3

130.68 - WS2

131.02 - Technical Support

131.14 - WS1

131.48 - Intraday Support

131.96 - Weekly Pivot

132.44 - WR1

132.77 - Intraday Resistance

133.26 - WR2

133.74 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing sell orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 132.77 and TP at the level of 131.48 and below.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 28/12/2015 08:20 CET

AAs anticipated last week, wave 4 black is now developing in a corrective mode in the market. The first three waves look completed, but there is still a chance the whole structure will evolve into more complex and time-consuming pattern like triangle or complex corrective structure.

Support/Resistance:

1.4041 - WR2

1.4000 - Intraday Resistance

1.3927 - WR1

1.3870 - Weekly Pivot

1.3815 - Intraday Support

1.3748 - WS1

1.3693 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing buy orders from current market levels with SL below the level of 1.3815 and TP at the level of 1.3870.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 28, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Wave summary:

Our preferred count still shows that wave ii is likely to be terminated at 1.5930 and that wave iii higher is in its early beginning. However, we need a breakout above minor resistance at 1.6151 to indicate that wave iii is unfolding, while a breakout above resistance at 1.6446 is needed to confirm that wave iii higher towards 1.7064 is developing.

There is a risk of a break below 1.5930 that indicates that wave ii is over and a little more downside will be needed. Wave ii is not allowed to break below the beginning of wave i at 1.5784, so a breakout below here will invalidate the bullish rally we are looking for.

Trading recommendation:

We will only buy EUR upon a breakout above 1.6151 and our stop will be placed at 1.5925.

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