Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 23 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Wave summary:

There is no change in view. We still think that wave ii ended at 1.5930 and wave iii higher is in its infinity. That said, we still need a break above minor resistance at 1.6164 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6246 confirming the bottom for a rally much higher.

In the short term, it will take an unexpected break below the 1.5930 low to delay the expected impulsive rally higher, but only a break below the wave 2 low at 1.5784 to invalidate the bullish outlook.

Trading recommendation:

We will only buy a break above 1.6167 with our stop placed at 1.5935.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 23 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Wave summary:

We have most likely seen wave [i] of c end at 132.78 and is currently in the later part of wave [ii], which is expected to terminate near 132.10 for the next impulsive rally closer to 134.91 in wave [iii] before the next consolidation is expected in wave [iv].

As we are looking for a second wave correction, we will have to remember that they often become very deep and correct most of the first wave, so even if we see a break below 132.10 that doesn't alter our expectation of a continuation higher towards 135.34

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 131.95 and will lift our stop to break-even.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 23, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. The first downside target at 120.60 is in sight. Currently, the pair is being supported by the rising 20-period moving average, which has crossed above the 50-period one, while the relative strength index stands firmly above the neutrality level of 50. With such a bearish intraday outlook, once breaking below 121.50, the pair is expected to rise further to 120.60 (a price base seen on December 14 and 15).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.60. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 120.15. The pivot point stands at 121.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.75 and the second target at 122.15.

Resistance levels: 121.75 122.15 122.55

Support levels: 120.60 120.15 119.65

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 23, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. After the recent downside breakout of 0.9915, the USD/CHF pair remains under pressure and seems likely to post a further decline. The previous key support is now playing a resistance role, and should limit any upside room. Furthermore, the relative strength index is still below its neutrality area at 50. In conclusion, as long as the resistance at 0.9915 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.9855 remains high.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9855. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9830. The pivot point stands at 0.9915. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9940 and the second target at 0.9970.

Resistance levels: 0.9940 0.9970 0.9990

Support levels: 0.9855 0.9830 0.9795

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 23, 2015 Market Analysis Review

NZD/CAD pair is pulling back but is standing above its key support at 0.6765. Meanwhile the relative strength index lacks strong downward momentum. Further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 0.6865 at first. A break above this level would call for further advance toward 0.69.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, it is recommended to open long positions with the first target at 0.6865 and the second target at 0.69. In the alternative scenario, it is recommended to open short positions with the first target at 0.6740, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6710. The pivot point is at 0.6765.

Resistance levels: 0.6865, 0.69, 0.6950

Support levels: 0.6740, 0.6710, 0.6660

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 23 , 2015 Market Analysis Review

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. A strong resistance area around 180.10 maintains the selling pressure. Besides, the process of lower highs and lows remains intact. At the current stage, the pair is more likely to test its nearest support at 179. The risk is a slide below this level, which would trigger a bearish acceleration toward 178.50.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 179.00. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 178.50. The pivot point stands at 180.10. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 180.60 and the second target at 181.20.

Resistance levels: 180.60 181.20 182.10

Support levels: 179 178.50 178

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 23, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair rose by 120 pips this week, while the outlook for the market remains bright. The price is now above the support line of 1.0900, going towards the resistance lines of 1.1000 and 1.1050. These are targets for the bulls, which might be attained, in case the bullish journey continues.

USD/CHF: By all indication, at present, the best thing to do is to go short. The CHF is currently strong whereas the EUR is influenced by energy. In addition, the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, as the Williams' Percentage Range is in the oversold region. Thus, the price can go below the support level of 0.9850, as the market weakenes further.

GBP/USD: This market moved downwards on Tuesday, following a short-term consolidation of the price in the context of a downtrend. On the chart, the Bearish Confirmation Pattern is very strong, and it is more likely that the price could move further downwards from here. Most other pairs, including the GBP, are also weak. For example, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD.

USD/JPY: After the bearish signal we got last week, the USD/JPY pair is still showing a possibility of going further downwards. The demand level of 120.50 is the next possible target for the bears, which might be reached today or tomorrow. On the other hand, the supply level of 122.00 might check any possible rallies along the way.

EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument moved slightly upwards on Tuesday. The price is currently trying to bounce upwards while the outlook remains bearish (but the bearish trend is threatened). The bearish outlook will not be rendered useless as long as the price does not go above the supply zone of 133.50.

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