Gold analysis for November 04 , 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of $1,114.28. The intraday and short-term trends are downward as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud on the daily, H4 and H1 charts. In the daily time frame, we can observe a strong supply bar in a high volume volume. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe strong and healthy supply bars, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Watch for selling opportunities. Major daily support and our first profit zone is at the price of $1,104.00. Second major support is around the price of $1,083.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,128.90

R2: 1,133.60

R3: 1,141.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,113.20

S2: 1,108.20

S3: 1,100.50

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The AUD/USD pair is moving sideways this week. Thus, according to prior events, the price of the AUD/USD pair has still been moving between the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels at the level of 0.7154 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at the 0.8503 level. Furthermore, the price opened below the ratio of 76.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (0.7209). Besides, the resistance is set at the 0.7209 level. Moreover, the EMA (100) has to cross the support of 0.7154. It would be a strong confirmation for the bearish market in the long term. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 0.7154 with the first target of 0.7205 and resume to 0.7247. The double top is going to set at the price of 0.7250. However, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7154, the market will lead to further decline to 0.7094 today or tomorrow in order to indicate a correctional movement at this level. Meanwhile, the daily chart represents a strong support at 0.7067.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: On the EUR/USD chart, there is still a bearish confirmation pattern. It means that the market is expected to continue going further and further downwards, especially as long as the US dollar is strong, which is the outlook for the greenback in November 2015. Only exponential weakness in the greenback can reverse the trend.

USD/CHF: This pair remains bullish, now attempting to recover the slight loss it saw last week. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the Williams' Range period 20 has just sauntered into the overbought region. This shows an ongoing buying pressure in the market, which may help the price move further upwards.

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD made a bullish attempt on Tuesday, but bears pushed the price back below the distribution territory to 1.5450. There is still a bullish signal in the market, which would be sensible as long as the accumulation territory at 1.5300 is not breached to the downside.

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY is making some bullish effort, though there has not been anything significant this week yet. The price is now above the demand level at 121.00, looking to reach the supply level at 121.50. The ultimate target for this week is located at the supply level of 122.00.

EUR/JPY: This cross made a faint bullish effort on Tuesday in the context of a downtrend. The cross would be weak as long as the EUR is weak. For this cross to rally, the yen would need to be weaker than the euro, which is not true at the moment.

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Global macro overview for 04/11/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 04/11/2015:

The Markit Eurozone PMI Services data were released this morning from Spain, France, Italy, and Germany. The Final Eurozone Composite Output Index was at the level of 53.9 (Flash 54.0, September 53.6) and Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index was at the level of 54.1 (Flash 54.2, September 53.7). This mild grow acceleration at the beginning of the fourth quarter is largely due to the twenty-eighth successive month of expansion in services and the growth rate remains stable at 0.4%. Amid the amount of stimulus that its currently in play (ECB QE program), the growth rate is still frustratingly weak and the ECB might have another reason to expand its QE program soon.

The EUR/USD pair is trading near the lows of the range and the next support is seen at the level of 1.0896.

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USDX technical analysis for November 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US dollar index held support yesterday and has staged an upward move towards recent highs. The trend is bullish and the weak pullback confirms how strong the bullish trend is. New highs before the year end are on the cards.

Blue horizontal line - support

The US dollar index is trading above the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart and it has also broken above the kijun-sen. It means that we should expect new highs above 97.90 soon. Support is critical at 96.60. If it is broken, we should expect a push lower towards 95.50.

Red line - weekly resistance

Green line - weekly support

The weekly candle has once again been broken above the weekly resistance. We must be patient and see where this week's candle closes. The chances are in favor of the bullish scenario and the continuation of this upward move over the coming weeks to new highs. Weekly support is at 95.

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Gold technical analysis for November 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price has collapsed yesterday towards my lower target of $1,120 and has hit the long-term support trend line from $1,080. The pause of the decline at that area is a good sign. It implies that the support at $1,120 is respected and important. A bounce of higher highs and higher lows is now what we are looking out for.

Blue line - long-term support trend line

Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Stochastic is oversold on the 4-hour chart and price has reached the 78.6% retracement and the upward sloping trend line support from $1,080. We are now looking for entry levels for long positions. We want to see a short-term pattern of higher highs and higher lows in order to establish a stop level. Traders eager to buy now should use $1,100 as stop.

Let us also not forget the bigger picture. Gold price is at the long-term 50% Fibonacci retracement. However weekly chart remains below the cloud. A long-term reversal will be confirmed when price breaks above the cloud.

Blue line - trend line support

Gold price needs to hold above the weekly trend line support. If it breaks below it in a weekly close, then we should expect new lows to come near $1,080-60. Overall, this is an area where I prefer to look out for buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 04/11/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 04/11/2015:

Crude oil inventories data are scheduled for release at 3:30pm today. The market expects the inventory levels at 2664k vs. 3.376k last week. From macroeconomic point of view, crude oil prices are still under pressure due to global supply problems and weak demand from China. Moreover, the OPEC members refused to cut down the production levels and that is making the problem even worse. At the top of the things the recent hawkish FED statement has made the crude oil surge 6% as the clues for the possible December rate hike had been revealed.

The current technical picture looks somehow slightly bearish as the price has touched the 61%Fibo at the level of 47.73. and now is testing this level again. The next support is seen at the level of 47.49 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 48.33.

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