Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 3, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The price of the USD/CHF pair is still moving between 0.9851 and 0.9956. The key level has been set at the spot of 0.9851 since yesterday. The level of 0.9851 is representing the 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels and the price has been set above the strong support of 0.9851. These levels are coinciding with 78.6% and 100% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the same chart. The pair has already formed a strong resistance at this level of 0.9956 and it is now approaching it in order for testing. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair will receive downside momentum, which is rather convincing. The structure of the fall is not corrective. It will be a good sign to sell below 0.9956 with a first target of 0.9900 and it will call for a downtrend in order to continue with bearish movements towards 0.9856 and then towards 0.9825. Moreover, the price at 0.9825 will possibly form a strong support. So, there will be a saturation around 0.9825 to rebound the pair for that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market in the long term.

Forecast:

• As a result, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.9825 with the first target of 0.9880 and continue towards the level of 0.9950.

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Gold analysis for November 03, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of $1,131.09. The intraday and short-term trends are downward. In the daily time frame, we can observe a strong supply bar in an average volume. In the H1 time frame, in the background we can observe a successful rejection from our strong resistance level at the price of $1,162.00. Besides, according to the H4 time frame, we can observe weak demand bars around the price of $1,137.50, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Watch for selling opportunities. Major daily support is at the price of $1,104.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,138.00

R2: 1,139.50

R3: 1,141.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,133.40

S2: 1,131.95

S3: 1,129.50

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 03/11/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 03/11/2015:

It was unveiled today that the Spanish unemployment change made up 82.3K, which is larger than expected figure of 70.3K and much larger than the last month print of 26.1K. Moreover, yesterday's PMI Manufacturing data revealed that the eurozone's fourth-largest economy is slowing down as the Markit PMI number of 51.3 reflected the weakest rise in output for nearly two years. It means that for the third month in a row Spain's unemployment is increasing despite the jobless rate being relatively stable at the level of 22%. Nevertheless, the increasing number of the unemployed people in Spain is raising a question whether the recent slight pick-up in economic expansion was just a one-off rebound that will fade soon.

The EUR/USD pair has broken below the short-term trend line after the news release and now is trading at the level of 1.0997. The next support is seen at the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.0963.

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USDX technical analysis for November 3, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US dollar index remains in a corrective phase. The price remains above the Ichimoku cloud, but we could see a pullback towards the 38% retracement this week. The longer-term trend remains bullish and there are signs that we are about to exit the sideways move we are in for the last few months.

Red line - Resistance TL

The US dollar index is below the kijun-sen and above the Ichimoku cloud. The best strategy is to remain neutral for now and if the price pulls back, we will be interested to open long positions with 93.80 stop and new highs as the target. Support at 95.40 is very important and it would be ideal to see a pullback to that area.

Red line - weekly resistance

Green line - weekly resistance

The weekly chart shows how bulls managed to break above the downward sloping red trend-line resistance but could not hold on to it. The price got rejected and we are probably going to make a pullback towards the weekly kijun-sen at 95.50 before resuming the uptrend. Eventually, I expect the US dollar index to start a new upward move that will bring the index back above 101-102.

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Gold technical analysis for November 3, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The gold price has reached our buy interest area of $1,140-20 that I have been talking about for the last weeks. The gold price is in a short-term bearish trend approaching important support levels. It is not the time to go short or sell gold.

Blue line - long-term support TL

The gold price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud. The price is trading around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We could see a push even lower towards $1,120 where the 78.6% Fibonacci is found, but it is not the time to sell.

The weekly chart remains long-term bearish. This will change only if the price breaks above $1,250. The weekly candle is below the tenkan-sen which is a bearish sign. However, support is found at $1,120 and I prefer to be neutral as long as we are above that level. I will be waiting for bullish reversal signs as this is what I expect.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 03, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. Overnight, US stocks advanced, lifted by energy and healthcare stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 17,828, back in the positive territory since the start of the year. The S&P 500 gained 1.2% to 2,104, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.5% to 5,127. Nymex crude oil settled down 1.0% at $46.14 a barrel, gold fell 0.8% to $1,133 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.185% from 2.151% in the previous session. Meanwhile, the US dollar held its ground against most other major currencies. USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 120.75, while AUD/USD was also up 0.1% to 0.7143. Australia's central bank will announce its interest rate decision later on Tuesday (expected to hold at 2.00%). The pair has just broke above the previous key support and remains on the downside. It is currently supported by the rising 20-period intraday moving average (MA), which is above the 50-period one. And the intraday relative strength index (RSI) is well directed above the neutrality level at 50. The intraday outlook has turned bearish. As long as 120.90 holds as the key resistance, the pair is expected to decline to the first downside target at 120.15 (around the high of October 29) and the second one at 119.90 .

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.15. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 119.90. The pivot point stands at 120.90. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.20 and the second target at 121.50.

Resistance levels:121.20 121.50 121.90

Support levels: 120.15 119.90 119.45

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Global macro overview for 03/11/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 03/11/2015:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the interest rates at its record low of 2% for sixth consecutive month. RBA had cut the interest rate last time in May by 25bp, following an earlier cut in February. They decided to cut the rates to the record low levels in February mainly due to the sluggish Australian economy, weak inflation figures, and general global demand decrease (mainly from China). Currently, there is another subject of concern for RBA: the growing bubble on the housing market in Australia.

The AUD/USD pair has broken above the resistance at the level of 0.7181 and now is trading inside the golden channel. The next resistance is seen at the level of 0.7296.

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