Global macro overview for 13/10/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 13/10/2015:

Today's report on the UK consumer price index has taken the market by surprise. The inflation had been expected to stay at the same level of 0.2% m/m, but unveiled data on a -0.1% m/m fall in onsumer prices changed the overall picture dramatically. This is the first in 5 months negative reading for the index, but the majority of other inflation indicators came out in line with expectations. Nevertheless, despite the strong performance of the UK economy, the recent wage growth, and negative inflation data, any rate hikes by BoE is still out of the table.

The technical picture of GBP/USD pair looks weak as the 50%Fibo level had been rejected. The next support is seen at the level of 1.5230.

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USDX technical analysis for October 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US dollar index tried to make a bounce off the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement but came back down to reach a new lower low. A trend remains bearish after breaking below the triangle pattern, which we mentioned in our previous analysis.

Green line - support (broken)

Red line - resistance

The US dollar index is trading below the Ichimoku cloud and short-term resistance levels by the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). The price is moving towards lower lows and lower highs confirming the bearish trend. Resistance is now seen at 94.90. If it gets broken, we should expect a bounce towards 95.60.

Red line - weekly resistance

Green line - weekly support

The US dollar index weekly candle is entering the zone of the weekly Ichimoku cloud. This is not a good sign for the longer-term trend. Important support is found at 92, and important resistance is seen at 97. The bullish flag pattern remains intact. Longer-term traders should remain neutral and wait for a breakout before opening new position.

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Gold technical analysis for October 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price is making a pullback after the recent rally to $1,169. This pullback is considered to be normal to back test the area of $1,150. Bulls have nothing to worry about. A trend remains bullish, and we still expect the price to reach $1,200.

Red line - resistance TL (broken)

The price is above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart and above the broken trend-line resistance. It is also above the kijun-sen support (yellow indicator) although we have touched it earlier today. The trend remains bullish in the short term. Next support is found at $1,140.

Black lines - triangle pattern

Gold price remains above and the triangle pattern trading around the weekly kijun-sen. I believe the week will close above this level. Over the next couple of weeks gold price is likely to move towards $1,200. I would remain bullish.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: This pair traded sideways on Monday, in the context of an uptrend. The pair is very likely to (plus certain other EUR pairs) rally this week, and therefore, further northwards journey is anticipated. The first bullish target is seen at the resistance level of 1.1450.

USD/CHF: There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USD/CHF chart. Therefore any rallies that are seen here could be interpreted as short-selling opportunities. The support level of 0.9600 was tested yesterday, but was not breached to the downside. The support level could be breached this week as the price targets another support level at 0.9550.

GBP/USD: The cable is trying to make further bullish efforts. The price is now moving above the accumulation territory at 1.5350, going towards the distribution territory of 1.5400. Distribution territories of 1.5500 and 1.5550 act as ultimate targets this week, since the outlook for GBP pairs is bullish.

USD/JPY: This market remains in an equilibrium phase, trapping below the supply level of 121.00. It failed to move below the demand level of 119.00. There must be a journey above the supply level or below the demand level before it can be said that the equilibrium phase is over (which is something that will happen this week or next week).

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair was corrected lower on Monday, though the bullish outlook is valid. The validity of the bullish outlook will hold as long as the demand zone at 135.00 is not broken to the downside. The demand zone, including the one at 135.50, could act as barriers to bearish attempts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 13/10/2015 09:10 CET

The count has been little changed to incorporate the recent wave development in corrective wave iv blue. Instead of anticipated triangle pattern, the corrective cycle looks more like an abc purple irregular flat correction. Currently, the market is trying to rally upward in the last sup-wave of the wave (iii) green. The projected target is seen in the area of 137.20.

Support/Resistnace:

135.70 - Invalidation Level

135.98 - Intraday Support

136.11 - Weekly Pivot

136.95 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Yesterday's buy orders should be still in play and the SL should be moved higher to the level of 135.98. The projected target for TP is at the level of 137.20 (minimum target).

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 13, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 13/10/2015 09:00 CET

As we had anticipated, the market rebounded higher after completing the wave (c) blue and performing the overall corrective structure in wave 4 purple. Currently, the market is trading below the key resistance at 1.3070/ Any breakout higher will open the road to the level of 1.3130.

Support/Resistance:

1.2900 - Technical Support

1.2990 - Intraday Support

1.2996 - Weekly Pivot

1.3070 - Intraday Resistance

1.3092 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Yesterday's buy orders should be still in play. The Sl should be moved higher to the level of 1.3000. The projected TP from yesterday was missed by 8 pips so far.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 13 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

Wave iv has become a flat correction, which alternates nicely with wave ii that was a simple zig-zag correction. Once wave iv is over, we are still looking for one final dip closer to the downside target at 1.6781 where we expect a bottom to be found for a nice strong rally back to at least 1.8020. If a more complex correction is about to unfold in the bigger picture, resistance at 1.8020 is unlikely to be broken. However, for now we should stay focused towards the downside test of 1.6780 as long as resistance at 1.7125 protects the upside.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.6785 or upon a break above 1.7125 (one order done cancels the other) stop will be placed at 1.6685.

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