Gold technical analysis for October 6, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold is trading sideways in what seems to be a bullish flag. I expect the gold price to move higher and break short- and medium-term resistances and finally make a move towards $1,200. The bigger triangle pattern remains valid and so we wait for a breakout.

Green line - triangle pattern

The gold price has marginally reached the 38% retracement and is testing again the resistance at $1,140-42. Breaking above it will turn me bullish targeting $1,200. The price is above the cloud support and is testing the upper triangle boundary.

Black lines - triangle

The gold price remains above the tenkan-sen support and is still inside the triangle. A break above $1,150 and a weekly close above it will open the way towards the cloud resistance at $1,200. I remain bullish as long as this week closes are above the tenkan-sen.

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Global macro overview for 06/10/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 06/10/2015:

After the latest way worse-than-expected NFP job data published on Friday, the Fed's interest rate hike was moved from December 2015 to as early as March 1016. This is the main reason behind the longest winning streak in SP500 this year (5 days in a row).

From the technical point of view, the SPY index is still trading below the important golden trend line and below the green bullish zone as well. Only a valid breakout above the level of 204.07 will be considered a bullish sign.

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Global macro overview for 06/10/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 06/10/2015:

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the interest rate at the same level this month (2%) in line with overall market consensus. Nevertheless, a sluggish outlook for the global economy and unstable financial markets conditions do not help much the Australian economy. The RBA inflation target level of 2-3% is still way above the current estimated inflation that is at 1,5%. Moreover, key commodity prices (iron ore, copper, crude oil) are much lower than a year ago as a result of oversupplied market, and this is another factor weighting on the RBA's decision.

The AUD/USD pair moved higher after the RBA's decision. Currently, it is trading just under the upper daily golden channel line. In case of any breakout, the next resistance is seen at the level of 0.7234 and support is seen at the level of 0.6906.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 6, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 06/10/2015 08:20CET

Another internal bullish divergence occurred in the hourly time frame. Now, the whole structure looks more bullish. As long as the low of the wave (i) green at the level of 1.3010 is not violated there is still a possibility for another upward wave progression.

Support/Resistance:

1.3455 - Swing High

1.3310 - WR1

1.3229 - Weekly Pivot

1.3127 - Intraday Resistnace

1.3063 - Intraday Support

1.3010 - Technical Support

1.3000 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders from current market levels with SL below the level of 1.3000 and TP at the level of 1.3229.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 6, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 06/10/2015 08:00 CET

Wave c green to the upside had been completed as anticipated and the market reversed to the downside after a fake breakout. Now it is trading around the weekly pivot at the level of 134.41. However, the current wave structure looks like more complex and time-consuming pattern in progress. Wave X brown might be now developing. Any breakout below wave (b) blue low will invalidate this scenario.

Support/Resistnace:

133.15 - Wave (b) Blue Low

133.79 - WS1

134.41 - Weekly Pivot

134.56 - Intraday Support

135.43 - WR1

135.70 - Intraday Resistnace

Trading recommendations:

The buy orders were closed as an upward breakout turned out to be short-lived false breakout. Currently, sell orders are preferred for daytraders with SL above the level of 134.98 and TP at the level of 133.79.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 6, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair remained volatile being alternated with a short-term bullish and bearish swings. In spite of high volatility, the price has entered a consolidation phase, which would hold until a significant movement to the upside or to the downside takes place. This is what we call a breakout.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair was also volatile on Monday, making some bullish attempt all the way. Although the price threatened some consolidation, the bias is still bullish; and unless there is a strong bullish breakout, there would not be a serious plunge here. It should be mentioned again that the outlook for the USD is upbeat.

GBP/USD: In the context of a downtrend, the cable moved a bit downwards on Monday. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern remains valid in the market, and it cannot be rendered ineffectual until the distribution territory at 1.5300 is overcome. Further bearish journey is expected today.

USD/JPY: Owing to the ongoing struggle between bulls and bears, this currency trading instrument has become quite choppy because there is not a strong directional movement yet. This week, the price would either break the supply level at 121.00 to the upside or break the demand level at 118.00 to the downside. This condition must be met before the consolidation phase is over in the market.

EUR/JPY: A bullish attempt that was seen on Monday was thwarted by a bearish correction that occurred later. Today would determine whether the direction would be bullish or bearish in the market. If the price fails to perform a directional movement, the market would enter an equilibrium phase.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 6, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

There was no time for even a minor correction yesterday, and we sow an expected decline closer to our first target at 1.6728. In the short term, we will be looking for a breakout below support at 1.7152 confirming the next part of the decline to a target at 1.6728.

Minor resistance is now found in the area of 1.7200 -1.7220, which will ideally protect the upside for a breakout below support at 1.7152.

Trading recommendation:

We missed our EUR selling point at 1.7580, but we will sell EUR at 1.7215 or upon a break below 1.7151 (one order done cancels the other). Our stop will be placed at 1.7285 and take profit will be placed at 1.6750.

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