Thursday, 30 July 2015

Gold technical analysis for July 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The gold price got rejected yesterday at the Inverted Head and Shoulders neckline. The price remains in a bearish trend and once we break support at $1,077, we should move lower towards $1,040. Important resistance remains at the level of $1,105 that bulls need to break for the gold price to move higher towards $1,130.

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Green line - neckline resistance

Blue line - trendline resistance

The gold price remains below the cloud resistance and below the blue trendline resistance. The price got rejected on the 4-hour chart at the Ichimoku cloud and at the neckline. The Inverted Head and Shoulders scenario is not playing out as expected and it was never triggered. The trend remains bearish. I expect more selling pressures to arise.

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Red lines - price projection after break down

Blue line - long-term support broken

The weekly chart remains bearish. The price has not managed to stage any considerable bounce towards $1,130. Target remains near $1,040 and even towards $980. The long-term trend remains bearish. I remain bearish.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

After the FOMC meeting, the euro edged down against the greenback to the weakest intraday close for 11 straight sessions.

"Federal Reserve officials face a conflict as they plan to start raising interest rates later this year: There has been a lot of progress in their goal for U.S. job growth, but little in their objective of modestly rising consumer prices," Jon Hilsenrath writes in his article.

The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged at 0-0.25%. The US economic activity sligtly grew, employment rose higly, and the unemployment rate fell.

Today, traders keep an eye on the data on the US advance GDP on a quarterly basis and unemployment claims. Besides, the Spanish flash CPI and GDP reports are due to be released today too. We expect optimistic data from Spain, but the trade remains influenced by the US statistics.

Technical view: The euro bulls lost the momentum, rejected thrice at 50DSMA and close below 20DSMA at yesterday's session.

Sell on lower lows and lower highs on the H1 chart. The pair made a double top at 1.1084 manage to gain support by the parallel level 1.0967. On the four-hour chart, the pair has been trading in an ascending bearish channel, rejected at the upper end of the trendline willing to go further down.

Until the pair trades below 1.1085 sell on rise in the intraday. The supply zone remains between 1.1085 and 1.1100 50DSMA. Until the price close below 1.1100, sell on rise in the positional trade. Monthly support is at 1.0730.

Intraday resistance seems to be at 1.1000, 1.1020 and 1.1050. Support is at 1.0960,1.0925 and 1.0900. In case, if the pair loses the 1.0850, selling will accelerate. The Federal Reserve and the ECB monetary policy differentiation favours the longer-term bearish trend.

The safe-selling trade is available only below 1.0920 aimed at 1.0870 and 1.0850. The selling accelerates only below 1.0850. The selling opportunity indicated below 1.0950. The immediate target is at 1.0930. The selling accelerates only below 1.0920.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The FOMC meeting did not put pressure on the precious metal at yesterday's session. Gold closed with marginal gains well managing to hold above the support level.

The yellow metal has been unable to prove its safe haven status during the Greek crisis. The FOMC meeting delivered strong signals for the rate hike this year. In this case, the metal's reaction will be mild positive. Next days we can observe divergence in the price movement of the precious metal.

Barclays and Blackrock expect the rate hike to take place in September, but Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas expect it in Decmeber. Finally, the rate hike seems imminent.

Technical view: The yellow metal was trading at $1,096.80 during today's Asian session compared to Tuesday's closing price of $1,096.70. The weekly trading pattern is framed between $1,085.00 and $1,119.00 on a closing basis. A close on either side will lead to more room to trade. On the weekly chart, the metal managed to hold the channel support trendline at $1,085.00 on a closing basis. The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below the large bearish head & shoulder pattern.

The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,077.00 and $1,073.00. In case of a weekly close below $1,085.00, gates to $1,068.00, $1,045.00, and $1,005.00 will be open. On the monthly chart, strong support zone is seen between $1,045.00 and $1,032.00. The metal fell below the 14-year ascending trendline on the monthly chart. It has been managed to close above $1,085.00 on a daily closing basis for eight consecutive days.

Intraday: Intraday support is at $1,095.00,$1093.00 and $1,090.00. Resistance seems to be at $1,1100.00,$1,106.00 and $1,110.00 levels. In case of a daily close below $1,085.00, gates to $1,077.00 initially and later towards $1,055.00 will be open.

The metal has been making higher lows on the H1 chart with preparing strong base at $1,090.00 and $1,085.00.

After a month time, the metal made a higher high on the H4 chart.

Intraday selling is below $1,090.00 and $1,088.00 initially. Selling accelerates below $1,085.00 towards $1,082.00, $1,080.00 and $1,077.00. Panic likely to be triggered below $1,077.00. Use a rise to sell . Buying ais vailable above $1,100.00, target is at $1,102.00 and $1,104.00. A strong pullback is likely to take place above $1,106.00 towards $1,109.00 during a day.

A daily close is above $1,110.00. Bulls aim at $1,118.00, but chances are remote. As of now, the trend favours a pullback with SL $1,090.00. Risky traders can use a dip to buy with SL $1,090.00. The target is at $1,107.00, $1,110.00, and, in the extreme case, $1,117.00.

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To contact the author of this analysis, please email: joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of Gold for July 30, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Global macro overview for 30/07/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 30/07/2015:

The crude oil prices gained more than 1.4% yesterday after the crude oil inventories news release was a big miss. The market expected 700k barrels, but the inventories declined by -4203k barrels in the week to July 24. Moreover, the gasoline inventories dropped by 363k vs. 512k expected gain. As a result, the oil prices rallied to the level of 49.51, but then were capped by the strengthening US dollar due to the Fed data release. Currently, the crude oil (current month contract) is trading at the level of 48.77 at the time of writing. Any breakout above the level of 49.76 will be considered as bullish (bounce/rebound) and any breakout below the level of 48.43 will be considered bearish (downtrend continuation).

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Global macro overview for 30/07/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 30/07/2015:

Yesterday the Fed decided to keep the rates on hold, but did not completely ruled out a possible rate hike this year. The Fed justification was based mainly on improvement in the labor data that is still not strong enough to raise the rates this month. The statement was dovish to midly hawkish with the emphasis on economic data from the US. This means the market will be quite sensitive to any economic news from the US that will come during the next three months. Nevertheless, there is a clear positive attitude in the Fed to raise the rates this year for the first time since 2006 if the data from labor market and inflationary pressure will improve enough. Any softening in the data (NFP number below 200 000, inflation below 1%) will make the Fed wait even longer to the December before making any decisions.

The EUR/USD reaction for the Fed decision resulted in a fake breakout above the golden trendline and now the market is in a reversal mode. The 61% Fibo at the level of 1.0930 is the key daily support level and if it is broken, the lows at the level of 1.0808 will be in view.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 30/07/2015 08:40 CET

The corrective cycle in wave 2 black might have been completed and yesterday's FOMC decision to keep the rates on hold might cause another impulsive wave progression to the upside. There is the first confirmation that the market can start another wave upwards, because the golden trendline had been violated. The next resistance is seen at the level of 1.3026 (weekly pivot) or 1.3045 (intraday resistance). Please notice that only a new high above the level of 1.3101 would confirm that the bottom in the wave 2 black is in place.

Support/Resistance:

1.3135 - WR1

1.3101 - Swing High

1.3045 - Intraday Resistance

1.3026 - Weekly Pivot

1.2965 - Intraday Support

1.2952 - WS1

Trading recommendation

Daytraders should consider opening buy orders from current market levels with SL below the level of 1.2964 and TP at the level of 1.3026.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 30/07/2015 08:30 CET

The corrective structure is getting more complex and time-consuming. After breaking the lower channel line, the market heads towards lower levels to test the weekly pivot point at 135.60. Please notice that this kind of a range-bounded price action might last some time until the level of 138.12 or 133.26 is violated. Trading conditions might get choppy and full of whipsaws.

Support/Resistance:

137.67 - WR2

136.86 - WR1

136.33 - Intraday Resistance

135.60 - Weekly Pivot

134.77 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Daytrading levels:

- for bulls: the best level to place a buy stop order is at the level of 137.10 with tight SL (15-20 pips) and TP at the level of 137.63

- for bears: open sell orders at current market levels with SL above the level of 136.32 and TP at the level of 135.60

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 30, 2015 . Thanks for your support.