Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/NZD for April 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

NZD: The Reserve Bank of NZ has left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 3.5 percent today. The New Zealand economy continues to grow at an annual rate of around 3 percent supported by low interest rates, higher net immigration, construction activity, and fall in fuel prices. House price inflation is elevated in Auckland. However, lower dairy incomes, lingering effects of drought, fiscal consolidation, and higher exchange rate are weighing on the outlook for growth. On a trade-weighted basis, the New Zealand dollar continues to be unjustifiably high and unsustainable in terms of New Zealand's long-term economic fundamentals. The timing for further adjustments in the OCR is likely to depend on the inflationary pressure in both the non-traded and traded sectors.

Technical view: Immediately after the RBNZ policy meeting, traders started selling off the kiwi against AUD, EUR, and GBP. The crosses EUR/NZD & GBP/NZD gave a bullish inverse head and shoulder break on the higher side.

EUR/NZD: The cross edged higher and made the double bottom at 1.4174, which was a low back in April 28, and changed the direction. The cross managed to close above 20&50 dsma at yesterday's session. It gained 3% closed at the highest point of the day. Today, the cross has opened on a bullish bias trading at 1.4558 compared to 1.4474. Currently, the cross is trading at a 5-week high and above the previous swing in the daily chart. In all time frames, the near and medium-term trends favor buyers. In the near term, we expect bulls to challenge 1.4685 and 1.4785 In the medium term, the levels of 1.4820, 1.4860, and 1.4930 are likely to be challenged. At the Asian session, a big spike took place. Those who wish to join this cross bull's party start buying between 1.4540 and 1.4390 use sl 1.4170.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for USDX and USD/JPY for April 30,2015 Market Analysis Review

Yesterday, we didn't get any signal from the Federal Reserve after the FOMC meeting. The March strong tone was missed in April. Labour market conditions improved in March but it was moderated in April. Economic growth was moderated in March and slowed in April. The US announced the GDP in the Q1 2015 was 0.2% compared to 2.2% in the Q4 2014. Literally, the US economy has stalled. The USDX drifted to the 100Dema 94.60. In case the price closes below 94.60, bears can challenge 93.80 and 93.20. On the up side, 96.17 acting as strong ceiling. The index was capped at 100.00 mark for the near term. At yesterday's session, we advised 94.66 to be the last hope for bulls. The index made a low at 94.68 and closed at 95.10. Today, the index is trading in green zone.

USD/JPY

Japanese factory output was released within the Asian session today. The readings were far below expectations printed at 0.3%. The Japanese factory output data interlinked with the China and US economy. Both economies have been struggling.

Technical view: The pair made the double bottom between 118.30 and 118.54. The 100Dema is found at 118.20 moved from 118.00 to 118.20. Ahead of the BOJ monetary policy, JPY is trading higher against USD. In case the price breaks below 118.50, it can get up to 118.30. In case the price closes below 100Dema 118.20, bears can challenge 117.20 and 116.50 in the near term. The strong resistance is seen between 119.30 100Dsma, 119.50 20Dsma, and 119.85 50Dsma. In the four-hour chart, we can observe head and shoulder pattern formation. Bulls' last hope is found at 118.20. We have been recommending buying on dips. This view will erase if 118.20 was taken off and reverse the trade for the given downside targets. The trading pattern is framed between 119.45 and 118.20. Intraday support is found at 118.60 below this mild support is found at 118.54 and 118.30.We recommend intraday selling below 118.50 with small targets at 118.30, 118.00, and 117.90. In case the price closes below 118.20, bears can challenge 117.20, 116.80, and 115.80.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for USD against CAD and CHF for April 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/CAD

The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) increased 0.3% in March as a result of higher energy and petroleum product prices. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) declined 0.9%, mainly because of lower prices for crude energy products.

Today, traders eye Canada GDP m/m. We expect neutral stance for April.

Technical view:We have been recommending selling with sl 1.2350 with targets at 1.2100 and 1.1875 (dated April 21, 2015 article). As of now, the pair made a low at 1.1945. Yesterday, we advised the pair was going to touch 1.1950, 1.1900, and 1.1875 on the downside. The pair made a low at 1.0945. The pair found strong resistance between 1.2210 and 1.2270 100Dema and 100Dsma respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma or 100dema, bearish view remains in play. Besides, the bearish cross took place in the daily chart. On the downside, the support is found at 1.1850 and 1.1690. The weekly 38.2 fib is seen at 1.1980. Intarday view: Ahead of today's event, CAD is trading higher against USD. Hourly resistance is seen at 1.2045 and 1.2090. On a daily basis, until the pair closes below 1.2170, use every rise to sell for the rest of the targets.

USD/CHF

The pair gave a break on the downside from the bearish head and shoulder pattern. In all time frames, the pair favors bears. All the USD related pairs (USD/CAD,USD/CHF, and USD/JPY) favor bears. Except for USD/JPY, the pairs are are expressing extreme bearish mode. The pair made a strong base at 0.9490, fell, and closed below that. Use every spike to add more sell trades. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to hold the 100Wema. On the down side, support is found at 0.9220 and 0.9160. We recommend to start positional buying between 0.9250 and 0.9200 with sl 0.9160.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, economic data on Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, ECB Economic Bulletin, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m are due.The US is expected to release data on the Natural Gas Storage, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Core PCE Price Index m/m, and Unemployment Claims. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1166.

Strong Resistance:1.1160.

Original Resistance: 1.1149.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1138.

Target Inner Area: 1.1112.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1086.

Original Support: 1.1075.

Strong Support: 1.1064.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1058.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Press Conference, Housing Starts y/y, Monetary Policy Statement, and Prelim Industrial Production m/m. The US will publish economic data on Natural Gas Storage, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Core PCE Price Index m/m, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 119.55.

Resistance. 2: 119.32.

Resistance. 1: 119.08.

Support. 1: 118.81.

Support. 2: 118.58.

Support. 3: 118.23.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for GBP/NZD for April 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

GBP/NZD: The cross has been enjoying 1year bull ride from a low of 1.7704. Previously, the cross gave an inverse bullish head and shoulder break in the weekly chart. The weekly target is almost completed. The cross has been consolidating between 1.9238 and 2.1050 for 7 months. On the weekly chart, the cross has been forming higher lows and lower tops. Today, after the RBNZ rate announcement, the cross gave an inverse bullish head and shoulder pattern targeting 2.0500.

The cross edged higher, made the double bottom at 1.9300 that was a low back in April 21 and changed the direction. Today, the cross has opened on a bullish bias trading at 2.0254 compared to 2.0072. Currently, the cross is trading at a 5-week high. In all time frames, the near and medium-term trends favor buyers. In the near term, we expect bulls to challenge 2.0500. Traders can buy above 2.0350 with targets at 2.0500. Ahead of the UK election, we expect wild moves in coming days. Only lion hearts can trade in this cross.

Trade: Buying above 2.0350

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for April 30, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD

EURO:The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.6% in March 2015 from 4.0% in February 2015. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from January 2015 to March 2015 increased to 4.1%, from 3.8% in the period from December 2014 to February 2015. The inflation rate in Germany is expected to be 0.4% in April 2015. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office also reported that the consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.1% on March 2015.

Upcoming data: The eurozone macro calendar offered a data-heavy day. Today, traders eye German retail sales data, French consumer spending, Spanish flash CPI on Y/Y, Spanish flash GDP q/q, Germany unemployment change, CPI flash estimate y/y, core CPI flash estimate y/y, and unemployment changes. Things should pick up rapidly by today however as we have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to. We expect positive data from Germany and Spanish. The euro CPI and unemployment are likely to show positive readings as well.

Technical view: The pair has been extending its bullish footprints for five consecutive days. The pair was rejected at 161.8 FE, 1.1191 in the daily chart. At yesterday's session, the pair made a high at 1.1188 but closed at 1.1128. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The euro is trading at 1.1115 against USD compared to Wednesday's close price of 1.1128. The pair managed to give a break on the upside in the strong supply zone around 1.1055 and closed above that. The immediate resistance was found at 1.1250 20Wsma. We expect the near-term cap between 1.1250 and 1.1315. As of now, the pair gained 380 pips with our correction. In case the price breaches above 1.1250 2Dsma, another strong resistance zone will be found at 1.1300 and 1.1315 10Dsma and 100Dema respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma/ema, the bearish views remain in play. Bulls have only 100 to 150 pips on the upside. Further spikes will favor new sell trades with sl 1.1250 on a weekly closing basis or use sl 1.1315 and start selling.

Intraday view:Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1191 and weekly resistance is seen at 1.1250. Intraday support is found at 1.1110 and 1.1067. Today and tomorrow's trading pattern is framed between 1.1030 and 1.1250. Either side break will provide further room to trade aggressively. The previous supply zone at 1.1030 and 1.1055 is currently acting as a support zone. For risky traders we recommend selling with sl 1.1129 for targets at 1.1070 and 1.1050. Panic will be triggered below 1.1030. In case German and European data print positive readings, we will recommend buying above 1.1130 with targets at 1.1150, 1.1190, 1.1230 whereas 1.1250 is the crucial trend-change level on a weekly closing basis.

Trade: Selling with sl 1.1129

Buying above 1.1130

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