Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. It is supported by the weak yen sentiment, firmer EUR/USD undertone and demand from Japan's importers. Sterling sentiment was boosted by less-dovish-than-expected Bank of England MPC November meeting minutes showing a seven against two vote for leaving rates unchanged at 0.5% and deepening divisions among the seven-member majority who favored keeping rates on hold. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 186.15 and the second target at 187. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 182.80. The pivot point is at 184.15.

Resistance levels:

186.15

187

187.75

Support levels:

183.35

182.80

182.35

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EUR/NZD : analysis for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested and rejected from the level of 1.6035 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand on the market in a volume below average. The price rejected from our submajor Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1.6035. I found the support level at the price of 1.5870. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5998

R2: 1.6042

R3: 1.6113

Support levels:

S1: 1.5857

S2: 1.5813

S3: 1.5743

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since we may expect reaction from sellers

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Gold : analysis for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,174.90 in a very high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a volume above average, which is a sign that we may see possible bearish movement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,176.00 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,160.00 Anyway, my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities after a bearish corrective phase (buy on the low).

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,200.45

R2: 1,207.01

R3: 1,217.63

Support levels:

S1: 1,179.21

S2: 1,172.65

S3: 1,162.03

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 150.00

R2: 149.52

R1: 149.13

Current spot: 148.78

S1: 148.33

S2: 147.83

S3: 147.44

Technical summary:

The direct break above resistance at 148.30 calls for an extension in wave v higher to 152.15. Double extensions in the currency market are a rare phenomenon, which of course signals strong underlying weakness. Short-term support is now found at 148.33 and again at 147.83, which ideally will protect the downside for the continuation higher towards the extension target at 152.15. At this point, on a break below 146.70 will indicate that wave v and (i) is over and a deeper correction towards 142.06 was unfolding.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 148.50 was hit for a loss. Trying to jump train now feels a little risky, so we will stay neutral for now.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General outlook for 20/11/2014 10:30 CET

The corrective cycle is still in progress but there are first clues that the downtrend might resume soon to complete the remaining waves in the downward cycle. Only a clear breakout above the level of 1.1394 would invalidate the current bearish outlook and put the recent swing highs into the test.

Support/Resistance:

1.1120 - Wave 4 Blue Low

1.1173 - WS2

1.1224 - WS1

1.1265 - Technical Support

1.1308 - Intraday Support

1.1311 - Weekly Pivot

1.1369 - Intraday Resistance

1.1394 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Line

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should keep the opened sell orders with SL just above the level of 1.1394 and TP at the level of 1.1220.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General outlook for 20/11/2014 10:00 CET

The corrective cycle has never appeared, so the count has been adjusted to incorporate new wave developments. The most difficult part of the new count has been labeled as Leading Diagonal wave -i- and this maneuver could include the new impulsive count into the wave progression. Moreover, one more impulsive cycle has been added to the overall count (purple count). Please notice all the corrective waves labeled as wave four of a various degree are very short in price and time. That is why the overall wave development might indicate the wave 3 black of a very large cycle is unfolding. Nevertheless, there is always a possibility that the whole impulsive wave progression as indicated by the alternative black labeling is really wave alt:5 of the very large impulsive structure forming the level of 94.22 that started in July 2012.

Currently one more wave is needed to complete the overall structure labeled as green impulsive wave progression with the projected target levels labeled as orange rectangles on H4 time frame chart.

Support/Resistance:

151.50 - 152.60 - Projected Target Level For Wave (v) Green (Typical)

149.37 - 149.57 - Projected Target Level For Wave (v) Green (Minimum)

152.02 - WR3

149.14 - Local High

149.05 - WR2

148.34 - Intraday Support

148.01 - WR1

147.46 - Intraday Support

146.53 - Technical Support

145.02 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

The first level for day traders to join the up trend is the level of 148.01. Nevertheless, if this level is broken, then the next one should be at the level of 147.42. Please set the SL rather tight, like 20-30 pips for intraday trading and the TP level should be placed at the level of 148.37 - 149.57 zone.

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#USDX Technical analysis for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index remains inside its sideways trading range. I do not expect the Dollar index to continue much longer inside this range but until it breaks out I need to remain patient and wait for a valid signal. The Dollar index remains in a longer-term up trend and has not given any signs that bulls should exit their long positions yet.

Black line = support

Red line = resistance

The Dollar index contnues to trade on top of the Ichimoku cloud. The sideways consolidation could very well be a bullish flag within the longer-term bullish flag I have previously mentioned. If the Dollar index breaks above 88.15, we should expect an upward move towards 91. If the Dollar index breaks below 87, we should expect a pull back towards 86 at least.

Red line = resistance

Blue line = support

The Dollar index remains in a longer-term up trend and the ichimoku cloud indicators support this. The bullish flag pattern remains valid with 91 as my 1st target. Now, that we could have a smaller bullish flag inside this larger bullish flag, the bullish scenario has more chances of success than the bearish one (pull back towards 86 or lower).

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