Daily analysis of USDX for August 04, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX had no major changes during yesterday's session, so this instrument remains strong in the bullish trend, below the resistance level of 81.50. Probably, the corrective movements could extend to the support level of 81.00, but bullish outlook still remains alive in the USDX. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.

H4 chart: The USDX has moved in a range below the bullish trend line near the 81.55 level. If the USDX does make a breakout at the support level of 81.02, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.60, where the 200 SMA is located. For now, the MACD indicator remains in negative territory.

H1 chart: The USDX continues to find resistance at 81.40, but there are still chances that the USDX will try a breakout on the resistance level of 81.40 to move up to the level of 81.58, because the USDX is still above the 200-day moving average in this chart. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 81.40, take profit is at 81.58, and stop loss is at 81.21.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 05, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: GBP/USD has made a slight rebound at the level of 1.6851, where this pair formed a fractal. This move could be the confirmation of the formation of a higher low pattern in favor of the bearish trend. The GBP/USD has been in a strong bearish bias, so it is likely that this pair will start making longer corrective movements. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: This pair has made a rebound on the support level of 1.6820, so it is very likely that the GBP/USD will attempt to climb to the resistance level of 1.6900. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the level of 1.6995, where the 200 SMA is located. MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD is conducting a breakout at the level of 1.6850 as the pair is intending to go up to the resistance level of 1.6900, which is close to the 200 SMA. On the other hand, if the GBPUSD makes a pullback at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6800.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6800, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6850.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is undermined by the weaker USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.31 versus 81.46 early Friday) after smaller-than-expected 209,000 increase in U.S. July non-farm payrolls (versus forecast +230,000) and higher-than-expected unemployment rate of 6.2% (versus forecast 6.1%), surprise 1.8% drop in U.S. June construction spending (versus forecast for +0.4% rise), University of Michigan final July sentiment index coming in at 81.8 (versus forecast 81.9). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese export sales and selling of yen crosses amid increasing risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 0.47% to 17.03, S&P 500 fell 0.29% Friday to close at 1,925.15). But USD sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 57.1 in July from 55.3 in June (versus forecast 56.0), while the employment sub-index jumped from 52.8 to 58.2. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from Japanese importers.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but stochastics is bearish in the overbought zone.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 102.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 102.15. The pivot point stands at 102.75. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103 and the second target at 103.40.

Resistance levels:

103

103.40

103.75

Support levels:

102.30

102.15

101.85

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weaker USD sentiment. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing but stochastics is turned bearish in the overbought zone.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9035. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9010. The pivot point stands at 0.9080. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9095 and the second target at 0.9110.

Resistance levels:

0.9095

0.9110

0.9130



Support levels:

0.9035

0.9010

0.8975

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a two-month low at 0.8459 on Friday. It is supported by the weaker USD sentiment, NZD-USD interest differential and Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD upside is limited by the Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increasing investor risk aversion and weak dairy prices. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five and 15-day moving averages are declining, but bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Friday, stochastics is turned bullish to the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8560 and the second target at 0.8585. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8430. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.84. The pivot point is at 0.8460.

Resistance levels:

0.8560

0.8585

0.8620

Support levels:

0.8430

0.84

0.8375

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in lower range. It is undermined by the increasing risk aversion and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers. The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is in a bullish mode, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 171.90. The pivot point stands at 172.95. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.35 and the second target at 173.75.

Resistance levels:

173.35

173.75

174.20



Support levels:
172.3

171.90

171.65

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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for August 4-8, 2014 Trend News

Technical levels of the GBP/USD pair :

General idea about the pivot point :

• Resistance 3 and support 3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well in the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the resistance 1 and support 1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and even reach resistance 2 and resistance 3 or support 2 and support 3. If the trend breaks resistance or support through, it is likely to result in a significant price movement, it is also referred to as breakout.


• It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

Forecast :

• According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still been moving between 1.6805 and 1.6880. The level of 1.6878 represents the weekly pivot point. It should be noted that the weekly pivot point coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. So, sell below 1.6878 in the short term with the first target of 1.6812 in order to test the double bottom, it might resume to 1.6756 (support 1) if the trend will be able to break the double bottom at 1.6812. The stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Thus, it will be rather profitable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.6905.

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