Thursday, 24 July 2014

#USDX Technical analysis for July 24, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index is very close to the previous high of 81. It seems that selling pressures rise as the price is getting closer to that area. A pull back has started early today but I believe this is just a pause to the larger uptrend that has started from 79.75.


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The Dollar index has broken the short-term upward sloping trend line and might pull back towards 80.70-80.50 (max) area. The price is in uptrend above the Ichimoku cloud. I believe this uptrend will continue and resistance at 81 will be broken eventually. The larger pattern remains bullish with 81.75 medium-term target.


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The daily chart shows clearly how the price was rejected to the resistance area. However, I believe this pause before the rise is only temporary. This uptrend will resume again after a small correction. The daily trend is up and we target at 81.75.


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Gold Technical analysis for July 24, 2014 Trend News

The Gold price has broken the the $1,300 price level and is heading towards the previous low at $1,290 and where the 38% Fibonacci retracement is found. I believe it is more probable to see the $1,290 low being broken and the Gold price falling towards the 61.8% retracement.


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The short-term trend is bearish. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud resistance and has been rejected at the 61.8% retracement of the 5 wave move from $1,346 to $1,290. The upward move from $1,290 to $1,325 was corrective as expected and reached our sell target. Now, prices are moving lower as expected and I see the price moving at least towards $1,285.


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The daily chart above shows that the price is heading towards the Ichimoku cloud near $1,285-80 area. Critical support is found at $1,280 where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,240 to $1,346 is found. Breaking below that level will increase the chances of confirming our bearish scenario towards $1,000.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 24, 2014 Trend News

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5831


R2: 1.5756


R2: 1.5708


Current spot: 1.5675


S1: 1.5650


S2: 1.5598


S3: 1.5561


Technical summary:


The correction in wave ii moved a little lower than the expected 1.5485 (the low came in at 1.5443), but the following rally is most encouraging and calls for a continuation in wave iii higher to at least 1.5885. Ideally, now we will see support near 1.5598 to protect the downside for the next rally higher to 1.5885. However, even if we do see a correction lower to 1.5540, it will not change anything in the larger picture.


Trading recommendations:


We are long in EUR from 1.5525 and will move stop higher to 1.5440. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy close to 1.5598 with the same stop at 1.5440.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 24, 2014 Trend News

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.00


R2: 136.73


R1: 136.60


Current spot: 136.45


S1: 136.36


S2: 136.25


S3: 136.09


Technical summary:


Not much news to add here. We are still looking for a correction to just below 137.34 to end red wave iv and set the stage for red wave v lower to 135.49. In the longer term, we are still looking for a decline to 134.34, where wave C will equal wave A in length.


Trading recommendations:


Our stop-profit at 136.65 was hit for a nice profit. We will sell EUR again at 137.20 with stop place at 138.15.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 24, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: There is much momentum in the markets. The markets are now trending strongly in most cases. For instance, the EUR/USD pair is now trading below the resistance line at 1.3450, in a strong downtrend. Strong economic figures are expected today and they would have impact on the markets.


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USD/CHF: After the USD/CHF pair broke the strong support level at 0.9000 to the upside, the price has succeeded in going more upwards. The support level at 0.9000 is solid enough to challenge any bearish corrections from now on. Thus, the price may reach the resistance level at 0.9050.


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GBP/USD: The Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable is now getting stronger, as the market gives way and the downward trend is developing in a slow and steady manner. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 (and the price is below them). The RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The price could test the accumulation territory at 1.7000.


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USD/JPY: It is said that most markets are trending strongly, but there are exceptions. One of the exceptions is the USD/JPY pair. The USD is strong as well as the JPY. Thus, the current equilibrium movement os taking place. Currently, the market is not attractive to swing and positions traders, but it is great for scalpers and intraday traders. Swing traders would need to wait for momentum to return to the market before taking action.


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EUR/JPY: Owing to the strength in the Yen and the weakness of the Euro, this cross has been trending downwards. It is now below the supply zone at 136.50, and it would go further downwards.


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 24, 2014 Trend News

GBP/JPY


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The pair was pushed to the medium term support level at 172.60 (50 DSma) and bounced back from there. The pair is trading at a three-week low. The nearest support is at 172.36 and 171.80 levels. A day close below 172.36, in the near term it will again turn to the negative mode at 172, 171.70, 170.95 and 170.70 levels.


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For an hourly basis, the pair is trading below the hourly moving averages. It was rejected at 34HrSma twice, and now it is moving further lower. It has resistance at 172.90, 173.06 and 173.20 levels. GBP looks weak. We recommend buying above 173.20 levels with targets 173.35, 173.50 and 173.60.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 24, 2014 Trend News

EUR/JPY


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Japan's manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 from 51.1. Today, traders eye German and French economic data. As we recommended in our yesterday's article, keep buy with sl 136. It's good that the pair is holding above 35 HDema. It has initial resistance at 136.75, above this, 136.83 and 136.95. Strong up move will be intact only above 137 towards 137.30, 137.40, 137.50 and 138 levels.


Intraweek resistance 137.30 137.75


Intraweek support 136.40 136


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If the pair hits the 136 levels, it will shift the mode to a free fall towards 134.10 (80 fib level) which is another support level. Below this, 132 is an open target until the pair trades below the 143.78 levels. The bulls must take the pair towards 138.45 on a closing basis to get back to the triangle again.


Buy with sl 136


Sell below 136


Intraday strong momentum is only above 137.30.


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