Friday, 4 July 2014

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 4, 2014 Trend News

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Bullish breakout above the depicted bearish channel took place exposing price levels around 1.6985 as a projection target.


Simultaneously, daily closure above 1.6820 took place enhancing bullish impulse towards 1.6900 and 1.7000.


The GBP/USD managed to break through psychological resistance around 1.7000 which provided extensive bearish pressure at the last visit on May 6.


Bullish pressure was applied at retesting of the bullish channel lower limit depicted on the 4H chart. This pushed the pair towards 1.7150 where the upper limit of the depicted channel is located.


Note the bullish pressure being applied to break through the upper limit of the 4H movement channel.


No enough bullish pressure is being applied to ensure success of the bullish breakout.


On the other hand, intraday resistance is expected to be found there. A short-term SELL position can be taken at the current prices with SL located just above 1.7190.


Price levels of 1.7050 constitutes a significant support level to meet the pair on its way downwards. It's also a key-level to determine how deep bearish correction can go before resuming the bullish momentum.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for July 4, 2014 Trend News

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The price zone 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum that originated off the depicted bullish trend line.


Thus, a Double Top reversal pattern was established with a neckline located at 1.3700. This reversal pattern has already hit its projection levels.


On the other hand, we should highlight Thursday and Monday's bullish engulfing daily candlesticks which emerged off 1.3500 (the lower limit of the ongoing 4H channel) thus fixating again above 1.3560 (Key-Level corresponding to previous prominent bottom).


As long as the bulls keep defending the recent low around 1.3575 we considering the possibility of a bullish Head and Shoulders pattern with neck-line around 1.3650 with a breakout projection target to be anticipated around 1.3750.


Price zone 1.3600-1.3560 ( 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels ) should be anticipated for bullish price action offering a valid BUY entry at retesting.


This price zone corresponds not only to significant Fibonacci levels but also to the backside of the broken bearish channel depicted on the DAILY chart.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 04, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. Liquidity was thin as financial markets in U.S. are closed for the Independence Day holiday. USD/JPY is underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.21 versus 79.95 early Thursday) after larger-than-expected 288,000 increase in U.S. June non-farm payrolls (versus +215,000 forecast) and lower-than-expected U.S. unemployment rate of 6.1% its lowest since September 2008 (versus 6.3% forecast), while May's jobs gain was revised up to 224,000 from 217,000 and April's improvement was upgraded to 304,000 from 282,000 and narrower-than-expected U.S. May trade deficit of $44.39 billion (versus $45.0 billion forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields and demand from Japan's importers and yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 4.62% to 10.32) as DJIA rose above 17,000 for first time, S&P 500 hit record high 1,985.59 before closing up 0.55% at 1,985.44 overnight. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales and positions adjustment ahead weekend.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is bullish, MACD histogram bars are turning positive and bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Thursday.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.30 and the second target at 102.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.65. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.50. The pivot point is at 101.80.


Resistance levels:

102.30

102 .45

102.65


Support levels:

101.65

101.50

101.35


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 04, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range.It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment and franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold zone, spot rose above downtrend line that runs from June 16 high of 0.9013 .


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8900 and the second target at 0.8880. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8880. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8860. The pivot point is at 0.8915.


Resistance levels:

0.8960

0.8975

0.90


Support levels:

0.89

0.8880

0.8860


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 04, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the positive USD sentiment. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross, Kiwi demand on NZD/JPY cross amid positive investor risk appetite, hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance, NZD-USD interest differential and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is turned bearish at overbought zone.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8720. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.87. The pivot point stands at 0.8790. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8835 and the second target at 0.8860.


Resistance levels:

0.8835

0.8860

0.8880


Support levels:

0.8720

0.87

0.8680


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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for July 04, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. GBP/JPY is supported by the positive investor risk appetite and demand from the Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone, five- and 15-day moving averages are rising.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 175.80 and the second target at 176.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 174.30. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 173.70. The pivot point is at 174.80.


Resistance levels:

175.80

176.15

176.65


Support levels:

174.30

173.70

173.30


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EUR/NZD analysis for July 04, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5524 on volume above the average, according to the daily timeframe. According to the previous price action, we can observe strong supply on ultra high volume, according to the 4H timeframe, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci expansion levels to find potential down stations and I got first down station around the price of 1.5510 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%). Be careful with buying and watch for potential selling opportunities. Third down station (short-term) is still at the price of 1.5335 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5592


R2: 1.5612


R3: 1.5643


Support levels:


S1: 1.5530


S2: 1.5510


S3: 1.5479


Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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