Daily analysis of USDX for April 28, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX remains below the resistance level of 80.11 and for now, the USDX is trying to make corrective movements in favor of the bullish bias. However, this could always change as the USDX make a breakout at the support level of 79.50. On the other hand, if the USDX does make a breakout at the level of 80.11, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.62. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H4 chart: The USDX remains below the 200 SMA and the resistance level of 79.93. The bearish outlook could stay alive during this week, as the USDX continues to encounter resistance at the 200 SMA. If the bearish road continues, the USDX could fall to the support level of 79.33. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H1 chart: The USDX is trying to consolidate above the resistance level of 79.88. However, the bearish bias remains in the USDX, so that the next target would be the support level of 79.64. If the USDX does make a breakout on the resistance level of 79.88, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.15. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.64, take profit is at 79.39, and stop loss is at 79.90.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 28, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: GBP/USD starts a decisive week as this pair has moved within a low range above the support level of 1.6766. The overall trend is bullish in the GBP/USD, but this could change if the pair manages to support a breakout at that level. On the other hand, if the pair manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.6851, the bullish bias could last for several weeks. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.

H4 chart: This pair has made a bearish rebound at the resistance level of 1.6822 and now, the GBP/USD is trying to find support at the 1.6785 level. However, if the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to a bullish trend line, which is close to the level of 1.6730. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD is trying to stay above the 200-day moving average, but the strength of the bears is increasingly present. However, it is likely that this pair will make a bullish rebound above that level. If successful, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.6800. For now, caution should be exercised when placing sell orders. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6800, take profit is at 1.6850, and stop loss is at 1.6750.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 28, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y, and the US will release some economic data such as Pending Home Sales m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.97.

Resistance. 2: 102.77.

Resistance. 1: 102.57.

Support. 1: 102.32.

Support. 2: 102.11.

Support. 3: 101.91.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.91) and resistance 3 (102.97). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

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Weekly forecast and intraday recommendations of EUR/USD for April 28-May 02, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD weekly forecast

EUR weekly key events for April 28-May 02

The euro holds a handful of events this week. These events can drive the currency sideways. For the last two weeks, EUR/USD is forming lower lows and lower highs and trading in a narrow range between 1.3864-1.3785 levels.

Tuesday- Spanish unemployment rate

German prelim CPI m/m

Wednesday- CPI flash estimates y/y

German retail sales m/m

French consumer spending m/m

Spanish flash GDP q/q

Thursday- Euro economies forecasts

Friday- Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI

Euro zone unemployment rate

Technical view-

Weekly basis (April 28- May 02)

In the weekly chart, the pair is forming a rising wedge pattern with the nearest support level at 1.3673 and the resistance levels at 1.3906 and 1.396. Currently, the pair is trading between 1.3864 and 1.3785 levels. On the up side, the pair has strong selling pressure at 1.3906, 1.3950 and 1.3965 levels. The pair will start its new bull run only above 1.40 levels; until it crosses this, sell on rally is the best strategy. For the month of May, the level of 1.3673 is the crucial level to hold for the bulls. In any situation, if this level breaks it will be in a panic mode up to 1.356 and 1.35 levels.

The key level for the bears and bulls is at 1.3906. Until the pair trades below this, bears will have the upper hand on a weekly basis. Sell on rallies is the best strategy for this week as well. For the last couple of weeks we have recommended selling until crossing above the 1.396/1.40 levels. We recommend it this week as well.

Positional - On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.38 levels (50SMA in the daily chart), in case of a break below this, 1.3785 is the immediate minor support. A day close below the 50SMa level, bulls will completely lose the grip for this week and bears will take it to 1.3785, 1.3737, 1.37, 1.3670, and 1.3643 levels. On the up side, we expect to pull back only above 1.3855 for 1.3864, 1.3906, 1.3950 and 1.3964 levels.

Intraday-

We expect the pair to be pulled back towards 1.3855, 1.3864, above 1.3864 it will fly up to 1.3906 levels. For intraday perspective buy with sl 1.3785 for targets 1.3845, 1.3855 and 1.3864. More upside is only above 1.3864 for 1.39 levels. Sell below 1.3785 for targets at 1.3762, 1.3737 and 1.37 levels.

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Weekly forecast and intraday recommendations of GBP/USD for April 28 - May 02, 2014 Trend News

GBP/USD - weekly forecast

GBP Weekly key events - April 28-May 02

TUESDAY - Prelim GDP Q/Q

THURSDAY - Manufacturing PMI

FRIDAY - Construction PMI

Traders will eye tomorrow's report on prelim GDP on a quarterly basis. Despite the floods, it appears the UK economy accelerated from the Q4 pace of 0.7%. The consensus expects 0.9%-1.0%. The manufacturing and construction PMIs at the end of the week are expected to show an economy stabilizing at robust levels.

Technical view-

Weekly basis (April 28- May 02)

The cable is trading at 1.6784 in Asia's trading session. As of now, it is in sell mode. The pair has been in a strong uptrend from 1.6465 levels, but unable to sustain at higher levels. The RSI in the weekly charts indicates limited upside. If a day close above the 1.6823 level, it indicates the first sign of bullishness in the near term, aiming for 1.69, 1.6911 and 1.70 levels. We expect it will top out for the near term and will be in correction for a couple of weeks. In the last's week trading sessions the pair was unable to cross the previous high at 1.6843, it just made a high at 1.6839 and just close at 1.68 levels. Currently it is trading below the 1.68 level.

To continue its upswing the pair must trade above or close above 1.68 levels. On the higher levels, it will face rough road at 1.6823 and 1.6843 levels. Once it crosses these levels, safe traders can buy for 1.6911 and 1.70 levels. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.676 and 1.666. Sellers can enter short positions below 1.6760 for 1.6720 and 1.666 as weekly targets.

Weekly positional recommendations-

Sell below 1.676 for targets 1.6710 and 1.666.

Buy above 1.6843 for targets 1.6911 and 1.70.

In the daily chart, the RSI gives an early warning of support broken indication, aiming for downside target at 1.667-1.666 levels. For the last 8 trading days, the pair has been trading in a range between 1.6843-1.6763 levels. Either side breakout will create a room for further way up/down.

Intraday-

The pair is trading below 50SMA in the H4 chart, which indicates weakness. It is making a lower low and a lower high. For intraday perspective, sellers can enter below 1.6760 levels for targets 1.6720 and 1.67 immediately and 1.666 later. Today we can expect the pair will pull back to a bit higher up to 1.68 and 1.6810 levels. Sell on rise is the best strategy for this week. On the up side, the pair has a rough road at 1.68, 1.6810, 1.6820, 1.6832 and 1.6845 levels. Safe traders can buy only above 1.6845 levels for targets at 1.6875, 1.69 and 1.6911 in this week.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 28, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: This market traded in a range last week, but the bulls are now gaining upper hands. The price is now showing some bullish determination, but the determination would be clearer when the price closes above the resistance line at 1.3850. Should this become possible, the target for this week would be at the resistance line of 1.3900.

USD/CHF: When the EUR/USD goes upwards, the USD/CHF would have nowhere to go but south. In fact, there has been an initial bearish indication in the chart – which would become very sensible when the price closes below the support level at 0.8800. Should this become possible, the target for the week would be at the support level at 0.8750.

GBP/USD: The Cable is still bullish and it may go further upwards this week. This is what is expected to follow the recent consolidation in the market. The price needs to stay clearly above the market territory at 1.6800, while it tries to go towards the distribution territory at 1.6900.

USD/JPY: The perpetual weakness on the USD/JPY has resulted in a ‘sell’ signal. This week, the price may reach the demand level at 101.50. There are supply levels at 102.50 and 103.00. The supply levels would act as barriers to sudden rallies that could threaten the novel bearish signal.

EUR/JPY: This market is not yet attractive; so it is OK to stay aside until there is a directional movement. The most probable direction is southward, especially when the price goes below the demand zone at 141.00.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for April 25, 2014 Trend News

In March, the failure of the bulls to fixate above 1.3880 allowed enough bearish pressure to be applied on the pair towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.

At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied pausing the recent slide off 1.3965 which led to another ascending impulse towards 1.3880.

On April 11, daily candlestick came as a bearish "Doji" indicating lack of enough bullish momentum above 1.6880. This was followed by bearish engulfing daily candlesticks aiming to apply bearish pressure on price level of 1.3800 which is still offering support so far.

At the same time, several bullish attempts took place to step above 1.3850. However, immediate bearish reaction is applied resulting in successive reversal daily candlesticks pushing again towards 1.3800.

Daily breakdown of 1.3800 signals a strong bearish impulse probably towards 1.3740 initially.

Since the EUR/USD pair broke below 1.3855, the pair has roughly been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency until the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3810 and 1.3855.

For the bulls, price zone of 1.3810-1.3785 remains the nearest DEMAND zone to be watched for a valid BUY position. Stop loss should be located below 1.3740.

On the other hand, 1.3880 remains the nearest supply level for the bears. It should be watched for early exit from the current bullish position in case significant bearish momentum is expressed.

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