Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair reverses ahead of the 1.4850 mark. At the moment the pair is trading well below 1.4700. It is expected to receive interim support at 1.4600 levels for now. a bullish reversal there should prompt us to exit short positions.

2. Support is seen at 1.4650/60, followed by 1.4520, 1.4450, 1,4350 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.4850, followed by 1.4950/60 and 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that GBP/CHF could possibly see support at 1.4600 levels. A break below, would confirm that a lower top is formed and prices are headed towards 1.4350 and lower.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4850, target is at 1.4600 and 1.4350.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

The Bank of England keeps rates low. Growth is looking healthier in the UK and inflation is still below the target, so it's unlikely the bank will its benchmark interest rate from the current 0.5%. Bank of England policymakers allows the UK's recovery to gather pace. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £ 375 billion.

Technical view

As we recommended in yesterday's article limited upside and sell on rallies, the same the pair is reacting in today as well. The pair faces strong resistance at 1.6823. The pair is in a sell more for near term or couple days. Overall the pair is set for long trend up side until the US dollar breaks above the 81 levels. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 1.6772. Trades below the 1.6786 adds more weakness towards this pair. On the down side the pair has support at 1.6718, once break below this it will correct up to 1.6684 and 1.6664(50SMA). On the up side, the bull's strength will be back only above 1.6823 towards 1.69 and 1.7 levels. We still favor to sell on rally for a couple of days or fresh longs will get a good opportunity on dip.

For positional basis, the pair is trading between 1.6718-1.6823. Breakout either side will give more room for trading towards 1.7 or 1.66 levels. A day close above the 1.6823 level February 17 high the pair will extend its leg towards 1.6910 and in max case 1.70 levels will be possible. But in the down side, if the pair breaks and close below 1.6718 for a day, the bear strength will take the pair towards 1.6 and in least case 1.6554. The level 1.6554 is the minor trend decider level, if holds bulls will regain strengh if not, the bears will take the pair up to 1.6465 levels.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
After a strong downwards movements from the half of March, the USD/CAD has finally started to show some bullish movements in the last 24 hours. In the 1-hour chart of the pair above, you can see that we are labeling the descending movement from 1.1278 towards the 1.0853 as the impulsive pattern. We have all five waves completed, and also RSI divergence supports this view, so we are going to keep looking for a buying opportunity in the pair at the pullbacks, and to protect our account, we can use the 1.0850 as the stop loss level. First pullback in the USD/CAD pair, should appear in the (ii) wave (coloured blue) of [i] wave (coloured green), and we can use the 50% of the short term cycle from the 1.0853 level as the potential long entry signal. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 1.1037 (161.8% of wave (i)). Swing traders should wait for a impulsive wave [i] to make a five waves move, and than we can look for corrective pullback to enter a trade.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0822, (S2) 1.0844, (S1) 1.0889, (PP) 1.0911, (R1) 1.0956, (R2) 1.0978, (R3) 1.1023.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.0895 with stop loss at 1.0853 and take profit at 1.1037 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards, just like we expected, impulsive cycle in the C wave (coloured red) has been completed, and we need to see now, what can we do next in the pair. In the 1-hour chart, we can observe that ascending cycle from the 0.8918 level, already have enough sub-waves to call the C wave completed. The RSI indicator point for bearish divergence, and this just makes us look for a selling opportunity at the (ii) wave (coloured blue) pullback. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 0.9175 (161.8% of wave (i)). Swing traders should wait for more data to come and prove that bigger downwards trend is going to happen again.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9278, (S2) 0.9324, (S1) 0.9368, (PP) 0.9414, (R1) 0.9458, (R2) 0.9504, (R3) 0.9548.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 0.9400 with stop loss at 0.9470 and take profit at 0.9175 are recommended.

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Forecast analysis of USDX for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Last week when the Dollar index broke out of an ending pattern, it should have seen a strong rally, but for the 9th time it failed to get past the 20-week and 20-month averages. This keeps open the possibility that a larger triangle is forming. Below the recent low of 79.27, the last support exists at 79 levels (double bottom) and 78.62 levels. If the US dollar index closes below 79, it would head to 75-74.5 levels. On the up side, if the price holds the 79 levels and breaks above the 81 level, then the extreme bullish factors will strengthen in the coming days towards higher levels. Note in 2007 even after US stocks had started to decline, the dollar index was declining in March. So a falling dollar is not always bullish, though it does mean money moving out of US equities to other assets like commodities or EMs.

Currently, the trading patten is set between 79-81 levels. Either side breakout will give a boost for bigger/lower new targets. The levels between 79.36-79.27-79 are the best buying zone with closing sl 78.6. We recommend to buy above levels.

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Forecast analysis of crude for April 11, 2014 Trend News

Crude oil has recently looked like forming a 5-wave decline. But the subsequent rally has gone past key retracement, so I have reworked the wave counts. Most momentum indicators are now in buy mode and holding weekly and monthly averages prepared for wave 3 up to 112. The Goldman energy ndx also shows a wave 3 development and the CRB is rising past its wave 1 high. I think this is the best preferred view for now. Crude should be on to a good rally.

In the long-term chart of crude, once again we need to give credit to the long triangular formation. If 112 is surpassed then larger wave C up out of the triangle would head to 147 to test the previous all time high.

In the H4 chart, the RSI is in overbought conditions. We expect the price to come back up to 102.5, 101.90, and 101.20. The price looks weak only below 103 levels.

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Forecast analysis of USD/SGD for April 11, 2014 Trend News

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to the lowest level in almost seven years, which could bolster views of an acceleration in job growth after a cold winter dampened hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 300,000 for the week ended April 5, the lowest level since May 2007, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 62,000 to 2.78 million during the week ended March 29. That was the lowest level since January 2008.

Overview-

When I looked at several triangles in USD pairs some were completed and some may be truncated. So I truncated it for the SGD in October and we did get a rally, But that move did not go past the upper line and now the failure is best judged as an incomplete triangle. The SGD is getting stronger and the pair may continue lower to the triangle line at 1.233 levels before a final bottom.

In the daily chart, the RSI is giving a buy signal. The pair made a lower lows formation within last two trading days, we expect the level of 1.2426 is the support for a couple of days, below that, 1.2401 (double bottom) and 1.2398 (a September 19, 2013 low). So it gives a relief rally towards 1.25, 1.2560, and 1.2575, above 1.2575, it will push towards 1.2622 levels.

Intraday basis-

The pair is facing resistance at 1.2477. We recommend to buy this pair above the 1.2477 levels for the 1.25 immediate target. Once the pair crosses the 1.25 levels, it will extend its leg towards 1.2560 and 1.2575 intraday and btst. If the pair is unable to cross the the 1.2477 levels, it will come back again to gain some more strength at lower levels between 1.2426-1.24-1.2398 or in the last case 1.233 levels. Traders can enter longs above 1.2477 or at lower levels for short-term gain up to 1.26 levels. In the H4 chart, RSI is favoring my short-term buy call.

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