Friday, 7 March 2014

USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 7, 2014 Trend News

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The pair established a prominent top around 1.1220 that pushed the USD/CAD pair back to the previous congestion zone between 1.0850 and 1.0960.


This congestion zone provided considerable support at retesting on February 19. This led again towards 1.1190 where the USD/CAD pair topped on February 21 establishing a possible double-top reversal pattern.


In the long-term, the bullish demand expressed at 1.0960 during yesterday's consolidations is probably pushing towards 1.1235 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci.


Price levels of 1.0950 and 1.0850 correspond not only to a previous congestion zone but also to the uptrend line that was initiated in September 2013, thus the market may offer a good BUY opportunity around 1.0900 with stop loss as daily closure below 1.0850.


Currently, the pair is roughly trapped within a new congestion zone located between 1.0960 and 1.1180. A bullish breakout is more likely to occur based on the mentioned analysis.


It's important to note that daily fixation above 1.1180-1.1235 will probably open the way towards the next resistance level around 1.1650 which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci which is prominent on the weekly chart.


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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 7, 2014 Trend News

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On January 24, the EUR/AUD pair initiated a downside movement. This movement was maintained within the depicted bearish channel.


On February 13, the bulls expressed a bullish breakout above the upper limit when the bears seemed to be weak.


Simultaneously, the bulls established a bullish Head and Shoulders pattern off 1.5000. The neckline was located at 1.5265.


Confirmation of bullish reversal is evident with four-hour fixation above the price level of 1.5265.


Projection target of this reversal pattern is located at 1.5555. However, the bulls couldn't hit higher than price level of 1.5500 where strong bearish rejection was expressed last week.


Currently, the neckline around 1.5265-1.5200 is being threatened by the bears, the pair remains bearish as long as this level remains defended by the bears.


Fixation below this neck-line will open the way directly towards the next support level located around 1.5100 initially.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 07, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a five-week high at 103.17 on Thursday as markets await 1330 GMT U.S. February nonfarm payrolls (expected to increase by 152,000) and unemployment rate (expected to slipped to 6.5% from 6.6% the month before). USD/JPY is underpinned by the buying of yen crosses amid improved risk appetite (S&P hit record-high 1881.94 before closing up 0.17% at 1877.03 overnight) after U.S. jobless claims in the week ended March 1 fell more-than-expected 26,000 to 323,000 (versus 335,000 forecast), and Japan's government revealed a plan to diversify the portfolio of its giant pension fund to nonbond vehicles, fueling expectations for large-scale stock purchases. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields,demand from Japan importers and investment trusts and loose BOJ monetary policy. But risk sentiment are dented (VIX fear gauge rose 2.3% to 14.21) by the lingering concerns over Ukraine as politicians in Crimea voted to become part of Russia and U.S. authorized sanctions over the crisis. Eyes are also on Chinese solar-equipment maker Chaori Solar for possible China's first onshore corporate bond default if the company couldn't meet today's deadline to pay interest on its debt. USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan exporter sales and negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.64 versus 80.09 early Thursday) on lower U.S. 4Q revised nonfarm productivity of 1.8% (versus initial estimate of 3.2% and forecast of 1.9%), bigger-than-expected 0.7% drop in U.S. January factory orders (versus minus 0.3% forecast) and positions adjustment before weekend.


Technical сomment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish and five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.35 and the second target at 103.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.30. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.05. The pivot point is at 102.60.


Resistance levels:

103.35

103.70

104


Support levels:

102.30

102.05

107.65


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 07, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. USD/CHF is undermined by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross and weaker dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF downside is limited by the franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics is turning bearish, five and 15 day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8730. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8710. The pivot point stands at 0.8825. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8730 and the second target at 0.8710.


Resistance levels:

0.8860

0.8895

0.8925


Support levels:

0.8730

0.8710

0.8675


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 07, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a four-month high of 0.8502 on Thursday as markets await U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. NZD/USD is supported by Kiwi demand on NZD/JPY cross amid positive investor risk sentiment, weaker dollar sentiment, hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance and firmer commodity prices. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross, concerns over economic slowdown in China and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.85450 and the second target at 0.8590. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8430. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8395. The pivot point is at 0.8465.


Resistance levels:

0.8545

0.8590

0.8635


Support levels:

0.8430

0.8395

0.8370


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GOLD analysis for March 07, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1,353.20 on ultra high volume (buying climax). Our previous analysis is still active and buying at this stage looks risky. The Gold is around our critical resistance area, the price of 1,338.00. We got FR 61.8% at the price of 1,338.00 and if that level can hold, we may see potential bearish movements. According to daily chart, we can observe demand bar on volume above the average. According to H4 chart, we can observe buying climax at the price of 1,351.00, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,355.00 on strong volume, we may see further upward movement and potential testing the level of 1,395.00-1,400.00. I've placed Fibonacci levels to find potential down stations in case that price start to do corrective phase and I got submajor Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,309.00 and Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,282.00.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,353.48


R2: 1,358.72


R3: 1,367.20


Support levels:


S1: 1,336.52


S2: 1,331.28


S3: 1,322.80


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying since Gold is around critical area and we are also near the high new ground.


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EUR/NZD analysis for March 07, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6367 on average volume. Be careful with selling since we've got buying climax (strong demand) starting from the level of 1.6191. EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase. I have placed Fibonacci levels to find potential upper stations. I got Fibonacci Retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6375 (on the test) and Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6485. Anyway, its very risky to sell at this stage, so my advice is to watch for potential bullish movement if we see rejection from our level.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6362


R2: 1.6401


R3: 1.6464


Support levels:


S1: 1.6236


S2 : 1.6197


S3: 1.6134


Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the potential bullish continuation phase.


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