Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 20, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 20/02/2014 11:10 CET

Five impulsive waves to the downside has been finished and now the first leg of the corrective cycle is in progress. Judging by the shape of the correction, it looks like a ZigZag pattern and the key level to the upside here is at the level of 1.1024. Any breakout lower would make this corrective cycle more complex and time consuming. The first upside target is at the level of 1.1121. Support/Resistance: 1.1121- Target for wave c green 1.1088 - Technical Resistance 1.1063 - Intraday Support 1.1051 - WR1 1.1024 - Key Level 1.0994 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations: The downside break out below the level of 1.1063 means short positions should be opened with SL above the level of 1.1093 and TP at the level of 1.1024.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 20, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 20/02/2014 10:30 CET

The blue impulsive bullish count has been invalidated and now the alternate count is developing. This count indicates more complex and time consuming wave (ii) green as the overall impulsive structure has not been finished. It is still possible that wave c green is in progress now and further price deterioration is being anticipated to a minimum level of 138.57. The key level to the upside is red impulsive count invalidation line at the level of 140.02.

Currently, the price is in corrective cycle of sub-wave 4 red of a minor intraday degree and there is a possibility that golden trend line might be tested from the bottom and get rejected. The downtrend would have resume then and this market would go lower.

Only a clear break out above the key level invalidates the bearish impulsive count.

Support/Resistance:

140.22 - WR1

140.02 - Key Level

139.49 - Intraday Resistance

139.42 - Weekly Pivot

139.18 - 35%Fibo

138.57 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

As long as the golden trend line provides the resistance for the price, sell positions should be opened with SL above the level of 140.02 and TP at the level of 138.57 with a possible downside extension.

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#USDX Technical analysis for February 20, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has made a double bottom as expected at the important support of 79.95. The Dollar index was in oversold area as we mentioned in our previous analysis. This justified the bounce we were expecting. The Dollar index is rising again above 80 and is targeting the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 80.45. This is our short-term target. The Dollar index has broken out the downward sloping channel and this is something that confirms our bullish view.

The Dollar index is expected to find short-term resistance at the black upward sloping trend line resistance. At this resistance, prices got rejected the last time we reached the trend line. Now we expect the Dollar index to break above this trend line.

The daily chart confirms our bullish view as there is a bottom formation complete at 79.90-80 range and we now expect a bounce at least towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Our target for this bounce to complete is the resistance area at 80.60-75. We remain bullish.

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Gold technical analysis for February 20, 2014 Trend News

Gold price had reached overbought levels, and in our past analysis we mentioned how crucial it was for the bullish trend to hold above support levels at $1,319. Short-term trend has changed to downward as Gold price was making lower lows and lower highs in the 4-hour time frame as shown in the chart below. Gold price has also broken the upward sloping trend line support and is heading towards the Ichimoku cloud support at $1,290.

We warned that bulls should be very cautious and we preferred the strategy to take some profits from long positions and raise stops as this downward move is unfolding into a bigger decline that could bring Gold price below $1,300 soon. Bulls will be happy if Gold price manages to break above the downward sloping red trend line resistance as shown in the chart above. As long as this trend line is above current market price, our view will remain bearish or neutral.

The rejection at the long-term downward sloping trend line is important. This could affect Gold price in a way that will bring it back towards $1,260-70 towards the blue upward sloping trend line support. $1,293-95 is important short-term support as this is the 38% Fibonacci correction level of the rise from $1,237 to $1,331. Breaking below this support will bring the precious metal towards its next important support at $1,286.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 20, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: It is essential that this market stays above the price line at 1.3750 for the bulls to continue to maintain their supremacy. A probable sharp pullback does not mean the end of the bulls’ supremacy, as long as it is transient. It is still possible for the market to reach the resistance line at 1.3800.

USD/CHF: It is essential that this market stays below the resistance level at 0.8900 for the bears to continue to maintain their supremacy. A probable sharp rally does not mean the end of the bears’ supremacy, as long as it is transient. It is still possible for the market to reach the support level at 0.8850.

GBP/USD: The Cable has been trending gradually downwards this week, but that can be checked at the accumulation territory of 1.6600. Any movement below the accumulation level would render the bullish outlook invalid; whereas as long as the price is above the accumulation level, the bullish outlook is intact. In addition, more fundamental figures are coming out later today and they will have impact on the markets.

USD/JPY: This pair, in spite of the desperate bullish attempt that was carried out on it this week, has formed another bearish signal. However, the bearish signal is expected to be limited, not going beyond the demand level of 101.00, because it is assumed that the price could rally significantly from there.

EUR/JPY: This is a bull market and the current southward retracement is seen as a sale in the context of an uptrend. This uptrend remains valid as long as the price is above the EMA 56: the price can go upwards any time.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 20, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6748

R2: 1.6713

R1: 1.6670

Current spot: 1.6629

S1: 1.6618

S2: 1.6574

S3: 1.6523

Technical summary:

We now have a five wave rally from the 1.6252 low and a correction can evolve any time now. That said, we do expect the fifth wave to reach 1.6713, before the correction sets in. Once this wave 1 is over, we should see a correction lower towards at least 1.6478. A break below support at 1.6574 confirms that wave 1 is in place and the wave 2 correction towards at least 1.6478 and possibly even lower towards 1.6413 is developing.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 1.6260 and raise your stop to 1.6570 and take profit at 1.6705.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 20, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 140.88

R2: 140.63

R1: 140.42

Current spot: 140.10

S1: 140.00

S2: 139.49

S3: 138.95

Technical summary:

The corrective cycle we were looking for is still unfolding and we expect support at 140.00 and more importantly at 139.49 will protect the downside for the last rally higher towards 142.41 before renewed downside pressure takes over. However, if we does see a break below support at 139.49 the correction from 136.23 will indicate that the correction ended early and a break below important support at 138.95 confirms a new test of 136.23 on the way lower to the ideal corrective target at 126.03.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 140.10 and keep your stop at 139.95 and take profit at 142.25. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR close to 140.00 with the same stop and take profit targets.

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