Wednesday, 12 February 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for February 12, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: This is a bull market and it is understood that it would not go in a straight line. The price is projected to go northwards. There is now a temporary pullback on the EUR/USD, but there is a target at the resistance level of 1.3700. The support level at 1.3600 is a ready hurdle to any southward attempt.


1.pngUSD/CHF: This is a bear market and it is understood that such would not go in a straight line. The price is projected to go southward. There is now a temporary pullback in the market, but there remains a target at the support level of 0.8900. The resistance level at 0.9000 is a ready hurdle to any northward attempt.2.png

GBP/USD: Here, it remains logical to project the distribution territory at 1.6500 as the target for this week. Yes, this remains the target as long as the price is above the EMA 56. However, it must be mentioned that the bullish outlook on the market could be jeopardized, should the price cross the EMA 56 (and simultaneously, the accumulation territory at 1.6400) to the downside.


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USD/JPY: Should one be bullish or bearish on the USD/JPY? In spite of the perceived weakness in the pair, the sensible thing to do is to be bullish, for the bullish signal on it is yet to be violated. Only the price movement below the demand level at 102.00 would render the possibility of a northward journey invalid.


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EUR/JPY: This bullish cross once challenged the supply zone at 140.00 before its current southward correction. It is assumed that the supply zone would be breached again, and the market could soon be trading above it.


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Gold technical analysis for February 12, 2014 Trend News

Gold price continued its upward trend towards our $1,300-$1,320 target. The trend remains up. Gold price makes higher highs and higher lows. Support trend line remains below Gold price confirming bullish trend. Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart remains support. Gold price has reached $1,293 only $7$ away from our target. We believe that there is more upside to be expected.


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Short-term resistance is found at $1,299-$1,310. Short-term support is found at $1.277-80. Breaking below support could push prices towards $1,265-60. Important intermediate-term support is $1,250. Intermediate-term resistance is $1,320-30. Breaking above the intermediate-term resistance could open the way towards $1,400.


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The daily chart shows clearly how bulls have won the battle at the pivot point of $1,260-50. This is now important long-term support that if broken will open the road to a move towards $1,180. Trend remains up in the daily chart with resistance at $1,300-$1,320. The upward move from $1,180 still does not look impulsive, so this must be a larger degree upward correction. Critical resistance at $1,320-30 could be reversal point. Bulls should raise their stops. Bears shouldn't have open positions because trend is up and against them.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 12, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6476


R2: 1.6419


R1: 1.6348


Cureent spot: 1.6309


S1: 1.6287


S2: 1.6238


S3: 1.6214


Technical summary:


The break below support at 1.6344 indicates that a more complex correction is unfolding, than we expected. Wave E is allowed to decline to support at 1.6214 but it can not break below this support as that will invalidate the triangle scenario. In the short term we expect resistance at 1.6344 (former support has turned to resistance) will protect the upside for one last decline closer to 1.6238 before wave E finally is in place.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.6346 was hit for a loss. We will buy EUR again at 1.6260 and place our stop at 1.6210.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 12, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 140.54


R2: 140.30


R1: 139.93


Current spot: 139.78


S1: 139.28


S2: 138.72


S3: 138.17


Technical summary:


Support at 139.50 did protect the downside for one last rally higher towards 140.30 (just 5 small pips above our 140.25 target). We are now looking for a break below support at 139.28 for confirmation that the top of red wave (ii) is in place for a new impulsive decline in red wave (iii) down to at least 131.61. However, the risk is that support at 139.28 protects the downside for a slightly new high, but at no point should resistance at 141.26 be broken as that will invalidate our bearish count.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short in EUR from 140.00 with your stop placed at 141.30. If you are not short in EUR already, then sell EUR upon a break below 139.28 with your stop placed at 140.35.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 12, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 12/02/2014 08:30 CET:


After hitting 78%Fibo at the level of 140.17, the price has declined fast and this leg down might be labeled as wave c of the overall corrective cycle in wave (ii). Currently the most important is the golden trend line breakout as this line has been providing good resistance so far. In this case corrective cycle would be finished and new highs are expected. If the golden trend line holds however then the intraday support at the level of 138.66 will be broken and price will fall out from the channel. Next level of support in this case would be at the level of 139.17. Please notice the bearish divergence has been made as well.




Support/Resistance:


140.29 - Intraday Resistance


139.66 -Intraday Support


139.17 - Technical Support


138.87 - Weekly Pivot


138.14 - Target level for wave (ii)




Trading recommendations:


As long as golden trend line holds short positions should be opened with SL above the level of 140.36 and TP at the level of 139.17.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for for February 12, 2014 Trend News

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
The USD/CAD pair found resistance yesterday, and we see some downward movements in the b wave (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (a) (coloured red) that is currently developing. In the 1-hour chart, we can see that corrective wave b (coloured blue) has completed developing at 1.1091 and from there we are seeing a deep pullback inside the b wave that should end in the next few hours. While price stay above the previous low at 1.0965 we are going to wait for a break above 1.1020, that will trigger the fresh buying opportunity against our invalidation point. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave c should extend 100% of wave a, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave a with take profit at 1.1107 (100% of wave A).


Alternate count: Break below 1.0965 will tell us that we have just ended the (x) wave (coloured red) of the bigger wave [x] (coloured green) at the 1.1107 level, and that we have more downward movements toward 1.0830 to see before we look for another buying opportunity in this commodity pair.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0889, (S2) 1.0946, (S1) 1.0976, (PP) 1.1033, (R1) 1.1063, (R2) 1.1120, (R3) 1.1150.


Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.1020 with stop loss at 1.0965 and take profit at 1.1107 are recommended.




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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for February 12, 2014 Trend News

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday, the AUD/USD pair has continued trading upwards, just like we expected, impulsive wave (v)/(iii) (coloured black) of the bigger wave [i] (coloured green) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart of the AUD/USD pair, we can see that we are currently in the final wave v of (v) that is taking the leading diagonal pattern. We should see the end of the wave [i] in the early London session around at the 0.9070 level and from there we are going to see a lower price, and that is why we want to be sellers when we see the price below the 0.9030 level (confirmation that [i]) wave is over. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 2 should retrace 50% of wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 0.8869 (50% of wave 1). The RSI indicator is still showing divergence and while this divergence stays intact, this count is going to stay valid.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8862, (S2) 0.8901, (S1) 0.8969, (PP) 0.9008, (R1) 0.9076, (R2) 0.9115, (R3) 0.9183.


Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 0.9030 with stop loss at 0.9100 take profit at 0.8869 are recommended.


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