Fundamental analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2014 Trend News

USDCHF

USD gained momentum holding its strength after FOMC meeting and fourth quarter GDP numbers released. Fourth-quarter GDP data validates the Federal Reserve's decision to taper its asset purchases, boosting hopes for a strong 2014. They gave strong forward guidance through commitment to keep interest rates at the record lows for longer. The Commerce Department said US GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter, which is a positive fundamental factor. It raises the optimism towards the US dollar. It managed to maintain its strength against major currencies. Fair value deviations call for a stronger USD against all other currencies.

The GDP figures reveal the health of the largest economy in the world lingering for the 11th straight quarter. The US economy gathers momentum with capacity utilisation rates at their long-term average and the output gap set to narrow going forward. Manufacturing , construction and home sales not recovered fully. As a whole, the economy looks great on the strength of the strongest consumer spending in three years. Consumer spending surged in the October-December quarter at an annual rate of 3.3% led by durable goods like computers, cars and communications equipment and non-durable goods like clothing spending on services.

Recovery in Europe benefits export-oriented sectors of the Swiss economy. As expected, domestic economic dynamics to soften and out growth forecasts falls substantially short of the consent view.

We expect the Swiss Franc to weaken against USD. The pair USD/CHF has been trying hard to break the 38.2% retracement mark for the last two months. In the daily chart, the pair is trading above 21DEMA; oscillators give a buy signal. From December 2013 low of 0.8800, the pair moved towards the higher levels 0.9157 after that gone through correction. This week, the pair managed to close above the level 0.8935, whereas 0.8900 is the strong bull support.

In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at the level 0.9024. Yesterday's high of 0.9048 is very crucial in coming sessions. If the pair crosses yesterday's high, the immediate resistance will be at the level of 0.9105.

We recommend to buy the pair USD/CHF with sl 0.8800 for the higher targets 0.9838 and 0.997.

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Fundamental analysis of Gold for January 31, 2014 Trend News

Fourth-quarter GDP data validates the Federal Reserve's decision to taper its asset purchases, boosting hopes for a strong 2014. The commerce department said US GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Dow Jones rose 156 points on Thursday. US equities soared over 1% on strong GDP data. The USD strengthened and came back of equity market making gold drop 2%. After the currencies rebounded, gold traders stated selling off the metal. SPDR gold trust holdings stood at 792.56 tonnes. The South African labour court on Thursday declared a planned Association of Construction and Mineworkers Union strike in the gold sector. The risk of gold is that it becomes more vulnerable to the downside during this quarter period for physical demand. In India, uncertainty remains with regards to regulations. Gold premiums in India came off noticeably shortly after recent headlines highlighted the possibility of gold import rules changing in the coming months.

In the technical front, gold broken the falling lower trend line. Price is trading below 21DEMA and oscillators are still on the sell side in the daily charts; thus, we expect more room for down side. In the hourly chart, oscillators gave a pullback signal. Gold rebounds from oversold positions.

Support- $1,237, $1,230

Resistance- $1,248 $1,255

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few sessions, the USD/CAD pair has started to go lower, corrective wave [x] (coloured green) or wave [i] (coloured green) has started developing. In the USD/CAD 1-hour chart we can observe a descending movement from the 1.1198 level, possible end of the [y] wave (coloured green), and we are still waiting for a fresh sell signal when the price breaks the lower trend line. Aggressive traders can already try small short position against the high at the 1.1198 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave X2 should retrace 50-61.8% of wave Y, we can define potential targets measuring wave Y with take profit at 1.0895-1.0825 (50-61.8% of wave Y). The RSI indicator is showing strong bullish divergence that confirms a possible end of the [y] wave.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0995, (S2) 1.1036, (S1) 1.1094, (PP) 1.1135, (R1) 1.1193, (R2) 1.1234, (R3) 1.1292.

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin a downward movement. That is why short positions at the level of 1.1150 with stop loss at 1.1200 and take profit at 1.0895 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave

Since our last forecast, the AUD/USD pair has been trading upwards, we are still tracking wave iii (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (v) (colorued red) as the best possible structure, but we are going to discuss an alternate count since we are close to our invalidation levels today. In the AUD/USD 1-hour chart we are tracking wave c of iii wave from the 0.8825 level and while the price stays below this high, we are going to look for more bearish movements in this commodity currency. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave C should retrace 100% of wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 0.8595 (100% of wave A).

Alternate count: we ended the wave i (couloured blue) at the 0.8658 and pullback that started from 0.8709 is a part of the ii wave, if this is correct, we should see one more push higher toward the 0.8920 area before the price turns lower again, but in this case we also want to be short against the high at the 0.9090 level.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8633, (S2) 0.8679, (S1) 0.8728, (PP) 0.8774, (R1) 0.8823, (R2) 0.8869, (R3) 0.8918.

Trading forecast
Proceeding from the Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short position at the level of 0.8900 with stop loss at 0.9090 and take profit at 0.8595 are recommended.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 30, 2014 Trend News

Yesterday, the pair failed to break the Support level of 168.50 to reverse its bearish movement and took a slightly upward move. As seen in today's H4 chart, it is currently trading below the Resistance level of 169.50. Given that, the pair continues its bullish movement and closes 4H above the Resistance level of 169.50, it would be another opportunity for more bullish signals with first target few pips below the Resistance level of 170.00, then we should wait for breaking above this Resistance level to get more bullish signals towards the Resistance level of 170.75 as a second target.

Resistance and Support levels: R3 (170.75), R2(170.00), R1(169.50), S1 (168.50), S2 (167.75), S3(167.10).

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GOLD: analysis for January 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,250.58 on higher volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion levels from the most recent swings and I got FE 61.8 % at price 1,251.00 (currently on the test) and FE 100 % at price 1,240.00. We can observe a rejection from our sub-major FR 61.8% and buying climax, which caused price to start downward movement. If the price breaks our FE 61.8 % (1,251.00) on high volume, we may see the testing of next down station around the prices of 1,243 (Major FR 38.2 %)- 1.2400 (FE 100 %). Buying gold looks risky since we are in short-and mid-term downtrend, and we also got finished the ABCD bullish corrective phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,269.91

R2: 1,274.49

R3: 1,281.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,255.09

S2: 1,250.51

S3: 1,243.10

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful when buying and try to catch the bearish continuation phase.

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Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards. Just as we expected, the price rejected from the level of 1.6422 and tested level of 1.6721 on the high volume. We can observe that strong demand has entered the market at price 1.6515 which is good sign of bullish strength. I have placed Fibonacci levels to find next upper level and I got FE major 61.8 % at price 1.6800. There is a chance that we may see smaller bearish correction in reaction of very high volume so price may test area around the levels of 1.6535-1.6520, before bullish contunuation. Do not forget that EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend and selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6691

R2: 1.6756

R3: 1.6861

Support levels:

S1: 1.6481

S2 : 1.6416

S3: 1.6311

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.

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