GBPCHF hits 1.48 and retreats. Book partial profits on longs Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The currency pair has raised through the 1.48 levels as expected and discussed earlier. It is recommended to book partial profits on long positions initiated earlier and also move risk to breakeven levels. Higher side extensions are still pointing towards the 1.4900/30 levels, before the major reversal could materialize. Support levels are spread through the 1.44/4380 levels, followed by 1.42 and 1.4075; while resistance is fixed at 1.5 (major). The entire structure could be unfolding as the major retracement, towards 1.49, before dropping down below the swing lows formed around 1.4 several months ago. Looking higher for now, before the reversal occurs.

Trading recommendations:

Book partial profits on long positions taken earlier, move stop loss to breakeven, target is at 1.49.

Good luck!

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#USDX Analysis for November 7, 2013 Trend News

We look for lower levels in the Dollar index as the prices are expected to make a downward correction. The upward move from 79 is most probably complete as the current price action has pushed the chart outside of the upward sloping channel.

The dollar index is curently magnetised by the 80.50 support area. We believe that at least a move towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement is very possible. Breaking below 80.38 will confirm that the index is heading lower. As long as prices trade below 80.74 the trend will favor bearish positions with 80.15 target.

The daily chart shows the current price corrective phase we are in. The longer term green trend line was broken upwards and we could soon see a back test of this broken resistance. There are increased chances that the 79 is an important low. However, we remain neutral to bearish, targeting 80.15-80 for the corrective pullback.

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Gold analysis for November 7, 2013 Trend News

Gold continues trading inside the sideways triangle as shown in the chart below. Prices are trendless for the time being and we are waiting with a neutral stance as long as this sideways move continues.

Gold has paused its decline at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the upward move from 1,250 to 1,360. This downward corrective move could have one last leg down towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Above 1,325 this scenario will have small chances. If the triangle is broken downwards then we could see the 61.8% retracement.

The bulls will need first to break above 1,325 short-term resistance and then above the red trend line resistance at 1,350-60. Inability to break above those levels could push Gold prices towards 1,250-60 where the Head and shoulders pattern will be tested as mentioned many times before in our previous analysis. Concluding, short-term resistance is found at 1,325 and short-term support is found at 1,305 and then at 1,290. For now we are neutral. Short-term traders could take action when the triangle breaks.

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#USDX analysis for November 6, 2013 Trend News

The upward move from 79 seems complete as prices have broken outside of the upward sloping channel, and the current price formation seems to be heading downwards as there is weakness in the buying side.

Strength in EURUSD, the major component of the Dollar index, makes the index weaker. Bulls could not manage to make a new higher high yesterday, and a double top was formed at the 80.80-95 area. Prices are heading lower and if 80.50-40 is broken, we should see a downward correction towards 80.15-80.

Resistance is found at 80.75. If prices break above that level, we could see the index move towards 81.10-20, however we believe this scenario is the less probable one. For now, we remain long in the short term, as long as prices stay above 80.50. If 80.50 is broken, we will see at which retracement the index pauses its decline in order to enter long again, as we believe the longer-term trend has changed.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for November 6, 2013 Trend News

Today we focus on the two most probable wave scenarios in Gold. The first scenario implies that we have seen the end of the downward correction at 1,180 and prices are stating a new upward impulsive wave.

The second wave scenario implies that the downward correction is not over yet and we might see another downward push in prices towards the 50% retracement at 1,080.

In order to indentify which scenario has the most chances of success, we will need to watch closely which price levels are broken. The potential head-and-shoulders pattern being formed near the 1,360-1,300-1,250 area supporting the second bearish scenario. Breaking below 1,250-70 will increase the chances dramatically for the second bearish scenario. The head-and-shoulders target if prices break below 1,250 will be 1,140 at least. So it is very possible to see a new lower low. If prices however break above 1,360, then the bullish scenario will be the most possible one, as by breaking above 1,360 the head-and-shoulders pattern will have much less chances of success.

In the short term, we have resistance at 1,321 that if broken could push prices towards 1,337. If resistance holds, we expect 1,290-1,300 at least to be reached.

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EUR/JPY H1 analysis for November 6, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 06/11/2013 09:00 CET

There are now TWO possible scenarios that depend on whether wave 5 of Y brown is finished or not:

SCENARIO #1 - Main Count - It indicates that the price is still in a Triangle formation of wave 4 navy, and there are some waves missing to finish this pattern. A breakout above Weekly Pivot invalidates this scenario.

SCENARIO #2 - Alternate Count - It indicates that wave 5 navy and wave (ii) green are done now and the low is at the 132.33 level. The currecnt price action is the attempt in developing wave 1 to the upside. Breakout above Weekly Pivot confirms this scenario.

Support/Resistance:

133.56 - Weekly Pivot | Invalidation Level |

133.41 - Intraday Resistance

132.93 - Intraay Support

132.60 - Intraay Support

132.33 - Wave 5 First Target Zone

131.75 - WS1

131.68 - Wave 5 Second Target Zone

Trading recommendations:

As mentioned yesterday, short positions are still in favour here with entry close to 133.41 as much as possible and with SL above 133.57 with the potential targets TP1 at 132.33 and TP2 at 131.68.

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USD/CAD H1 and H4 analysis for November 06, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 06/11/2013 08:45 CET

The golden trend line has been broken to the upside, but the next resistance zone that consists of 61%Fibo and DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE still puts a cap on the price, providing resistance.

The Fibo geometry measure on 1:1 swing relationships puts in view the level of 1.0480 as a target for wave c green of X brown, making this zone a Key Intraday Level. If this level is broken, then SUPPLY ZONE and a recent high is in view. If the recent high is broken, then it might be the first clue that the alternate green count indicating the low for wave alt: B is in play. Further, confirmation comes with wave progression - it should be more impulsive than corrective.

Nevertheless, I expect wave X brown to be done in Key Intraday Level zone, and then last wave to the downside should begin. The target for this wave is presented in H4 chart and traders can see that FRESH DEMAND zone at 1.0363 - 1.0369 is the target area. I expect wave B green to finish there and reverse to continue the upward cycle of ABC green that consist of wave C blod navy.

Support/Resistance:

1.0488 - 1.0496 - SUPPLY ZONE | Swing High | Key Level for Bears |

1.0474 - 1.0480 - Key Intraday Level | Wave X brown Target |

1.0463 - WR1

1.0460 - DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE

1.0435 - Weekly Pivot

1.0423 - Intraday Support

1.0390 -1.0395 - Technical Support | SUPPLY BREAKTHROUGH ZONE |

1.0375 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

In anticipation of wave Y to the downside SHORT positions should be in play from the level of 1.0475-1.0480 with SL above 1.0501 and potential targets TP1 at 1.0395 and TP2 at 1.0369.

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