#USDX Analysis for October 1, 2013 Trend News

The impulsive move downwards finally unfolds as expected. The bearish flag and the rejections at the 80.65 resistance that we noted in the previous posts finally paid off our patience. The index fell to new lows as its major component EURUSD has made new short-term highs. The index is heading towards 79.50 and clearly the trend remains downward.

The short-term resistance is now found at 80.31 and at 80.70. Support is found at 79.75 and 79.50. We remain bearish as this leg down is starting and we believe it can reach in the longer term the 79-78 level.

The picture is clearer in the daily chart. The downtrend never ended just paused and as expected by the bearish flag formation prices start falling in an impulsive pattern to new lows. Investors should not have open long positions as all stops were hit for bulls and the trend remains downward with no signs of a trend reversal. We remain short with 80.31 as our first stop.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for October 1, 2013 Trend News

Gold is trading within an upward sloping price channel, but the entire upward move from 1,304 is not impulsive. There are many overlapping price movements in this channel and the most possible scenario is that this upward move is just a correction. Strong resistance is found at 1,345 and 1,360. The support at 1,320 is important as it was tested yestreday and prices did not break below it.

The above chart shows the short-term uptrend, but we feel it is a fragile uptrend. The breaking below 1,320 will test 1,300 and then 1,270. Bulls will need to stay above 1,320 and then try and break above this channel and test the last high at 1,375.

Currently, we are cautiously bullish as long as prices trade above 1,320. This price level could be used as a stop reverse, as it is important support. On the other hand, long positions should be held as long as support holds and traders should add to longs if prices break above 1,345 and 1,360. Confirmation will come with the break above 1,375 that will push prices towards 1,400.

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USD/CAD H1 Analysis for October 1, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 01/10/2013 08:30 CET

Currently, there is some indication that Running Flat wave 2 violet might be finished here and the price has developed the first wave to the upside.

The alternate count, however, points out the possibility of a little more extended wave b green in the shape of Irregular Flat.

So, currently this all depends where wave (ii) green will retrace and what low/high will be taken out first:

- if the high of 1.0327 is taken out first, then the main count is in play,

- if the low of 1.0273 is taken out first, then alternate count is in play.

Due to a higher time frame the unfinished cycles bias is to the upside.

Support/Resistance:

1.0379 - WR2

1.0344 - WR1

1.0332 - 1.0347 - SUPPLY ZONE

1.0307 - Weekly Pivot

1.0285 - Intraday Support

1.0274 - WS1

1.0261 - Technical Support

1.0236 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

The price is in the middle of the range, so it is recommended to wait for some kind of a breakout (upside/downside) and then enter the market accordingly.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for October 1, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6514

R2: 1.6418

R1: 1.6353

Current Spot: 1.6288

S1: 1.6256

S2: 1.6220

S3: 1.6200

Technical summary:

As long as minor resistance at 1.6353 protects the upside we could see a deeper decline towards 1.6200, before wave ii is over. However, once we break above 1.6353 and more importantly above 1.6418 we should see a powerful acceleration higher towards at least 1.6800 and likely even higher towards the former top at 1.7274. The rally from the fifth low at 1.6089 has all the characteristics of an impulsive rally and therefore it should just be a matter of time before the next powerful rally higher begins.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long from 1.6315 with a stop at 1.6175. If you are not long in EUR, then buy at 1.6220 or upon a break above 1.6353 with the same stop at 1.6175.

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#USDX Analysis for September 30, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index is to our 80 target by reaching 80.12. The index remains in downtrend, despite the upward bounce towards 80.40 that it made earlier today. Prices are moving down in an impulsive pattern and this places our next target at 80 or below. We remain bearish as long as prices trade below 80.65.

The bearish flag that we mentioned in the previous posts has broken downwards but also made a couple of back tests that got rejected at the resistance of 80.65. We expect prices to continue lower after the double rejection.

The lower lows and lower highs as shown in the 1-hour charts confirm that the trend is down and as long as prices trade below 80.65 it will remain like this. Therefore, the next target is at 80 or slightly below that level after today's upward bounce. A break above 81 could change a lot regarding both our short- and longer-term view on this index. If 81 is broken upwards, then the longer-term trend could again change to upward. For the time being we remain short as more Dollar weakness is expected.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 30, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6504

R2: 1.6418

R1: 1.6353

Current Spot: 1.6300

S1: 1.6264

S2: 1.6219

S3: 1.6200

Technical summary:

It is not quite clear whether wave ii ended at 1.6219 or that just was wave a of ii. We do favor the scenario, where wave ii did end at 1.6219, but we will have to stay flexible. If we only have seen wave a at 1.6219, then wave b of ii took us to 1.6418 and wave c of ii is currently unfolding for a move lower towards 1.6200, before wave iii takes over for a rally higher, at least, to 1.6776. Only a direct break above 1.6353 and more importantly a break above 1.6418 will confirm that wave iii is developing for the rally towards 1.6776 and higher towards 1.7274 in the longer term.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 1.6315 and move you stop to 1.6175. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy at 1.6220 or upon a break above 1.6353 with the same stop at 1.6175.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 30, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 133.53

R2: 132.95

R1: 132.42

Current Spot: 132.05

S1: 131.34

S2: 130.95

S3: 130.51

Technical summary:

With the break below 132.88 late Friday we knew, that the 1-2/1-2 scenario was incorrect, and we needed to switch to our expanded leading diagonal scenario. This scenario calls for a deeper correction towards 132.11 and, maybe, even lower towards 131.43. For now, we have seen a low at 131.73 and, therefore, we should expect a short-term correction towards 132.42, before the next push lower towards the ideal corrective target near 131.43. Only from here we should expect wave iii to take over for the next impulsive rally higher towards 137.45 and possibly higher. But for now, we should stay focused on the downside as wave ii is in power.

Trading recommendation:

The stop at 132.85 was triggered for a small loss. Place a new EUR buy-order at 131.55 with a stop at 129.25 or buy EUR upon a break above 133.53 with a stop a few pips below the most recent low.

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