#USDX analysis for September 23, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has not made much improvement to the upside and has only moved in a corrective pattern sideways towards the downward channel boundaries. This brings resistance levels lower and soon will be put to the test. Most probable outcome will be for the Dollar Index to make a new lower low towards 80, but we should not exclude any upward surprise specially if the short-term resistance at 80.65-50 is broken upwards.

The prices continue to trade within the downward sloping channel and if the bulls want to have even the slight chance of trend reversal, the index will first need to break above 80.65 and then move above 81.45. Trend remains down and short-term support is found at 80.20. Short positions at 82.40-45 are favored with 82.65 stop and target near 80 or even a new low at 79.90.

The daily picture remains ugly and re-enforces our view that a new low should be expected as the downward pressures are most probably only making a pause. More selling pressures are expected for the Dollar Index that will put the low at 78.85 to the test. Support in the daily chart is found at 79.20-78.85 and resistance at 81.60-82.15. Concluding we prefer short positions as long as the prices trade below 80.65 with 80 as the first target.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 23, 2013 Trend News

Our bearish view on Gold got confirmed and brought us profits as our targets were reached. Early on Monday Gold has tested the 1,300 support and now is trading near 1,327. The pullback down was expected and since the lows are not broken the bulls can be confident of another upward move. Since the low at 1,291 was not broken we can talk about a possible upward move expectation that would test the previous highs at 1,375.

Gold has retraced a bit more than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and we can now say that it has ended the downward correction. If the prices do not break below 1,300-1,291 level, then we could see an upward move towards 1,365 or even 1,430. First short-term resistance is found at 1,342 and then at 1,365. Support is found at 1,309-1,300 and 1,291.

The bulls could use the lows as stop to enter long positions with 1,370 as the first target. Adding to longs above 1,342 could be wise in order to manage better potential risk of failing support at 1,309 if our view is not confirmed. Long-term support is found at 1,270-90 area and that is why we could justify an upward move from these levels. We are now neutral to the bulls as long as the prices trade above 1,300 targeting 1,370. If support fails then we should expect the low at 1,272 to be tested.

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#USDX Analysis for September 20, 2013 Trend News

Dollar is still in downtrend but making a small upward bounce as expected by our last analysis to test the upper boundaries of the downward sloping channel. Trend remains down and it will be very difficult for the bulls to manage and reverse this trend after the sharp spike down after Bernanke's comments last Wednesday.

The prices could continue their upward correction towards the 80.65-70 price level. Trend remains down and it is very possible to see a new lower low towards 79.80-70. The bulls will not only have to break above 80.70-80 channel resistance but will need to overcome 81.45 in order for the short-term trend to reverse upwards.

On the daily chart things are rather unpleasant for the long-term trend. Unless the prices manage to move back above 81.10-20 early next week, chances of seeing 82.50-70 anytime soon will be very slim. The longer it takes to reverse, the less possible it is for this downward move to be fake break down. Concluding, we remain neutral as no good risk/reward opportunity is found.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 20, 2013 Trend News

As mentioned in yesterday's analysis Gold has most probably finished its upward move from 1,291 and is now making a reversal. Prices are expected to fall towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement if not towards the 61.8% retracement. We are bearish with the first target 1,346 and second at 1,328.

The prices are heading lower and support is found at 1,320-10 level. If this price level is broken then we could expect the low at 1,291 to be tested. If that low is broken then we should see prices challenge the 1,272 low with increased possibility to break it. The prices have now back tested the broken upward sloping blue trend line. If support at 1,300-1,290 is not broken, then the bulls will most probably have another chance to test 1,400 resistance.

Concluding we are short-term bearish from 1,365-70 with 1,376 stop and target 1,346 and 1,328. The form of the decline from recent high will determine how far we fall and if there is a chance of making a new lower low, than 1,291. We need to give the price more time to unfold and give us more information whether this downward move is corrective or impulsive.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 20, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6348

R2: 1.6263

R1: 1.6193

Current Spot: 1.6161

S1: 1.6111

S2: 1.6073

S3: 1.6011

Technical summary:

As long as resistance at 1.6263 and, more importantly, as long as important short-term resistance at 1.6348 protects the upside we should be expecting a move lower towards 1.6011, as the next downside target. Over the last 10 days we have seen a massive bullish divergence building, which is a warning, that the wave C decline of this expanded flat correction is losing momentum almost by the minute. However, to confirm this loss we need a break above 1.6263 and, more importantly, a break above 1.6348. A break above the later will confirm a new rally higher towards 1.7273 and even higher in the long term.

Trading recommendation:

Wait till the market confirms that wave C is over before buying EUR. Buy only a break above 1.6348, therefore place a buy order at 1.6350.

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#USDX Analysis for September 19, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has broken support and made new lows. Prices never managed to produce a bullish signal and our neutral stance protected us. On the contrary, not only prices reversed upwards but instead were pressured lower after heavy selling following Bernanke's speech. The Dollar Index has now broken important support levels and it has moved outside of the upward longer-term channel.

This is a negative signal for the longer-term trend of the Dollar as it opens the way to much lower support levels after breaking out and below the channel. Dollar weakness could lead the index towards 77.50 in the longer term or even 76. The trend is downward and will only change if prices manage to take back the 81 level and then break above 82.70.

In the short term, prices are expected to make an upward bounce as a counter move to the downward spike. We could expect prices to reach 80.70-80, but with current conditions I do not see a potential trend reversal at this time. Concluding we remain neutral as the volatility in this market does not provide any trading opportunity with a good risk/reward ratio.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 19, 2013 Trend News

Gold during Bernanke's speech was spiking. Our stop was hit and our short position was protected against the rising volatility. Prices reached 1,370 breaking out of the downward sloping channel and reaching the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement. The upward thrust looks like an impulsive wave and we now expect a pull back towards 1,330-40.

The decline from 1,433 is not a clear impulsive (complete 5 wave move) and that is why our first choice is to label it as a corrective wave. Taking into consideration that the move from 1,180 to 1,433 is also a three wave upward move, we can now say that we are in a larger degree corrective pattern, where wave A (1,180-1,433) and wave B (1,433-1,291) are over. We have most probably started an upward wave C now. This wave count will hold as long as prices stay above 1,291. Currently, prices made 5 waves up from 1,291 and we expect a pull back towards 1,330-40.

In the daily chart we observe that prices are back testing the broken trendline. The trend is now changing to upward one and is expected to move towards 1,500 as long as prices stay above 1,291. Confirmation will come if prices break above 1,433. Concluding, we remain neutral to bullish, waiting for a pull back to enter long wit 1,291 as stop.

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