Tuesday, 17 September 2013

Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 17, 2013 Trend News

Gold, as expected by our analysis, completed wave ((4)) yesterday and made a new low to complete 5 descendant waves with the beginning at 1,393. Now we expect another sideways wave 4 formation at a bigger degree that could push the prices even to 1,340. Our bearish view, however, still holds expecting a new lower low below 1,300 to complete 5 downward waves starting from 1,415.



The trend remains downward and the short-term support is found at 1,316. Making, at least, a one-hour candlestick below that level will push prices towards the lows again. Our view remains bearish as long as prices trade below 1,360. The short-term resistance is found at 1,326 and then at 1,335-40. The short-term support lying at 1,316 will push prices towards 1,300-1,298 after it is broken.



The wave pattern continues to unfold downwards in an impulsive manner confirming our view that the low at 1,270 will most probably be broken. The trend remains downward, thus, we remain biased to be short. Bulls do not want the support level of 1,300 to be broken, as this will put a 1,270 low in danger. On the contrary, bulls want prices to test the resistance level of 1,350-60. Concluding we continue to prefer short positions as prices trade below 1,360, targeting 1,280 at least.


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USD/CAD H1 Analysis for September 17, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 17-09-2013 09:30 CET


It looks like the red rectangle area of weekend GAP has been closed as it was mentioned yesterday.


The black channel is an acceleration channel for an alternate count, so if this count is right one, then the price should not break above it. The confluence of levels for black channel, GAP and Weekly Pivot is 1.03364. Only this level breakout would expose Intraday Supply for a test and maybe even golden descending trendline.


On the other hand, the Intraday Support level of 1.0304 should hold, otherwise the price might test the recent lows.


Support/Resistance:


1.0255 - WS1


1.0281 - Intraday Low


1.0304 - Intraday Support


1.0336 - Weekly Pivot


1.0350 - Wave b high


1.0359 - WR1


1.0366 - Intraday Supply


Trading recommendations:


Higher time frame count is a Triangle and bias is to the upside as long as no new low is made. For intraday scalps:


- long entry for a break out of 1.0336 with tight SL and TP at 1.0360


-short entry for a break out of 1.0304 with tight SL and TP at 1.0281



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Monday, 16 September 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 17, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6421


R2: 1.6364


R1: 1.6348


Current Spot: 1.6307


S1: 1.6276


S2: 1.6227


S3: 1.6189


Technical summary:


We are still looking for a break above resistance at 1.6364 to confirm that wave C of the expanded flat correction is finally in place. A break above 1.6364 will not alone confirm that wave C is over, but it will also confirm, that the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.7274 and 1.7800 is developing. That said, we will have to accept the risk of an even deeper decline in wave C as long as resistance at 1.6364 protects the upside. A clear break below 1.6227 will call for a move lower towards 1.6117 before higher direction, but this outcome is not our preferred picture.


Trading recommendation:


If you are long in EUR from 1.6255, then stay long with a stop at 1.6200. If you are not long, wait to buy EUR upon a break above 1.6364 with the same stop at 1.6200.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 17, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 133.37


R2: 133.17


R1: 132.64


Current Spot: 132.38


S1: 132.04


S2: 131.63


S3. 131.22


Technical summary:


We have been trading in a very narrow 40 pips range since yesterday. We are still looking for a break above 132.64 to confirm that red wave ii is over and red wave iii has taken over for the next impulsive rally higher towards 133.37 and 138.00 as the next major target. However, as long as resistance at 132.64 protects the upside we should accept the possibility for a new attack on support at 131.63, and if it is broken, a deeper correction towards 131.37 and, less likely, even lower towards 130.98 is expected before higher movements again.


Trading recommendation:


If you are long in EUR, then stay long with your stop at 130.95. If you are not long yet, then wait for a break above 132.64 to buy EUR with the same stop at 130.95.


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Friday, 13 September 2013

#USDX Analysis for September 13, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has found support at the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement or 81.50. Prices have broken out of the downward sloping trendline but not higher from the previous high at 81.97. We remain neutral as we need to see more evidence that the trend has reversed. This downward corrective wave is very possible to have ended near the 61,8% retracement. That is why we are ready to enter long if prices break above the last high at 81.74 with 81.35 stop and 82 as the first target.



The daily chart below still shows that the index remains close to its longer-term support. The 80.70-81 price range is very important support and should not break if bulls want to see prices challenge the previous high near 85. Our view remains neutral but we feel there are rising posibilities of a trend reversal from this price level.



The longer-term upward sloping channel as shown above supports our view that we should anticipate an upward move if the lower boundaries of the channel are held. The longer prices trade close to the lower boundaries of a channel, the sharper the upward move towards the upper boundaries will be. Concluding we remain neutral and slightly bullish expecting more signals that the trend will be reversing upwards.


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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 13, 2013 Trend News

Gold remained yesterday below the 1,668 resistance which was our line in the sand for our bearish view. Prices broke below the support level of 1,330 and then reached our next target of 1,307 making a new low at 1,304. The daily chart clearly portreys the downward trend and the fact that even in the daily chart, the pattern looks impulsive, strengthens the bearish scenario.



The decline is impulsive and we believe that there is more downside. Critical price level for the bearish scenario that is shown in the chart below, is the 1,355-60 level. If prices manage to break above that price level, then our bearish scenario according Elliott wave count will be canceled. Our favorite Elliott wave count is shown in the chart below.



Still inside the downward sloping channel, we are most probably inside the extension of wave (3) of the 3 downside. The trend is clearly down, resistance is found for the short term at 1,325-30 and this is where one could try to sell with a 1,355 stop. We believe that it is time for a small upward bounce, but we cannot cancel the possibility that this free fall continues towards 1,270.


Concluding we remain bearish. Important trend reversal could be confirmed at 1,355-60 which is the major resistance now. Buying near 1,300 with a 1,270 stop could be justified, but bulls will need to break resistance for this bounce to have a meaning. Otherwise, be ready to sell again if prices reach 1,340-50.


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Wave analysis of the GBP/USD pair for September 13, 2013 Trend News


Wave analysis:


The area of 1.5835-1.5850 provided rather strong resistance for the further rise of the GBP/USD pair. As a result, wave 3 in terms of uptrend starting from the low of August 28, has a rather completed form. Thus, taking into account the fact that the indicators are considerably overbought, we expect further reverse of the pair to the level of figure 58 or even 50 points lower. At the same time dynamics in terms of development of the current uptrend may allow the pair to resume the growth, thus the whole upward channel takes more complex form and wave structure will demand for corresponding corrections.


Targets for down wave:


1.5750 – 23.6% of Fibonacci


1.5695 – 38.2% of Fibonacci


Targets for up wave:


1.5835 – 300.0% of Fibonacci


Summary and trading recommendations:


The British pound decided to complicate the inner wave structure of the uptrend channel. If this assumption is correct, then the rise of the quotes will continue with targets placed near the level 1.5835 and higher to the figure 59. In terms of correctional down wave the decline of the quotes may start with targets placed near the levels of 1.5750 and 1.5695, which is corresponding to 23.6% and 38.2% of Fibonacci. From the current positions the currency pair may start formation of new downward wave. MACD divergence points the readiness of the instrument for the corrective wave. Unsuccessful attempt to break the level of 1.5835 may lead to the reverse of the quotes from the reached highs.


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