Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 12, 2013 Trend News

Gold did not manage to make any significant upward move. Resistance at 1,372 was not broken and prices moved sideways in an overlapping pattern. The correction ended today as the low at 1,355 was broken and prices fell towards our second target of 1,340.

The trend remains downward, but bears should be cautious and to move lower their trailing stops to protect their gains. Important resistance is now found at 1,366. If broken upwards, it can lead prices towards 1,375-80. We believe that prices could go as low as 1,330. Pushing lower could put the bullish scenario in danger.

An important breakdown of support has occured with a new low today. The upward sloping trendline in the daily chart that connects the 1,180 with 1,272 lows was broken earlier today. This puts the bullish scenario in the second place. The bearish scenario becomes our first choice as suppot fails. The short-term support is found at 1,330 and then 1,307. The trend remains downward as lower lows and lower hgihs continue to be the main pattern in the daily chart. We remain bearish as long as prices trade below 1,368. Profit taking is advised to minimise risk because of higher probability of an upward bounce.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 12, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 133.81

R2: 133.24

R1: 132.80

Current Spot: 132.59

S1: 132.34

S2: 131.95

S3: 131.68

Technical summary:

The correction from 133.37 has become slightly deeper than was needed for a perfect form. It has destroyed the bullish outlook, only a break below 131.84 will question the rally from 129.89. However, with a low at 132.34, just one pip below our second support, we should be ready for the next rally higher towards 133.81 and 134.48. In short term a break above 132.80 will be the first good indication that the next rally higher is developing, while a break above 133.24 confirms, that the correction is over and move higher towards 133.81 is ongoing.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 130.75 with your stop at 132.30. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy after a break above 132.80 with the same stop at 132.30.

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#USDX Analysis for September 11, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index did not do much yesterday and traded around the 50% Fibonacci retracement, very likely making a bottom formation. We remain neutral and wait for an entry signal as we believe that it is more possible for the index to continue upwards.

We expect an upward bounce towards at least 82.25. At that price level we should get a clearer picture whether the bullish or bearish scenario will prevail. The bearish scenario sees three waves up from 80.76 and 5 waves down from 82.66. This implies that further downward movement is expected. The important level that would cancel this scenario is the recent high at 82.67 and if prices rise upwards in an impulsive pattern.

The bullish scenario as shown in the daily chart above, sees 5 waves up from 80.76 and a downward correction to the 50% retracement. Bulls should hold 80.76 which is the start of the upward wave move. Prices from 84.75 have not fallen in an impulsive pattern, something that implies that the longer-term trend is not downward. Bulls will need to move upwards in an impulsive pattern and break above 82.67 highs. We remain neutral as there is still no clear sign. Short-term trend remains downward but prices are supported at 81.65 and 81.50.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 11, 2013 Trend News

Gold has made a lower low yesterday confirming our bearish view and the target of 1,350-60. Prices are not accelerating downwards because as shown in the chart below, the daily support trendline, depicted in the chart by the blue upward sloping trendline, stands at 1,355.

Gold, however, is making lower lows and lower highs. This implies that the trend is downward and unless prices break above 1,370 there is high probability that prices will break below support and test the 1,340-30 price level. The short-term resistance is found at 1,370 and at 1,395 which is the most important level. Breaking above those two levels, the road will be open to retest the recent highs at 1,433.

The pattern in the 1 hour chart above confirms the downtrend as prices continue to trade within the downward sloping channel. Breaking above 1,395 will signal the exit of this channel. Prices are supported at 1,360-55 and this could be a short-term bottom. It is very possible that an important bottom is being formed around these levels and a new upward move could start with new highs above 1,433 as a target. We are neutral waiting for any signal to be given by an upward or downward break of the price levels we mentioned earlier.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 11, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6676

R2: 1.6625

R1: 1.6565

Current Spot: 1.6478

S1: 1.6409

S2: 1.6383

S3: 1.6325

Technical summary:

We are not really getting anywhere as this pair trades sideways. The big question is, of cause, whether this is bottom-consolidation and soon we will see a break above resistance at 1.6565 as the first good indication, that this wave ii is finally over and wave iii higher is developing for a rally higher towards 1.7274 followed by 1.7780 as the next major target. Or is this just another consolidation before the next push lower towards the invalidation point at 1.6325. If we at any time break below 1.6325, my preferred count will be invalidated and the alternate downward count steps up to be the preferred count. The alternate count calls for a continuation lower towards 1.6117 before the c-wave of an expanded flat correction finally comes to the end and wave iii higher can develop.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR with a stop at 1.6320. If you are not long in EUR, wait for buying EUR upon a break above 1.6565 with the same stop at 1.6320.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 11, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 134.48

R2: 134.14

R1: 133.81

Current Spot: 133.27

S1: 132.72

S2: 132.35

S3: 131.95

Technical summary:

This pair is working its way higher towards the perfect target at 134.48 after we have begun the thrust out of the triangle consolidation. We will likely see a minor top at 134.14 for a correction towards 133.81, just follow the next rally higher to the ideal target at 134.48. Once at 134.48 we should expect a new correction towards 132.72 before the next impulsive rally higher towards 138.62. As we are in an impulsive wave higher, we should expect, that corrections will tend to be relatively small.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 130.75 and move your stop higher to 132.30. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 132.72 with the same stop at 132.30.

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#USDX Analysis for September 10, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index fell within our target of 82-81.80 as mentioned in yesterday's post. The downward correction could be over now as prices retraced 50% of the entire rise from 80.76.

The Dollar Index is very possible to have completed 5 waves from the low upwards, although the formation is not perfect. The decline has made a low at the 50% retracement of the entire upward move from 80.76 to 82.67. This is scenario implies that if prices start again to move upwards in an impulsive pattern, then we can see a new high soon as a part of a new wave structure. The decline, however, shows a very interesting pattern. The decline as shown in the 1-hour chart looks like another 5 wave downward move. Therefore, the correction may only have finished wave A downwards and we can see an ascending wave B and a descending wave C to complete the correction from 82.67.

The scenarios are equally possible as the decline is impulsive and this means further downwside pressures are to be expected. We could see an upward bounce towards 82.20-30 as the part of wave B corection and then a new low with wave C towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. However, if prices manage to break above 82.55, this scenario will decrease chances. Because of the wave scenarios are equally possible and the current price action shows possibility of a bounce we are cautiously bullish as long as prices trade above 81.71. Now, at 81,87, we could enter half exposure than normal long and wait for a new high above 82.67 to add to our positions. This way, in case of a correction, it is not over and a new low towards the 61.8% retracement is made, we would risk less than usually.

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